Super Mario Odyssey (all-new 3D Mario game) vs. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (2D Mario port) head to head in fiscal years ending March...

2020: 2.97m vs. 3.29m
2021: 3.42m vs. 3.84m
2022: 2.67m vs. 2.86m
2023: 2.26m vs. 2.11m

Your assumption is certainly not based on sales data. When new game vs. old game already favors 2D Mario, then new game vs. new game will favor 2D Mario even more.

And yet Odyssey is like 10m in front of NSMBUD. Not a good argument when you cherry pick your data haha. So yeah, I don't base my idea on cherry picked sales data haha. Also Odyssey came out 2017 as a very hyped up game with huge launch, while NSMBUD came out in 2019 with little fanfare so it's all legs. Naturally a game that launched huge and launched significantly earlier is gonna tend to have less legs despite being far more popular. Also note that even your cherry picked sales data shows that Odyssey's legs are now rising over NSMBUD, despite having a 10m sales lead and launching earlier.

Regardless, I'm not sure what your argument has to do with the part of my comment you bolded. When next gen launches the next 3D Mario will indeed by the Mario game everyone is hyped about from then on. Especially since a new generation will have started. Your sales data doesn't change those facts.

New 3D Mario was heavily favored over old 2D Mario. When next gen launches we're gonna again have a new 3D Mario and an old 2D Mario...but TotK is still gonna be the new Zelda for many more years.

I respect your argument that Wonder might pass TotK in sales, but you're losing the case with your comment here that uses partial data to try to make a claim that simply isn't true. Show the whole data set and suddenly your argument is entirely false haha

I dunno, I think NSMBWii was considered pretty great, I never got the feeling that anyway thought it was just decent. At that point the New series was fresh and exciting, while NSMBUD may be considered just decent and stale, that was not at all the case for the Wii game. The first "New" game on DS was regarded very highly, bringing back 2D Mario and all, and the Wii game was bringing the series to a console. There was a lot of hype for bringing "New" to console as the first 2D Mario on a console in three generations! It was also the first console multiplayer (at the same time) Mario game. When you consider the context, NSMBWii was a much bigger deal than Wonder.

Wonder doesn't quite have that aura of "omg 2D Mario is back!!". It's more, "finally not a 'New' game!"

So again, it's gonna come down to how good it is. Yes 2D Mario should have an potential audience even bigger than open world Zelda, though not much bigger cuz even little kids love open world Zelda no matter how "intimidating" you might say it is. And while Wonder is obviously gonna be hyped and people are gonna be excited for it, its not gonna be anywhere near the level of TotK hype. So I think the question comes down to, does Wonder blow people away and does it become THE game in the industry that everyone wants to play this holiday season? Honestly I strongly doubt that. And if it's not I don't see it reaching TotK levels. I mean yeah it's gonna blow past 20m for sure cuz it should destroy NSMBUD in sales, but taking on TotK is a different beast entirely.

But of course we'll also have to see how TotK's legs are. Is TotK still selling a lot and is it gonna chase after BotW? We only have the first 50 days of sales numbers for it so we don't yet know what its legs are gonna be. I could see both these games ending up 4th and 5th on Switch behind Smash & BotW and ahead of Odyssey. But I see Wonder more likely ending up in high 20 millions to potentially hitting 30 million and TotK ending up in low to mid 30 millions in best case sales scenario for both

Anyway, time to watch that Wonder Direct and get a better idea what the game is gonna be like. I was left fairly unsure about Wonder after that initial teaser video.

UPDATE:

Just watched the Direct. Game looks pretty awesome. Chock full of new ideas. I'm excited for it. I'm gonna say I can see this thing hitting 30m, but I hope to see TotK try to match BotW sales and end up around 35m. Definitely can see both TotK and Wonder passing 30m, just think TotK will still be selling like 4 years from now while Wonder won't be. For most of next gen (assuming backwards compatibility) TotK is still gonna be the Zelda game to play, while from day 1 on next gen presumably the next 3D Mario is gonna be the Mario game to play instead of Wonder.

Wonder's the first 2D Mario in 11 years and the first one that's not limited to the New Soup formula since 1990. It's also arriving at a time when the Mario movie has given the brand a massive boost. It is absolutely gonna be as big a deal as NSMBWii.

2D Mario is a series that defined the childhood of a generation of gamers, who are now adults with kids of their own. It's open to casual players in a way that TOTK simply isn't. It's not certain that it will outsell TOTK as that game is a phenomenon unto itself, but Mario absolutely has a shot at doing so.

Yoshi looks weird.

Especially when he has something in his mouth.

I think you are underestimating TotK's appeal among casual players.

The irony

Yeah Wonder is the first new 2D Mario in 11 years, since one generation ago. "New Wii" was the first 2D Mario on a console in 3 generations! Also both "New WiiU" and Mario Maker 2 are on Switch. So it's not like there has been NO 2D Mario lately like there was when "New Wii" came out when the last 2D Mario had been all the way back on the SNES! And not sure where you are getting this not since 1990 idea from. SMW came out in 90/91/92, Yoshi's Island came out in '95, and New Wii and New WiiU came out in 2009, 2012, and re-released in 2019....you can't just pretend like those two console "New" games didn't come out, as well as Yoshi's Island. Using that logic I can just ignore BotW and say TotK is the first ever open world zelda in infinite years lol. Let's stick to facts!

Yes its going to be a big deal, and yeah I expect it to sell at least as well as "New Wii" did. I'm not in any way discounting it. But beating New Wii is probably going to be easier than beating TotK, and possibly significantly so.

This is the first real Mario game for real Nintendo gamers since NSMB Wii. Wii had Mario Bros, Super Mario Bros, SMB 2, SMB 3 and SM World.

I think you are underestimating TotK's appeal among casual players. I think open world Zelda has proved to have just as much popularity with casual players as 2D Mario ever has. I'm always surprised to hear friend's kids as well as my non-gamer friends themselves who hardly ever play games who were super into BotW and were very excited for TotK. So I don't think the "2D Mario has the casuals" argument holds weight when we are comparing it to open world Zelda. BotW made Zelda so much more popular in part because it made Zelda fans out of millions of casual gamers.

Yeah Wonder is the first new 2D Mario in 11 years, since one generation ago. "New Wii" was the first 2D Mario on a console in 3 generations! Also both "New WiiU" and Mario Maker 2 are on Switch. So it's not like there has been NO 2D Mario lately like there was when "New Wii" came out when the last 2D Mario had been all the way back on the SNES! And not sure where you are getting this not since 1990 idea from. SMW came out in 90/91/92, Yoshi's Island came out in '95, and New Wii and New WiiU came out in 2009, 2012, and re-released in 2019....you can't just pretend like those two console "New" games didn't come out, as well as Yoshi's Island. Using that logic I can just ignore BotW and say TotK is the first ever open world zelda in infinite years lol. Let's stick to facts!

Yes its going to be a big deal, and yeah I expect it to sell at least as well as "New Wii" did. I'm not in any way discounting it. But beating New Wii is probably going to be easier than beating TotK, and possibly significantly so.

The NSMB series never evoked the same love or acclaim as the NES/SNES 2D Marios though, so for many Wonder is the first 2D Mario in 33 years that's actually original and exciting. (World came out first in 1990 in Japan, then 1991 in America) Yoshi's Island isn't really a "2D Mario" game either as you play as Yoshi. When it comes to reception, you can't discount how people FEEL about something, as that as much as "facts" determines purchasing behaviour.

TOTK has more casual appeal then pre-BOTW Zelda ever had, but 2D Mario is on another level, as a simple 2D sidescroller it can be played by folks for whom Zelda would just be too complicated. Folks like my parents probably wouldn't be able to get passed the tutorial in TOTK but they sure as heck can play 2D Mario.