It goes both ways, BotW had 6 years to accumulate those 30 million sales but was a launch title so it had to grow with the system. On the other hand, TotK will probably only have ~1.5 years to sell on Switch before the successor comes out but it has a massive install base to sell to right away.

Plus, like you mentioned, there will most likely be some sort of updated port released on Switch 2.

The Switch has heavily fallen off in Other for whatever reason.

Super Mario Party will likely pass 20m by the end of the year after all (350,000 for this quarter). Still hoping Zelda reaches 20m first though.

I have a feeling TOTK sales are going to be gargantuan. Like, BOTW/Mario Odyssey/Smash Ultimate tier.

BOTW is THE iconic Switch game, and the hype for the follow up after 6 years, the huge install base Switch has by this point, and its overwhelmingly positive reception present ideal circumstances for a sales explosion.

I know it's anecdotal but in my smallish town (around 100k people) the line for the early ToTK release had about 200 people in it.

Mario Games on Switch

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 53.79m
Super Mario Odyssey: 25.76m
Super Mario Party: 19.14m
New Super Mario Bros. U: 15.41m
Super Mario 3D World + BF: 11.38m
Mario Party Superstars: 10.17m
Super Mario 3D All-Stars: 9.07m
Super Mario Maker 2: 7.89m
Mario Tennis Aces: 4.28m
Paper Mario Origami King: 3.34m
Mario Strikers Battle League: 2.54m
Mario Golf Super Rush: 2.35m
Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle: 2.00m
Mario Kart Live Home Circuit: 1.58m

Total: 168.20m

Pokemon Games on Switch

Pokémon Sword/Shield: 25.82m
Pokémon Scarlet/Violet: 22.10m
Pokémon Let's Go: 15.07m
Pokémon BD/SP: 14.92m
Pokémon Legends Arceus: 14.83m
New Pokémon Snap!: 2.74m
Pokémon Mystery Dungeon: 1.89m
Pokkén Tournament DX: 1.54m

Total: 98.91 million

Before we start getting in to much data from NPD and the others I want to make a (bold?) prediction for next quarter because I think the Mario movie + TotK wombo combo is going a bit underrated. I feel fairly confident it's gonna be their biggest non-holiday hardware quarter since 2021 (so more than 4.11 mil) and their biggest non-holiday software quarter ever (so 56 mil+). Could very well hit 60 mil+ software.

In other words I think they'll be sitting right on the edge of 130 mil Hardware and 1.1 billion software by the next quarterly report.

MK8D was bundled during the last 3 holidays.

I think he meant permanent bundle.