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Slownenberg on 31 August 2023
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curl-6 said:
Slownenberg said:

I think that depends a lot on how good it is. If it had years to get leggy sales like NSMBUD did then sure it would have crazy sales cuz even the mediocre last gen stale NSMBUD has legged it out looking like it may hit 20m eventually. But next gen is probably gonna be starting a year after Wonder comes out and I'm not sure it's gonna have much legs beyond that year. It's gonna be a huge christmas title sure, could very well sell 20m in its holiday launch quarter, but this thread is comparing it to Nintendo's biggest and probably most desired game of all time, which sold 10m in 3 days. I don't really see 2D Mario blowing away the masses the way something like 3D Mario or open world Zelda does. It's gonna be super popular, but is it going to be open world Zelda popular??? I doubt it.

Now if tomorrow when they show it off it looks to be something truly special and ground breaking that might change the story. But just a new 2D Mario I don't think is gonna beat out Nintendo's most looked forward game of all time which was TotK.

Being high quality would help, but NSMBWii was generally considered just decent and sold over 30 million on a smaller install base than Switch, plus look what just happened with Pokemon Scarlet and Violet selling a ton despite having serious quality issues.

I wouldn't underestimate the draw of 2D Mario; it may not have the "wow" factor of TOTK, but it is much more accessible since it can be played and enjoyed by many people who would find games like Zelda just way too intimidating.

To echo Rol, back when NSMBWii came out people didn't think a 2D game in 2009 would outsell highly acclaimed 3D heavy hitters like Mario Galaxy or Twilight Princess, yet it did.

I dunno, I think NSMBWii was considered pretty great, I never got the feeling that anyway thought it was just decent. At that point the New series was fresh and exciting, while NSMBUD may be considered just decent and stale, that was not at all the case for the Wii game. The first "New" game on DS was regarded very highly, bringing back 2D Mario and all, and the Wii game was bringing the series to a console. There was a lot of hype for bringing "New" to console as the first 2D Mario on a console in three generations! It was also the first console multiplayer (at the same time) Mario game. When you consider the context, NSMBWii was a much bigger deal than Wonder.

Wonder doesn't quite have that aura of "omg 2D Mario is back!!". It's more, "finally not a 'New' game!"

So again, it's gonna come down to how good it is. Yes 2D Mario should have an potential audience even bigger than open world Zelda, though not much bigger cuz even little kids love open world Zelda no matter how "intimidating" you might say it is. And while Wonder is obviously gonna be hyped and people are gonna be excited for it, its not gonna be anywhere near the level of TotK hype. So I think the question comes down to, does Wonder blow people away and does it become THE game in the industry that everyone wants to play this holiday season? Honestly I strongly doubt that. And if it's not I don't see it reaching TotK levels. I mean yeah it's gonna blow past 20m for sure cuz it should destroy NSMBUD in sales, but taking on TotK is a different beast entirely.

But of course we'll also have to see how TotK's legs are. Is TotK still selling a lot and is it gonna chase after BotW? We only have the first 50 days of sales numbers for it so we don't yet know what its legs are gonna be. I could see both these games ending up 4th and 5th on Switch behind Smash & BotW and ahead of Odyssey. But I see Wonder more likely ending up in high 20 millions to potentially hitting 30 million and TotK ending up in low to mid 30 millions in best case sales scenario for both.

Anyway, time to watch that Wonder Direct and get a better idea what the game is gonna be like. I was left fairly unsure about Wonder after that initial teaser video.

UPDATE:

Just watched the Direct. Game looks pretty awesome. Chock full of new ideas. I'm excited for it. I'm gonna say I can see this thing hitting 30m, but I hope to see TotK try to match BotW sales and end up around 35m. Definitely can see both TotK and Wonder passing 30m, just think TotK will still be selling like 4 years from now while Wonder won't be. For most of next gen (assuming backwards compatibility) TotK is still gonna be the Zelda game to play, while from day 1 on next gen presumably the next 3D Mario is gonna be the Mario game to play instead of Wonder.

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 31 August 2023