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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Zelda: TOTK Make History For The Switch This Year?

 

Will Zelda: TOTK be the Switch’s next 20m seller?

Yes, and before November 9 18.37%
 
Yes, during Nov-Dec 15 30.61%
 
20m, but not this year 21 42.86%
 
No, Zelda: TOTK won’t reach 20m 4 8.16%
 
Total:49

I think it will in November or December. I predict a 9 million opening.



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Yes.

>12M global launch 3-days [2-2.5M JP / 9.5-10M ROTW]

19-20M launch quarter, maybe more.



mk7sx said:

Yes.

>12M global launch 3-days [2-2.5M JP / 9.5-10M ROTW]

19-20M launch quarter, maybe more.

I think this is a bit much. Pokemon S/V Nintendo's fastest selling game ever sold 10m in 3 days and 20.6m in it's launch quarter.

Maybe if Zelda was launching at the end of November like Pokemon S/V it could have a shot but launching in May I don't think these numbers are realistic.

Also BOTW sales are at about 3.41m in Japan on Switch after 6 years of sales. 2.5m in Japan would be 73% of BOTW's lifetime sales in 3 days...



For some perspective, Animal Crossing sold 22.4m in just over 3 months, also not during the holidays, but during pandemic year.

I think it will happen in Nov-Dec. Very curious to see how big launch week is.



It'll be more front-loaded than Breath of the Wild with a higher start but shorter legs, and lifetime sales will be lower as well. 20M could be reached, but I'm doubtful of it happening this year already.



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Zippy6 said:
mk7sx said:

Yes.

>12M global launch 3-days [2-2.5M JP / 9.5-10M ROTW]

19-20M launch quarter, maybe more.

I think this is a bit much. Pokemon S/V Nintendo's fastest selling game ever sold 10m in 3 days and 20.6m in it's launch quarter.

Maybe if Zelda was launching at the end of November like Pokemon S/V it could have a shot but launching in May I don't think these numbers are realistic.

Also BOTW sales are at about 3.41m in Japan on Switch after 6 years of sales. 2.5m in Japan would be 73% of BOTW's lifetime sales in 3 days...

Yup I expect this to be a complete monster, (on IB I posited this being the biggest opener since GTAV).  I think within broad gaming public BOTW is best WOM game of the last 10 years and we'll see that goodwill play out for launch of successor.  (I suppose the game could be underwhelming and fall off after launch week, in which case my 19-20M prediction would be off.)

BOTW in JP is at 3.41M NSW, and ~200K on Wii U as of 12/31 and still selling 100-150K in non-holiday quarters.  So at TOTK launch total should be about ~3.7M. 

2.5M should be about 67% of that total, which is in the ballpark of SV launch sales (4.05M) as % of SwSh LTD sales at that time, and also Splatoon 3 launch sales (3.45M) as % of Splatoon 2's LTD sales at the time.  Japan is just super frontloaded.

Outside of Japan it should have an easy time topping SV's launch sales.  I expect US to pull like 4.5-5M alone for Fri-Sun period.  



It will sell very well. I personally won't be buying it the first week in protest of the $70 price point. I wish everyone would boycott it the first week and buy it week 2 just to make them sweat a minute. I'll more than likely, change my mind two days after it comes out and buy it, but I'm not buying it day one. It will have no effect, but in principle I don't support charging $70 simply because they know they can on this one title. If you are going to charge $70 I want to see expensive ray tracing features and hdr which they can't give us on the Switch.



Jumpin said:

I’m unsure.

On one hand, Breath of the Wild had one of the biggest hype campaigns in history, and strongly made a case that it had an amazing experience, and delivered. Tears of the Kingdom totally lacks this.

On the other hand, it’s the sequel to Breath of the Wild. San Andreas kind of released without the massive hype campaigns of GTA3 or Vice City, but it totally crushed it! I think Tears of the Kingdom could be that.

Another factor is that Tears of the Kingdom might actually be a better game than Breath of the Wild. It takes one of the most loved and YouTube virally popular elements from BotW, the sandbox features were, and developed a crafting system to make it official. This could take the game to levels even beyond Breath of the Wild. The game will almost certainly burn up a lot faster in sales than Breath of the Wild given that the Switch has a much larger userbase, but sales will burn out after 30-45 million in 1 or 2 years rather than fade away after 6 or 7 years…

That’s my gut take.

I honestly can't tell if this is a joke post.  The hype levels for TotK are insane.  Certainly it doesn't have the benefit of being paired with a launch of a new console, but in a lot of ways that is a feather in TotK's cap, not the other way around.  Also, you list a 30-45 million window in two years, which is insane considering that Breath of the Wild has barely hit 30 million 6 years later.  If this is a joke post, it's very funny.  If it's not, then I'm not sure of how unsure you are that this game will burn quick, bright and likely bury 20 million units by year's end.



rapsuperstar31 said:

It will sell very well. I personally won't be buying it the first week in protest of the $70 price point. I wish everyone would boycott it the first week and buy it week 2 just to make them sweat a minute. I'll more than likely, change my mind two days after it comes out and buy it, but I'm not buying it day one. It will have no effect, but in principle I don't support charging $70 simply because they know they can on this one title. If you are going to charge $70 I want to see expensive ray tracing features and hdr which they can't give us on the Switch.

Dude you don't even need to pay $70. You can pay $50. I preordered it for $50. If you've got NSO you can get two game vouchers for $100. I did that and used the first one on TotK so I got it for $50.

Even if you don't have NSO (you should, it's awesome) you spend $20 on the basic NSO subscription and get the two game vouchers for $100, save $20 on TotK so that pays for the year of NSO right there, and you still get $10 off another $60 game. So if you really want to protest the $70 price point you don't wait a few days to buy TotK, that's not a protest, instead you buy it day 1 for $10 cheaper than a normal game rather than $10 more than a normal game.

Anyway, yes I think TotK will blow by 20 million. The launch is going to be absolutely monster. I could see a 10 million launch weekend (honestly it could be even higher), 15+ million by end of the quarter (end of june), and 20 million before the holiday season starts. Maybe 22-23 million by end of the year. Possibility it is even more front loaded though, like 12m launch weekend, 18 million first quarter, 20 million after summer quarter, 22-23 million by end of year.

Unlike BotW that grows steadily as the Switch user base expands, TotK is entering into a 125 million userbase and there are a ton of people who have been waiting years for this game. It is the most hyped game of any game that has ever come out on Switch. Most people who played BotW are gonna get this game, and most of those people are gonna get it day 1 or at least soon after it comes out. So first week and first quarter sales should be monster and legs should be fairly small.



super_etecoon said:
Jumpin said:

I’m unsure.

On one hand, Breath of the Wild had one of the biggest hype campaigns in history, and strongly made a case that it had an amazing experience, and delivered. Tears of the Kingdom totally lacks this.

On the other hand, it’s the sequel to Breath of the Wild. San Andreas kind of released without the massive hype campaigns of GTA3 or Vice City, but it totally crushed it! I think Tears of the Kingdom could be that.

Another factor is that Tears of the Kingdom might actually be a better game than Breath of the Wild. It takes one of the most loved and YouTube virally popular elements from BotW, the sandbox features were, and developed a crafting system to make it official. This could take the game to levels even beyond Breath of the Wild. The game will almost certainly burn up a lot faster in sales than Breath of the Wild given that the Switch has a much larger userbase, but sales will burn out after 30-45 million in 1 or 2 years rather than fade away after 6 or 7 years…

That’s my gut take.

I honestly can't tell if this is a joke post.  The hype levels for TotK are insane.  Certainly it doesn't have the benefit of being paired with a launch of a new console, but in a lot of ways that is a feather in TotK's cap, not the other way around.  Also, you list a 30-45 million window in two years, which is insane considering that Breath of the Wild has barely hit 30 million 6 years later.  If this is a joke post, it's very funny.  If it's not, then I'm not sure of how unsure you are that this game will burn quick, bright and likely bury 20 million units by year's end.

And I can’t tell if you’re trolling or if you just struggle with reading comprehension. If the latter, I‘d ask that you read more carefully this time.

First, I’m referring to Nintendo’s hype campaign, not the amount of hype you feel the game has.

Second, Breath of the Wild took longer to sell is because not everyone who purchased it had a Switch in 2017 and 2018. In the first two years, around 34 million Switches sold. As of 2023, over 120 million have sold. Unlike Breath of the Wild, which had staggered sales due to limited console availability in earlier years, Tears of the Kingdom could sell much more quickly because of a substantially larger customer base up front. If Tears of the Kingdom proves to be a better received and more popular game than Breath of the Wild, it stands to reason that it will sell more units, much like how San Andreas sold nearly as many units as GTA3 and Vice City combined on PS2.

I hope this clarification makes things easier to understand for you.



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