sc94597 on 23 September 2026
A few months ago I built a forecast model for this coming election, and it has been shifting quite a bit over the last month. Two months ago Democrats/Republicans were like 50/50 for the Senate. House race is pretty much where it was then, but more certainty than before, and the tail situations where Dems get >250 seats have become much more likely (up from like 10% to 20% of simulations.)
Projected shifts from 2022 midterms
Projected Shifts from 2024 Presidential Election
