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Forums - Sales Discussion - October Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread

CosmicSex on 16 November 2023
trunkswd said:
UnderwaterFunktown said:

Hardware revenue being down 23 % does not sound good, though I suppose there have been more deals this year. Neither Switch or PS5 had a particularly great October last year so I suspect Xbox is down the most.

PS5 was #1 last year by a decent amount.

October 2022 (PS5 and XS figures were leaked, while NS are estimates with it being in 3rd):

  1. PS5: 456,317
  2. XS: 261,106
  3. NS: 255,165

I'm still working on the estimates for October 2023, but they should be roughly around this for the US unless more data comes in:

  1. PS5: ~325K
  2. NS: ~205K
  3. XS: ~200K

You probably already saw this but Mat confirmed that the XSeries is -11% of XBOne when aligned and PS5 is +9% of PS4 when aligned in the US.  This will make is a lot easier to figure out what the US numbers are for October 2023.

Last edited by CosmicSex - on 16 November 2023

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Geralt99 on 16 November 2023
CosmicSex said:
trunkswd said:

PS5 was #1 last year by a decent amount.

October 2022 (PS5 and XS figures were leaked, while NS are estimates with it being in 3rd):

  1. PS5: 456,317
  2. XS: 261,106
  3. NS: 255,165

I'm still working on the estimates for October 2023, but they should be roughly around this for the US unless more data comes in:

  1. PS5: ~325K
  2. NS: ~205K
  3. XS: ~200K

You probably already saw this but Mat confirmed that the XSeries is -11% of XBOne when aligned and PS5 is +9% of PS4 when aligned in the US.  This will make is a lot easier to figure out what the US numbers are for October 2023.

You're right. Just looked it up and found this from mat piscatella himself.

PS5 is 9% ahead of PS4 lauch alligned.

Series is 11% behind xone launch alligned.

Definitely need to be adjusted now that we have concrete data. 



trunkswd on 16 November 2023
CosmicSex said:
trunkswd said:

PS5 was #1 last year by a decent amount.

October 2022 (PS5 and XS figures were leaked, while NS are estimates with it being in 3rd):

  1. PS5: 456,317
  2. XS: 261,106
  3. NS: 255,165

I'm still working on the estimates for October 2023, but they should be roughly around this for the US unless more data comes in:

  1. PS5: ~325K
  2. NS: ~205K
  3. XS: ~200K

You probably already saw this but Mat confirmed that the XSeries is -11% of XBOne when aligned and PS5 is +9% of PS4 when aligned in the US.  This will make is a lot easier to figure out what the US numbers are for October 2022.

Yeah I saw that comment. I did some tweaks to our estimates (mostly to PS4 and X1 as going through historical data from before I took over the estimates we had them both a little too high through October 2016, so I had to shift sales to later in their lifetimes), so we are within rounding for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S compared to the previous generation.

We have PS4 at 14.83M compared to 16.10M for PS5. And have Xbox One at 13.35M and Xbox Series X|S at 11.88M. Before the tweaks we had PS5 up ~8% and XS down ~12%. Now we have PS5 up 8.6% and XS down 11%.

With potential rounding for PS5 (8.5% to 9.4%) we are talking ~16.09M-16.23M and for XS (-10.5% to -11.4%) we are talking ~11.80M-11.94M.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

CosmicSex on 16 November 2023
trunkswd said:

Yeah I saw that comment. I did some tweaks to our estimates (mostly to PS4 and X1 as going through historical data from before I took over the estimates we had them both a little too high through October 2016, so I had to shift sales to later in their lifetimes), so we are within rounding for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S compared to the previous generation.

We have PS4 at 14.83M compared to 16.10M for PS5. And have Xbox One at 13.35M and Xbox Series X|S at 11.88M. Before the tweaks we had PS5 up ~8% and XS down ~12%. Now we have PS5 up 8.6% and XS down 11%.

With potential rounding for PS5 (8.5% to 9.4%) we are talking ~16.09M-16.23M and for XS (-10.5% to -11.4%) we are talking ~11.80M-11.94M.

Thats pretty good tracking even before those adjustments



zeldaring on 16 November 2023

did ps5 do 350k or 325k?



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curl-6 on 16 November 2023

Jesus, not to sound like I'm trolling, but Xbox Series being 11% behind the Xbone is just dismal.

And coming in third behind a system in it's 7th year, in Xbox's third year, in it's strongest territory no less... Xbox feels like a dead man walking.



trunkswd on 16 November 2023
zeldaring said:

did ps5 do 350k or 325k?

We put our estimates for the PS5 in the US at 331,491 for October.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

trunkswd on 16 November 2023
curl-6 said:

Jesus, not to sound like I'm trolling, but Xbox Series being 11% behind the Xbone is just dismal.

And coming in third behind a system in it's 7th year, in Xbox's third year, in it's strongest territory no less... Xbox feels like a dead man walking.

It isn't great, but in the end selling a little below or around the same as Xbox One isn't the worst. Nowhere near a Wii U or PS Vita level disaster anyway. Plus Xbox is less focused on the console market as it now releases all games day 1 on PC.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTube. Follow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown | Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

curl-6 on 16 November 2023
trunkswd said:
curl-6 said:

Jesus, not to sound like I'm trolling, but Xbox Series being 11% behind the Xbone is just dismal.

And coming in third behind a system in it's 7th year, in Xbox's third year, in it's strongest territory no less... Xbox feels like a dead man walking.

It isn't great, but in the end selling a little below or around the same as Xbox One isn't the worst. Nowhere near a Wii U or PS Vita level disaster anyway. Plus Xbox is less focused on the console market as it now releases all games day 1 on PC.

It's not a disaster, but for a brand that once fought Playstation to a practical tie in the 7th gen, they've declined a lot.



DroidKnight on 16 November 2023
curl-6 said:

Jesus, not to sound like I'm trolling, but Xbox Series being 11% behind the Xbone is just dismal.

And coming in third behind a system in it's 7th year, in Xbox's third year, in it's strongest territory no less... Xbox feels like a dead man walking.

I had higher expectations for it.  For worldwide lifetime sales I had high predictions, but those predictions no longer look reachable.  It's still going to have many big game releases coming up, and how much those will help hardware sales is unknown.  I don't believe it has had it's peak years yet, but what the hell do I know?  The Xbox Series isn't even halfway through the generation yet, so they have plenty of time to alter their hardware goals and build up enthusiasm.  I don't think they have given up on hardware or the brand.  With all the recent acquisitions and employee promotions with strategic repositioning of roles; it appears they are laying down the foundation for a promising future.  

I wouldn't call time of death just yet.



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.