Will Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom make history for the Switch this year by becoming the eighth 20m selling title on the system?

Currently, the Wii and the Switch are tied for the most 20m selling games on a single platform, each with seven titles; the Switch’s being MK8DX, ACNH, SSBU, ZBOTW, S/S, Odyssey and S/V.

There’s a good chance that Super Mario Party (18.79m) legs it out to 20m eventually, but it won’t happen this year. So the question is, will Zelda: TOTK sell 20m by the end of 2023? Later? Never?

Tears of the Kingdom, like Breath of the Wild, will have the benefit of a pretty empty competitive field, at least on Nintendo’s side of things. The console is definitely winding down and I’m sure many titles are being held over for the Switch 2’s launch year.

Unlike Breath of the Wild, the point of entry is much cheaper, even at $70. People don’t have to buy a Switch to get this title. With over 120 million units in people’s hands, just 17% of Switch owners need to take the plunge.

I also think Nintendo’s marketing strategy is really paying off and people are primed for this title. We’ve been waiting for 4 years. Let’s go!

Easily. Hype is through the roof

Oh yeah, w/o a doubt.

Tbh I think TOTK has the possibility to have the fastest selling launch ever for any Nintendo game, beating Pokemon S&V which did it not to long ago. The hype for TOTK is huge and now with a huge Switch install base and the tons of new Zelda fans created from BOTW ready to pick it up at launch, its bound to potentially break launch sales records.

I went with no.
I expect it to sell very well but I've a feeling Nintendo could release a switch successor next year with TOTK as a launch title. That would kill any legs TOTK would have.
If Nintendo don't release a switch successor next year then it probably will do over 20m.

100%yes

It will sell less than BOTW lifetime but it's first year sales will obviously be massive and far higher.

It's definitely reaching 20m, don't know if it will this year or not, will be close.

With Link's special ability, it went way above it yes

I’m unsure.

On one hand, Breath of the Wild had one of the biggest hype campaigns in history, and strongly made a case that it had an amazing experience, and delivered. Tears of the Kingdom totally lacks this.

On the other hand, it’s the sequel to Breath of the Wild. San Andreas kind of released without the massive hype campaigns of GTA3 or Vice City, but it totally crushed it! I think Tears of the Kingdom could be that.

Another factor is that Tears of the Kingdom might actually be a better game than Breath of the Wild. It takes one of the most loved and YouTube virally popular elements from BotW, the sandbox features were, and developed a crafting system to make it official. This could take the game to levels even beyond Breath of the Wild. The game will almost certainly burn up a lot faster in sales than Breath of the Wild given that the Switch has a much larger userbase, but sales will burn out after 30-45 million in 1 or 2 years rather than fade away after 6 or 7 years…

That’s my gut take.