curl-6 said:
Slownenberg said:
I dunno, I think NSMBWii was considered pretty great, I never got the feeling that anyway thought it was just decent. At that point the New series was fresh and exciting, while NSMBUD may be considered just decent and stale, that was not at all the case for the Wii game. The first "New" game on DS was regarded very highly, bringing back 2D Mario and all, and the Wii game was bringing the series to a console. There was a lot of hype for bringing "New" to console as the first 2D Mario on a console in three generations! It was also the first console multiplayer (at the same time) Mario game. When you consider the context, NSMBWii was a much bigger deal than Wonder. Wonder doesn't quite have that aura of "omg 2D Mario is back!!". It's more, "finally not a 'New' game!" So again, it's gonna come down to how good it is. Yes 2D Mario should have an potential audience even bigger than open world Zelda, though not much bigger cuz even little kids love open world Zelda no matter how "intimidating" you might say it is. And while Wonder is obviously gonna be hyped and people are gonna be excited for it, its not gonna be anywhere near the level of TotK hype. So I think the question comes down to, does Wonder blow people away and does it become THE game in the industry that everyone wants to play this holiday season? Honestly I strongly doubt that. And if it's not I don't see it reaching TotK levels. I mean yeah it's gonna blow past 20m for sure cuz it should destroy NSMBUD in sales, but taking on TotK is a different beast entirely. But of course we'll also have to see how TotK's legs are. Is TotK still selling a lot and is it gonna chase after BotW? We only have the first 50 days of sales numbers for it so we don't yet know what its legs are gonna be. I could see both these games ending up 4th and 5th on Switch behind Smash & BotW and ahead of Odyssey. But I see Wonder more likely ending up in high 20 millions to potentially hitting 30 million and TotK ending up in low to mid 30 millions in best case sales scenario for both Anyway, time to watch that Wonder Direct and get a better idea what the game is gonna be like. I was left fairly unsure about Wonder after that initial teaser video. UPDATE: Just watched the Direct. Game looks pretty awesome. Chock full of new ideas. I'm excited for it. I'm gonna say I can see this thing hitting 30m, but I hope to see TotK try to match BotW sales and end up around 35m. Definitely can see both TotK and Wonder passing 30m, just think TotK will still be selling like 4 years from now while Wonder won't be. For most of next gen (assuming backwards compatibility) TotK is still gonna be the Zelda game to play, while from day 1 on next gen presumably the next 3D Mario is gonna be the Mario game to play instead of Wonder. |
Wonder's the first 2D Mario in 11 years and the first one that's not limited to the New Soup formula since 1990. It's also arriving at a time when the Mario movie has given the brand a massive boost. It is absolutely gonna be as big a deal as NSMBWii. 2D Mario is a series that defined the childhood of a generation of gamers, who are now adults with kids of their own. It's open to casual players in a way that TOTK simply isn't. It's not certain that it will outsell TOTK as that game is a phenomenon unto itself, but Mario absolutely has a shot at doing so. |
I think you are underestimating TotK's appeal among casual players. I think open world Zelda has proved to have just as much popularity with casual players as 2D Mario ever has. I'm always surprised to hear friend's kids as well as my non-gamer friends themselves who hardly ever play games who were super into BotW and were very excited for TotK. So I don't think the "2D Mario has the casuals" argument holds weight when we are comparing it to open world Zelda. BotW made Zelda so much more popular in part because it made Zelda fans out of millions of casual gamers.
Yeah Wonder is the first new 2D Mario in 11 years, since one generation ago. "New Wii" was the first 2D Mario on a console in 3 generations! Also both "New WiiU" and Mario Maker 2 are on Switch. So it's not like there has been NO 2D Mario lately like there was when "New Wii" came out when the last 2D Mario had been all the way back on the SNES! And not sure where you are getting this not since 1990 idea from. SMW came out in 90/91/92, Yoshi's Island came out in '95, and New Wii and New WiiU came out in 2009, 2012, and re-released in 2019....you can't just pretend like those two console "New" games didn't come out, as well as Yoshi's Island. Using that logic I can just ignore BotW and say TotK is the first ever open world zelda in infinite years lol. Let's stick to facts!
Yes its going to be a big deal, and yeah I expect it to sell at least as well as "New Wii" did. I'm not in any way discounting it. But beating New Wii is probably going to be easier than beating TotK, and possibly significantly so.
