| Soundwave said: If it's a 2024 product, then I think a Feb/March unveiling followed by launch in June-August. |
Why do you think it would launch June-August? It’s either November 2024 or delayed to Q1 2025 because of software.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Why do you think it would launch June-August? It’s either November 2024 or delayed to Q1 2025 because of software. |
Well for one, plenty of Nintendo hardware has launch in June-August.
The Famicom, Game Boy Advance (US), Super NES (US), Nintendo 64 (Japan) and then you have Switch, GameCube (Japan), 3DS also launch outside of November. I guess you can add Virtual Boy to that list too.
Not every Nintendo product has to launch in November, really I don't even think November is a great release date.
Launching in August/September is better, you get early adopters to have their own time period and then you get the holiday rush later on as a second boost.
Revealing Feb/March (so that the impact on current FY sales is minimal) and following the same unveil to release time frame from the Switch, puts you into July/August.
Obviously it will depend on what software is ready, hopefully Nintendo is not behind schedule on that. One would think they have learned their lesson on that.
Last edited by Soundwave - on 24 May 2023
Soundwave said:
Well for one, plenty of Nintendo hardware has launch in June-August. The Famicom, Game Boy Advance (US), Super NES (US), Nintendo 64 (Japan) and then you have Switch, GameCube (Japan), 3DS also launch outside of November. I guess you can add Virtual Boy to that list too. Not every Nintendo product has to launch in November, really I don't even think November is a great release date. Launching in August/September is better, you get early adopters to have their own time period and then you get the holiday rush later on as a second boost. Revealing Feb/March (so that the impact on current FY sales is minimal) and following the same unveil to release time frame from the Switch, puts you into July/August. Obviously it will depend on what software is ready, hopefully Nintendo is not behind schedule on that. One would think they have learned their lesson on that. |
Nintendo doing something over 20 years ago isn’t really a good reason for thinking they will do it now. Every generation of the last 20 years has either released during the holidays (DS, Wii, Wii U) or was planned for the holidays but delayed to Q1 of the following year (3DS, Switch).
I agree that a holiday launch isn’t important for consoles but that doesn’t mean console manufacturers feel the same way. There is literally zero reason to think they will launch a new console in the summer, wanting something to happen and thinking it will happen are two different things.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
zorg1000 said:
Nintendo doing something over 20 years ago isn’t really a good reason for thinking they will do it now. Every generation of the last 20 years has either released during the holidays (DS, Wii, Wii U) or was planned for the holidays but delayed to Q1 of the following year (3DS, Switch). I agree that a holiday launch isn’t important for consoles but that doesn’t mean console manufacturers feel the same way. There is literally zero reason to think they will launch a new console in the summer, wanting something to happen and thinking it will happen are two different things. |
Depends where their software pipeline is too ... previously they still had to support multiple consoles (when they launched the DS, for example they still had to make GameCube and even GBA games, when they launched Wii U, they were still neck deep in trying to establish the 3DS and it required a lot of dev resources too).
As such I think they basically were forced to launch hardware as late as possible in the year without just missing the entire year entirely (so November/December launches and as you mentioned, sometimes they missed even this and were forced to launch in Q1 to at least be able to make the fiscal year end).
But because this isn't the same case any longer, perhaps they can launch in a manner that suits more of how they would like to launch, rather than being forced to launch at the last possible moment.
Ultimately though I don't think say an August launch versus a November launch makes all the much difference in the grand scheme of things.
| Soundwave said: Since this has previously been a topic of discussion here in various threads, I thought I would bring this point up from the last Nintendo investor Q&A Question: Nintendo Switch was announced under the development codename “NX” in March 2015, Furukawa: Looking back at the release of information leading up to the Nintendo Switch launch, we We will provide information about hardware and software at the appropriate time for So basically what I said ... they only announced NX so early (2015) because they were making an announcement for smart phone games and wanted to reassure investors that they were not getting out of the console business. As such it was a special case to announce NX that early and (by logical extension) does not mean Nintendo has to announce the Switch 2 on the same time line. Likely if Switch 2 is a 2024 product, they can just announce it in 2024 and launch 4-5 months later if they want (that was the actual length of the real Switch marketing cycle last time). |
I don't think Nintendo had announced Switch, or NX, so early if Wii U hadn't underperformed and 3DS had not been so close to the end of it's lifecycle.
If Switch sales are falling, we can expect a relatively close release to it's successor.
Ei Kiinasti.
Eikä Japanisti.
Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.
Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.
Soundwave said:
Depends where their software pipeline is too ... previously they still had to support multiple consoles (when they launched the DS, for example they still had to make GameCube and even GBA games, when they launched Wii U, they were still neck deep in trying to establish the 3DS and it required a lot of dev resources too). As such I think they basically were forced to launch hardware as late as possible in the year without just missing the entire year entirely (so November/December launches and as you mentioned, sometimes they missed even this and were forced to launch in Q1 to at least be able to make the fiscal year end). But because this isn't the same case any longer, perhaps they can launch in a manner that suits more of how they would like to launch, rather than being forced to launch at the last possible moment. Ultimately though I don't think say an August launch versus a November launch makes all the much difference in the grand scheme of things. |
The launch for christmas is to create momentum and have quick return for the investment they made by manufacturing the first consoles and tooling the assembly line.
Then again, today the game development takes years, and slower start of sales does not lead into games drought, making the launch window less important than what it was 20 years ago.
Ei Kiinasti.
Eikä Japanisti.
Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.
Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.
| killeryoshis said: If you look back through the ages. Nintendo typically announces their new system at least a year before releasing it. |
I think Nintendo became pretty savvy with the hype-cycle. Also the Switch is selling great, so they don't want to hinder that by announcing a successor. I think the time between announcement and release will be short, half a year, three months.
Soundwave said:
Exactly, I've tried to explain this a couple of times here to some posters but it's always been met by "yada yada yada, they have to announce Switch 2 now because NX was announced two years before launch!" ... so it's nice to have Furukawa actually just confirm what should have been obvious (but apparently wasn't to some). |
I didn't just mention the NX, i mentioned every Nintendo console between announcement and release. Even after successful Nintendo consoles there was between 1-2 years between announcement and release. Two consoles that were announced after major successes the DS & 3DS still had a year in between announcement and release. The Wii U had a 1.5 year gap. It's still possible for Nintendo to announce the existence of new hardware and have it release in Holiday 2024 and still uphold to that one year gap, but it's unlikely Nintendo will only give a 6 month gap like you're suggesting because Nintendo needs to let investors know new hardware is on the way well ahead of time especially since investors are always concerned about a video game companies' future as sales begin to fall.
Also, Furukawa outright didn't confirm that the next system announcement will have a shorter gap, he just stated that those circumstances were a special case and not to automatically assume it'll be the same for the Switch 2 announcement, he didn't confirm a shorter announcement gap.
I could be wrong about this, but didn't you also predict an early 2024 release for the Switch 2?
javi741 said:
I didn't just mention the NX, i mentioned every Nintendo console between announcement and release. Even after successful Nintendo consoles there was between 1-2 years between announcement and release. Two consoles that were announced after major successes the DS & 3DS still had a year in between announcement and release. The Wii U had a 1.5 year gap. It's still possible for Nintendo to announce the existence of new hardware and have it release in Holiday 2024 and still uphold to that one year gap, but it's unlikely Nintendo will only give a 6 month gap like you're suggesting because Nintendo needs to let investors know new hardware is on the way well ahead of time especially since investors are always concerned about a video game companies' future as sales begin to fall. Also, Furukawa outright didn't confirm that the next system announcement will have a shorter gap, he just stated that those circumstances were a special case and not to automatically assume it'll be the same for the Switch 2 announcement, he didn't confirm a shorter announcement gap. I could be wrong about this, but didn't you also predict an early 2024 release for the Switch 2? |
Honestly Wii/DS are a long time ago now, that was before social media was even a big thing, even to an extent the 3DS also, today news just spreads much faster so I don't think those are really that applicable.
I think Switch 2 will launch in 2024, but it's impossible to know exactly where their software development pipe line is.
Maybe they want to launch in say June 2024, but it has to be dependant on whether or not say a game like Mario Kart Next is ready or not.
Switch is already proof you don't really need to launch early. NX was not a marketing announcement, it was only made to assure people that Nintendo was not leaving hardware, but there was no hardware detail given from Nintendo after that.
There's literally no "pro" to announcing a product unnecessarily early. All it does is cut sales of your existing hardware.
But all the actual marketing for the Switch from reveal to launch was in a 4 month window only ... and the launch was very successful. So all that shows is frankly why announce anything earlier than that? What is the upside? There is none.
Last edited by Soundwave - on 28 May 2023
zorg1000 said:
Why do you think it would launch June-August? It’s either November 2024 or delayed to Q1 2025 because of software. |
Personally I'd say best options are:
June (when kids are getting out of school)
September (allowing them to have a launch period and then a separate holiday period)
November (the typical holiday launch time)
Of those I think typical holiday launch time of November is actually the worst. Next year I'll be looking for either a reveal around February and release around June, or a reveal around May and launch around September.
And considering it's been many years since the last 3D Mario and Mario Kart, and those are the two obvious launch titles, ya gotta figure they will have those two titles ready no matter when they launch next year so I don't think concerns about software being ready would change their launch date within 2024.
If they launch June-ish have 3D Mario on launch day, Mario Kart maybe a month later (or maybe launch day also), have another big game for later summer or early fall, and one more big game for the holidays.
If they launch September-ish have 3D Mario on launch day, Mario Kart maybe a month later, and another big game another month later as the holiday game, or maybe Mario Kart is the holiday game.
If they launch during the holidays, then just have 3D Mario and Mario Kart at launch.
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