Some of you guys are really sleeping on Mario Bros Wonder.
This is the first new mainline 2D Mario in over a decade and the first one that's not in the NSMB mold since 1990, riding the wake of the biggest video game movie success of all time and launching on a 130 million install base that has shattered the software records of almost every Nintendo franchise that has released on it.
It's gonna be gargantuan.

I think that depends a lot on how good it is. If it had years to get leggy sales like NSMBUD did then sure it would have crazy sales cuz even the mediocre last gen stale NSMBUD has legged it out looking like it may hit 20m eventually. But next gen is probably gonna be starting a year after Wonder comes out and I'm not sure it's gonna have much legs beyond that year. It's gonna be a huge christmas title sure, could very well sell 20m in its holiday launch quarter, but this thread is comparing it to Nintendo's biggest and probably most desired game of all time, which sold 10m in 3 days. I don't really see 2D Mario blowing away the masses the way something like 3D Mario or open world Zelda does. It's gonna be super popular, but is it going to be open world Zelda popular??? I doubt it.

Now if tomorrow when they show it off it looks to be something truly special and ground breaking that might change the story. But just a new 2D Mario I don't think is gonna beat out Nintendo's most looked forward game of all time which was TotK.

Being high quality would help, but NSMBWii was generally considered just decent and sold over 30 million on a smaller install base than Switch, plus look what just happened with Pokemon Scarlet and Violet selling a ton despite having serious quality issues.

I wouldn't underestimate the draw of 2D Mario; it may not have the "wow" factor of TOTK, but it is much more accessible since it can be played and enjoyed by many people who would find games like Zelda just way too intimidating.

To echo Rol, back when NSMBWii came out people didn't think a 2D game in 2009 would outsell highly acclaimed 3D heavy hitters like Mario Galaxy or Twilight Princess, yet it did.

That direct is making Wonder look pretty great and if reception is positive it should go past 30m. Most series on Switch have reached new heights so outselling NSMB DS and Wii wouldn't be a surprise at all so Mario has the advantage here.

Because SMO is not a main series Mario game. Nintendo calls it "Super Mario", but Mario doesn't even turn Super in it.

Nah, TotK is the perfect comparison, because people think it's insurmountable.

In a pleasantly surprising turn of events, there was a SMB Wonder Direct today. Now it's a done deal that Mario will reign supreme, because Wonder isn't just NSMB in a new coat. Nintendo put in a lot more effort than that. Doesn't mean it's perfect, but it is a big step up from what they've done after the success of NSMB on the DS in the follow-up games.

I can already tell you that critical acclaim is pointless. The gaming media is heavily biased towards 3D Mario games, so no matter how good Wonder is, the best it can hope for is to get within 5 points of SMO's metascore. But gamers won't care.

Your logic regarding legs is some of the worst I've seen in the last few years. As if a 3D Mario could cut the legs of a REAL Mario game. You are ridiculous. You are like the guys who say that the new Sonic game looks better than the new Mario game. We've had this happening for SMB Wonder (LOL at Sonic Superstars), but it was even more laughable ten years ago when people bashed Super Mario 3D World in comparison to Sonic Lost World. A decade later this comparison appears completely absurd, but it really happened back in the day.

Sidenote: Nintendo announced a special Mario OLED model today. I hope Nintendo is prepared to clear their hardware forecast three months ahead of schedule, because it would be sad if they didn't produce enough consoles for this holiday season.

2023 shall go down in history as the year when Switch lifetime sales were declared to fall short of the DS and PS2, only to ride high momentum into 2024 on the back of the fastest-selling exclusive in video game history (Tears of the Kingdom) that ended up losing its title only six months later.

SMB Wonder's floor on Switch's final software top 10 is third place. The ceiling is second place, because Mario Kart 8 Deluxe can't be caught anymore.

What world do we live in where NSMBU Deluxe, a port of a game with middling reputation, is gunning for 20m lifetime and an all-new REAL Mario game with actual effort put into it is expected to sell the same or maybe just a bit more. Admittedly, yeah, it's a world where Donald J. Trump will run for president again. So perhaps all this is just the normal madness we all have to get used to.

I dunno, I think NSMBWii was considered pretty great, I never got the feeling that anyway thought it was just decent. At that point the New series was fresh and exciting, while NSMBUD may be considered just decent and stale, that was not at all the case for the Wii game. The first "New" game on DS was regarded very highly, bringing back 2D Mario and all, and the Wii game was bringing the series to a console. There was a lot of hype for bringing "New" to console as the first 2D Mario on a console in three generations! It was also the first console multiplayer (at the same time) Mario game. When you consider the context, NSMBWii was a much bigger deal than Wonder.

Wonder doesn't quite have that aura of "omg 2D Mario is back!!". It's more, "finally not a 'New' game!"

So again, it's gonna come down to how good it is. Yes 2D Mario should have an potential audience even bigger than open world Zelda, though not much bigger cuz even little kids love open world Zelda no matter how "intimidating" you might say it is. And while Wonder is obviously gonna be hyped and people are gonna be excited for it, its not gonna be anywhere near the level of TotK hype. So I think the question comes down to, does Wonder blow people away and does it become THE game in the industry that everyone wants to play this holiday season? Honestly I strongly doubt that. And if it's not I don't see it reaching TotK levels. I mean yeah it's gonna blow past 20m for sure cuz it should destroy NSMBUD in sales, but taking on TotK is a different beast entirely.

But of course we'll also have to see how TotK's legs are. Is TotK still selling a lot and is it gonna chase after BotW? We only have the first 50 days of sales numbers for it so we don't yet know what its legs are gonna be. I could see both these games ending up 4th and 5th on Switch behind Smash & BotW and ahead of Odyssey. But I see Wonder more likely ending up in high 20 millions to potentially hitting 30 million and TotK ending up in low to mid 30 millions in best case sales scenario for both.

Anyway, time to watch that Wonder Direct and get a better idea what the game is gonna be like. I was left fairly unsure about Wonder after that initial teaser video.

UPDATE:

Just watched the Direct. Game looks pretty awesome. Chock full of new ideas. I'm excited for it. I'm gonna say I can see this thing hitting 30m, but I hope to see TotK try to match BotW sales and end up around 35m. Definitely can see both TotK and Wonder passing 30m, just think TotK will still be selling like 4 years from now while Wonder won't be. For most of next gen (assuming backwards compatibility) TotK is still gonna be the Zelda game to play, while from day 1 on next gen presumably the next 3D Mario is gonna be the Mario game to play instead of Wonder.

A 2018 version of this thread can be found here.
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/235151/bold-predition-achieved-zelda-has-outsold-mario-botw-vs-odyssey/

You know how much has changed when the bold prediction now is for Mario to outsell Zelda.

I expect TOTK will already be at 20m by the time Wonder releases, so I voted for option 2 (EDIT Sh!t, just saw "alligned"... Mario will win both). But SMBW looks incredible and seems to be the most accessible 2D entry of all time. Some of the power-ups look crazy over-powered, but I kind of like it. The game looks very imaginative and the characters (enemies included) are much more expressive than Mario's side-scrollers have ever been. I have a feeling those talking plants are gonna get old though. Fast.

Although it's going to be nearly impossible for anything to top TOTK for me any time soon (mostly due to the incredible build feature), I have no doubt that this new Mario entry will sell bazillions thanks to the multiplayer and Mario's popularity this year in particular. I wasn't all that impressed with the Switch special edition but it's the first Mario themed OLED if I'm not mistaken so it'll have a pretty big impact. I don't really expect it to do as well as the Zelda edition though. I'm still not sold in Wonder topping Zelda's (or Pokemon's) debut - it certainly could - but in any case, it'll likely end up as the 3rd best selling Switch game of all time.

Some people might want to look a little earlier than WiiU for a good example of what Wonder is capable of. A brand-new, exciting looking 2D Mario game on a hit system with record-selling software will have a profound effect compared to a tired looking Mario launch title on a busted console.

Super Mario Odyssey (all-new 3D Mario game) vs. New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe (2D Mario port) head to head in fiscal years ending March...

2020: 2.97m vs. 3.29m
2021: 3.42m vs. 3.84m
2022: 2.67m vs. 2.86m
2023: 2.26m vs. 2.11m

Your assumption is certainly not based on sales data. When new game vs. old game already favors 2D Mario, then new game vs. new game will favor 2D Mario even more.