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Forums - Sales Discussion - November Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread + Predictions

trunkswd on 13 December 2023
kazuyamishima said:

It doesn’t contains Cyber Monday week numbers but those results are terrible.

Switch drop is really big considering the price and that the Mario Kart bundle alongside lite bundles started in October, it seems Switch 2 will definitely launch in 2024.

Switch drop is probably the biggest as it came in 3rd this year, while last year it outsold Xbox.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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UnderwaterFunktown on 13 December 2023

Yikes, honestly kinda shocking, but I suppose the fact that PS5 and Switch have had deals since october could have cannibalized their november sales. Only their october sales weren't that great either...



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Zippy6 on 13 December 2023
Zippy6 said:

>20% units decline YoY for everyone. Pretty terrible all around.

#1 PS5, #2 Xbox, #3 Switch in both units and revenue.

Last year estimates were this: 

PS5 - 1328k
NSW - 920k est.
XBS - 730k

So even if we assume the minimum decline of 20% for both PS5/XSX we get at best this:

PS5 - 1062k (-20%)
XBS - 584k (-20%)
NSW - 583k (-36% as has to be below Xbox)

So as best case scenario is 1.06m for PS5 and 0.58m for XSX, PS5 could potentially not be too far behind Nov 2016 PS4, but XSX is absolutely miles off Xbox One 2016.

PS4 Nov 2016 = 1.1m
PS5 Nov 2023 = <1.06m
XBO Nov 2016 = 1.01m
XBS Nov 2023 = <0.58m

Xbox Series sales are going to be around half of Xbox One sales in the equivalent month?



Console Launch Aligned Sales Charts

Famitsu Sales Database

VGChartz Monthly Sales Database

kazuyamishima on 13 December 2023
trunkswd said:
kazuyamishima said:

It doesn’t contains Cyber Monday week numbers but those results are terrible.

Switch drop is really big considering the price and that the Mario Kart bundle alongside lite bundles started in October, it seems Switch 2 will definitely launch in 2024.

Switch drop is probably the biggest as it came in 3rd this year, while last year it outsold Xbox.

Yeah, Nintendo will be Silly if they delay switch 2 to 2025.

UnderwaterFunktown said:

Yikes, honestly kinda shocking, but I suppose the fact that PS5 and Switch have had deals since october could have cannibalized their november sales. Only their october sales weren't that great either...

Switch deals started in October 6th, PS5 deals started in November 8th. 



trunkswd on 13 December 2023

I'll get working on the Americas estimates for November. From what I am seeing PS5 and XS are likely down 21%-23% YoY and Switch down closer to 40% to have it a little bit below XS.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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UnderwaterFunktown on 13 December 2023
kazuyamishima said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

Yikes, honestly kinda shocking, but I suppose the fact that PS5 and Switch have had deals since october could have cannibalized their november sales. Only their october sales weren't that great either...

Switch deals started in October 6th, PS5 deals started in November 8th. 

There were PS5 deals earlier at several retailers, some all the way back in September, but the biggest deals were ofc in november yeah.



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DonFerrari on 13 December 2023

We need to see how much impact cyber monday transfer from one month to the other from the 2 years explain this. YoY for YTD it is pretty flat (1% below or above).

And the 20% is revenue or units? Because with the discounts it could have the same units but severe drop in rev.



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trunkswd on 13 December 2023
DonFerrari said:

We need to see how much impact cyber monday transfer from one month to the other from the 2 years explain this. YoY for YTD it is pretty flat (1% below or above).

And the 20% is revenue or units? Because with the discounts it could have the same units but severe drop in rev.

The >20% drop for all three is units sold and not revenue.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Shtinamin_ on 13 December 2023

wow, looks like no one had any income for fun this year. It's gonna be a blue Christmas for everyone. Very little presents, and very little Christmas cheer.
What happened to the economy?
Honestly, very disappointing numbers for all of the systems in the US for November. RIP



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

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PotentHerbs on 13 December 2023

It looks like the PlayStation 5 has exhausted its appeal at the $500 price point. While there were bundles, the deals in Europe were much better, and if Cyber Monday sales are not included in this report, the PS5 could very well be up YoY in December. 

I would wait for overall results to see if Sony can manage to hit their 25M projection. It seems like Europe and Japan are doing much better YoY. By extension I think that would include RoTW and Asia.