According to the constitution he should be blocked from running again.  The laws are just not being enforced.  But if we follow the law he is not able to run again. 

I don't really think the race is as much of a toss up as some of the polls imply.  People forget that Biden won by like 8 million votes.  Only 13 states in the US have populations a larger than that.

The Supreme Court will rule on that
https://apnews.com/article/supreme-court-trump-insurrection-2024-election-0baac5ba0c1868e437e365af17eeab24

Arguments will be held on Feb. 8, during what is normally a nearly monthlong winter break for the justices. The compressed timeframe could allow the court to produce a decision before Super Tuesday on March 5, when the largest number of delegates are up for grabs in a single day, including in Colorado.


Biden's pitch so far seems to be we can't have Trump back

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/president-joe-biden-stress-democracy-sacred-cause-speech-106126268

Joe Biden says 2024 U.S. election 'all about' whether America's democracy will survive.
Says U.S. came close to having 'lost it all' during attack on Capitol 3 years ago

Dunno if that kind of exaggeration will help him, especially while it's up to the Supreme Court first. Weird to start with this angle. Yet Trump is the same.

Former U.S. president Donald Trump argues that Biden and top Democrats are themselves seeking to undermine democracy by using the legal system to thwart the campaign of the current president's chief rival.



Anyway the total votes don't matter, Biden could easily lose the states where votes were close
https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2023/12/14/biden-trails-trump-in-7-battleground-states-shedding-support-among-key-demographics/?sh=2f12222061aa

President Joe Biden would lose each of the seven battleground states likely to decide the 2024 presidential election to former President Donald Trump if the contest were held today, according to a new poll that shows Biden is struggling to reach key demographics, including Black voters and young people.

Not that those demographics would automatically switch to Trump, yet not voting is still half as damaging as switching votes in a 2 party system.

If the Supreme Court rules appropriately and disqualifies him, what do you think will happen to whatever votes he has up to this point.  Will they all me assigned to second place finishers or would they be divided among all participants proportionately to what they won per race?  Imagine in the worst case scenario that the SC drags its ass only to throw him out in June after all of the primaries are done.  That would be a disaster because you would probably have people drooping out of the race early. They should be hearing the case now.

Yes it's way too close, "could allow to reach a decision before March 5th" doesn't sound very promising.

I'm far from knowledgeable about US primaries, this only makes it more confusing
https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/2024-state-primary-election-dates

Run off dates are far later during the year, so my uneducated guess would be there will be 'do-overs'.
I guess it would be similar to what happens when a candidate dies or withdraws during an election year (not that I know what happens then)

How is that so, the constitution does not block even a convicted criminal from running and becoming president.  There have been a number of lawyers opinions on if Trump is convicted both in a federal and the state GA criminal case and on both fronts they say he can still be president.  Now on the federal level he can pardon himself but on the state level he cannot and the interesting thing about the GA case is that not even the governor can pardon Trump if he is convicted.  The GA governor does not have the ability to pardon instead its a group appointed by the governor so who knows how that would pan out.  He could actually be in jail, does not get pardon and has to work from that cell which would be the absolute crazies thing to probably ever happen in US politics.

14th amendment

"Section 3 disqualification appears to apply to any covered person who has taken an oath to uphold the Constitution of the United States and thereafter either (1) engages in insurrection or rebellion against the United States or (2) gives aid or comfort to the enemies of the United States, unless a supermajority of Congress “removes such disability.”"

"Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment does not expressly require a criminal conviction, and historically, one was not necessary. Reconstruction Era federal prosecutors brought civil actions in court to oust officials linked to the Confederacy, and Congress in some cases took action to refuse to seat Members. Congress last used Section 3 of the Fourteenth Amendment in 1919 to refuse to seat a socialist Congressman accused of having given aid and comfort to Germany during the First World War, irrespective of the Amnesty Act."

I think Trump still runs but Biden beats him by a close margin as perceptions of the economy improve and young/minority voters realize he's really on the ballot again instead of some hypothetical poll question.

Whatever happens, though, you can bet on near-2020 levels of fuckery. Imagine for instance Biden wins by just Nebraska's 2nd congressional district. Or, the true nightmare, he dies before becoming president-elect but after the electoral college votes, and the Republican Congress wants to just elect Trump instead.

I have to say China will be happy with who ever wins. If it is Trump it will be "isolation borders blah blah blah". Then more countries will turn to China. Then if it is Biden well he is "We have to work together"

How can there be when the DNC isn't having a fair democratic process? 

Every few months you get a story like this

In his statement, Phillips called the handling of the process by the Florida Democrats a “blatant act of electoral corruption” and demanded Biden “condemn and immediately address” it.

The Biden campaign did not provide a comment for this story.

Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party, contended the party followed its “standard process” that was outlined on its website.

“We are dismayed by Dean Phillps’ conspiratorial and inappropriate comments comparing the state of Florida to the Iranian regime as part of his knee-jerk reaction to long-established procedures,” Fried said. “This is unbecoming of someone running for higher office.”

In 2016, Sanders’ team claimed the primary process was rigged against him. Many Democrats felt those accusations soured some young and liberal voters on Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, in the general election. Sanders’ aides and allies have long argued that he did everything he could to campaign for Clinton after the primary ended.

Earlier this month, Phillips apologized to Sanders on X, formerly known as Twitter, writing: “I had long dismissed his complaints about the rigged Democratic Party primary system. But you know what? He was right.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/30/florida-democrats-dean-phillips-election-00129403

And few days ago there is this:  

I am glad Bernie is vindicated, 8 years later, this is going to be a joke and an election. I still hope Biden wins, if he lives long enough to make it. Which raises the question, what happens if Biden dies just before the elections? If Trump dies, great, no problems there. But in a scenario in which Biden dies this year, what does the DNC think will happen when they are the ones who decided there is no room for anybody else? I am not being mean, both candidates look like they can go any minute, Biden more so than Trump, where are you contingency plans? 

Well Biden hasn't really been working together with China with AI chip and other tech restrictions, not to mention his still support for Taiwan.