Zippy6 said:
I think this is a bit much. Pokemon S/V Nintendo's fastest selling game ever sold 10m in 3 days and 20.6m in it's launch quarter. Maybe if Zelda was launching at the end of November like Pokemon S/V it could have a shot but launching in May I don't think these numbers are realistic. Also BOTW sales are at about 3.41m in Japan on Switch after 6 years of sales. 2.5m in Japan would be 73% of BOTW's lifetime sales in 3 days... |
Yup I expect this to be a complete monster, (on IB I posited this being the biggest opener since GTAV). I think within broad gaming public BOTW is best WOM game of the last 10 years and we'll see that goodwill play out for launch of successor. (I suppose the game could be underwhelming and fall off after launch week, in which case my 19-20M prediction would be off.)
BOTW in JP is at 3.41M NSW, and ~200K on Wii U as of 12/31 and still selling 100-150K in non-holiday quarters. So at TOTK launch total should be about ~3.7M.
2.5M should be about 67% of that total, which is in the ballpark of SV launch sales (4.05M) as % of SwSh LTD sales at that time, and also Splatoon 3 launch sales (3.45M) as % of Splatoon 2's LTD sales at the time. Japan is just super frontloaded.
Outside of Japan it should have an easy time topping SV's launch sales. I expect US to pull like 4.5-5M alone for Fri-Sun period.
