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Forums - Sales Discussion - October Circana (NPD) 2023 Thread

trunkswd on 15 November 2023
Geralt99 said:
trunkswd said:

PS5 was #1 last year by a decent amount.

October 2022 (PS5 and XS figures were leaked, while NS are estimates with it being in 3rd):

  1. PS5: 456,317
  2. XS: 261,106
  3. NS: 255,165

I'm still working on the estimates for October 2023, but they should be roughly around this for the US unless more data comes in:

  1. PS5: ~325K
  2. NS: ~205K
  3. XS: ~200K

Mat said double digit decline for all 3 consoles and didn't specify which had declined the most.

So why a higher percentage decline for PS5 when there is clearly no concrete info on that?

I'm still working on it, but looking at it more I am inclined to go with 330K for PS5. % drop that is 27.7% for PS5, 23.4% for XS, and 19.7% for NS. PS5 had more to fall with how much higher it was a year ago than the other consoles. Plus there is better Xbox Series X stock compared to last year. With the PS5 'slim' launching in November it is possible some people decided to wait for the new model.

Last edited by trunkswd - on 15 November 2023

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UnderwaterFunktown on 15 November 2023
trunkswd said:
Geralt99 said:

Mat said double digit decline for all 3 consoles and didn't specify which had declined the most.

So why a higher percentage decline for PS5 when there is clearly no concrete info on that?

I'm still working on it, but looking at it more I am inclined to go with 330K for PS5. % drop that is 27.7% for PS5, 23.4% for XS, and 19.7% for NS. PS5 had more to fall with how much higher it was a year ago than the other consoles. Plus there is better Xbox Series X stock compared to last year. With the PS5 'slim' launching in November it is possible some people decided to wait for the new model.

True but PS5 is also the only console that has seen growth this year in the US while the others have been down most months, so if I had to guess I'd expect it to have the lowest drop. No way to know for sure though.



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shikamaru317 on 15 November 2023

I'm assuming that Epic doesn't release digital numbers to Circana, because Alan Wake 2 isn't on the top 20 list and it was a digital only release. Even though it only released with 4 days left in the month, it surely would have made at least top 20 if Epic released digital numbers to Circana.



kenjab on 15 November 2023
shikamaru317 said:

I'm assuming that Epic doesn't release digital numbers to Circana, because Alan Wake 2 isn't on the top 20 list and it was a digital only release. Even though it only released with 4 days left in the month, it surely would have made at least top 20 if Epic released digital numbers to Circana.

This is correct.



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DekutheEvilClown on 15 November 2023

Alan Wake 2 was the 11th best selling PS5 game on PSN in North America for October, 5th in Europe. While that’s not spectacular I believe Control didn’t actually make the top 20 at all. Remedy’s fan base skews very heavily towards PC.

Interesting fact about Control: it sold better in its second year than it’s first. The second year is when it got its steam release…



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Farsala on 15 November 2023
shikamaru317 said:

I'm assuming that Epic doesn't release digital numbers to Circana, because Alan Wake 2 isn't on the top 20 list and it was a digital only release. Even though it only released with 4 days left in the month, it surely would have made at least top 20 if Epic released digital numbers to Circana.

I really don't think it would have charted anyway. Disgaea 7 also released in October and didn't chart. October was a very competitive month.



kazuyamishima on 15 November 2023

Mario Red OLED, Switch Lite Bundles with Animal Crossing, and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundles. ALL of them were released on October 6th.
This didn't do anything to prevent further decline for the Switch, estimates are around 205K for the whole month.

Spidey 2 didn't prevent a decline for the PS5 and Xbox is having some decent stock.

November and December seem that will go to the PS5.

YTD US Sales (Estimates):
- PS5 4.25m units
- Nintendo Switch 2.985m units
- Xbox Series X/S 2.160m units.



curl-6 on 15 November 2023

Great to see Hogwarts Legacy still at #1 YTD, even up against juggernaughts like Tears of the Kingdom and Diablo 4; it's an excellent game and it deserves its success.

On the flipside, ouch at Forza, a debut at #17 for one of Xbox's flagship franchises is a testiment to how far their brand has diminished.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 15 November 2023

JRPGfan on 15 November 2023

"The Nintendo Switch was second best-selling console in terms of units sold,..... " Wow.



Geralt99 on 16 November 2023
trunkswd said:
Geralt99 said:

Mat said double digit decline for all 3 consoles and didn't specify which had declined the most.

So why a higher percentage decline for PS5 when there is clearly no concrete info on that?

I'm still working on it, but looking at it more I am inclined to go with 330K for PS5. % drop that is 27.7% for PS5, 23.4% for XS, and 19.7% for NS. PS5 had more to fall with how much higher it was a year ago than the other consoles. Plus there is better Xbox Series X stock compared to last year. With the PS5 'slim' launching in November it is possible some people decided to wait for the new model.

Still feel like all 3 should have the similar  percentage decline as per Mat piscatella's info.