| Bofferbrauer2 said: How many seats do you think the Dems will have in the House after the midterms? 250, 280? Over 300? |
Most simulations, including mine, are predicting about upper-230's on average.
Unfortunately, 280+ doesn't seem possible in our current polarized climate (<1.5% of simulations.) There were historical periods where one of the parties was a multi-decade dominant party (GOP after Civil War, Democrats after Great Depression) where majorities like this were possible, but the American political parties have become so well-oiled that they have become very competitive.
Gerrymandering is one of the reasons for this.
I also ran a simulation a few weeks ago about what would happen if Democrats agreed to have center-right independents run (with no competition from them) in non-competitive red districts and the result was that the average HoR ideology shifted slightly more center-right, but the GOP became a minority party and risked its primary competitor party status if those Independents chose to unify into a competitive party over a few cycles. A coalition between a moderate Center-Right party and Democrats (the equivalent to a European grand coalition) is the only way I can see super-majorities happen again.
Last edited by sc94597 - on 24 September 2026
