This sudden surge in April for the Switch is interesting. I wonder if it can somewhat keep it or if it will go down in the next few weeks/months.

From what I hear, Japanese retailer Geo has had a deal going where you can get a Switch OLED and other items discounted when bought together. This would explain the boost in Switch sales along with games like It Takes Two. The deal ends this week so sales may be close to the same again next week too.

Worldwide we have a different picture, though.

Theres really no competition. Should do another 7-8 million in Japan.

Hardware sales are 71,000. Most of those are probably new users. They're going to want a game to play with their new game system. Doesn't seem unlikely that somewhere around 1/5 of them would choose Mario Kart as that game.

35M is a good floor. Personally, I think Switch will end up selling 38.08M in Japan.
5.43M to go. I can see that being reached in a minimum of 3 years. This year will end with Japan selling more than 3M, and the 2.43M will be met in the 2 years after the successor releases.

35M is very achievable. 38.08M could become a challenge depending on Nintendo.

PS5 really seems to have run out of steam in Japan.
FF7, Rise of the Ronin, and Dragon's Dogma 2 all in quick succession did little to spark interest.

That’s oddly specific