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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

Hey, at least this means people can recycle their November predictions for December. Far more likely they'll come closer now, right?



 

 

 

 

 

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Zippy6 said:

So as best case scenario is 1.06m for PS5 and 0.58m for XSX, PS5 could potentially not be too far behind Nov 2016 PS4, but XSX is absolutely miles off Xbox One 2016.

PS4 Nov 2016 = 1.1m
PS5 Nov 2023 = <1.06m
XBO Nov 2016 = 1.01m
XBS Nov 2023 = <0.58m

Xbox Series sales are going to be around half of Xbox One sales in the equivalent month?

Did 2022 November NPD include Cyber Monday deals? 



These are bad numbers for just about everyone.

Sony needs a better holiday than that to hit their sales targets unless their plan is to flood the retail channel with stock in like Feb/March and run. Spider-Man 2 should be doing more to move hardware than this.

Switch 1 is definitely showing its age and Mario hasn't been able to give it an uplift. No.3 behind even XBox is not great. Switch 2 has to be 2024 and at this point, the sooner the better. If they can get it out by summer 2024 or something at this point, I think you would want to do that. 

XBox is well ... XBox, this generation seems like a write off for them and will just be used to get all their new acquired studios up to speed for the next hardware. At least they can crow about being no.2 in units sold for November above Switch.





PotentHerbs said:

Did 2022 November NPD include Cyber Monday deals? 

No, it ended the Saturday before.



 

 

 

 

 

Shtinamin_ said:

Oh, sorry. I should've read better.
Regarding the US in November 2023 I predict

Hardware:
1.PS5 1.13M
2. Switch 0.8M
3. Xbox Series 0.5M

Software:
Same as my worldwide prediction

My prediction is pretty spot on.
VGChartz Estimates Nov 2023 Circana VGChartz Post:
PS5: 1.04M
Xbox Series X/S: 0.57M (578k)
Switch: 0.57M (573k)
The only thing I was wrong about was Switch selling better than Xbox Series, which came as a surprise to me.
Not bad I think. *pats back* lol
But still rather disappointing that the numbers are that low for all of them.

Last edited by Shtinamin_ - on 13 December 2023

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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trunkswd said:
DonFerrari said:

We need to see how much impact cyber monday transfer from one month to the other from the 2 years explain this. YoY for YTD it is pretty flat (1% below or above).

And the 20% is revenue or units? Because with the discounts it could have the same units but severe drop in rev.

The >20% drop for all three is units sold and not revenue.

I saw it after I asked, thanks.

Asked Mat as well if we didn't had Cyber Monday on November last year how the drop would change.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Desperation mode increases. 



Wow I nailed it with mario wonder vs spiderman, damn I'm good



kazuyamishima said:

Desperation mode increases. 

Woah, $149.99 at Costco...

What's PS5 and Switch cost over there?



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

kazuyamishima said:

Desperation mode increases. 

Wow! Xbox Series S getting closer to "survival" mode. Circana showing that sales numbers are melting! Xbox leadership needs to do something, this may become a disaster for Xbox