Obama would probably be considered center-right or so in Europe. It's funny how different the view about the political position is between USA and many other countries.

With the midterms coming soon, what do you guys expect will be the amount of seats each party gonna have in both House and Senate?

I'm thinking 51 seats for the Democrats in the Senate (so 49 for the GOP) and ~270 in the House, with GOP losing a further ~5-10 seats to independents/third party candidates.

51-49 sounds reasonable. Except that one of those seats would be Fetterman, so really 50/50. With Vance as tiebreaker.

Senat sets are a money thing, pure and simple. With Elon Musk's war chest on the Reps side, I don't think there will be much of a change. Maybe nothing changes at all net, maybe the Dems will win 1 seat.

A few months ago I built a forecast model for this coming election, and it has been shifting quite a bit over the last month. Two months ago Democrats/Republicans were like 50/50 for the Senate. House race is pretty much where it was then, but more certainty than before, and the tail situations where Dems get >250 seats have become much more likely (up from like 10% to 20% of simulations.) 

Projected shifts from 2022 midterms

Projected Shifts from 2024 Presidential Election

^ Let's hope...

Yeah. NC seems to be in the bag, and there's hope in places like Ohio, Alaska, and Iowa. I'm kind of worried about Michigan and Minnesota, where the Republicans are running another vacuous TV talking head and trying to tie Peggy Flanagan to the Medicaid scandal, and Susan Collins keeps clinging to office with her bony talons dug in.

How many seats do you think the Dems will have in the House after the midterms? 250, 280? Over 300?

Personally I expect just under 280 seats. Would be much more without Gerrymandering, though...

Most simulations, including mine, are predicting about upper-230's on average. 

Unfortunately, 280+ doesn't seem possible in our current polarized climate (<1.5% of simulations.) There were historical periods where one of the parties was a multi-decade dominant party (GOP after Civil War, Democrats after Great Depression) where majorities like this were possible, but the American political parties have become so well-oiled that they have become very competitive. 

Gerrymandering is one of the reasons for this. 

I also ran a simulation a few weeks ago about what would happen if Democrats agreed to have center-right independents run (with no competition from them) in non-competitive red districts and the result was that the average HoR ideology shifted slightly more center-right, but the GOP became a minority party and risked its primary competitor party status if those Independents chose to unify into a competitive party over a few cycles. A coalition between a moderate Center-Right party and Democrats (the equivalent to a European grand coalition) is the only way I can see super-majorities happen again. 

Who the fuck is stupid enough to vote for the republicans at this point?
That’s what I’m wondering, they have no excuses anymore. They are exactly what we claimed they were, if not worse.