This quarter Switch software passed Wii (921.85 million), DS (948.76 million) and PS1 (962 million). Next up is PS3 with 999.4 million and then PS2 with 1.537 billion. Number one is PS4 with a bit more than PS2 but we don't know how much more because at the end of 2020 Sony started lumping PS4 and PS5 software together. Personally i think Switch will end up around 1.4 billion by the end of it's life. https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data.html

I'm no Mathematics buff, but that seems a bit unlikely to me. It would have to sell about 40% of all the lifetime software in whatever the number of solid years it has ahead of it. Let's say 2 years. That would be a ton, wouldn't it? Unless the install base keeps purchasing games to play in the system for years after a successor console arrives.

Software sales typically decline a lot later than hardware sales because even as hardware sales decline, the hardware total still keeps getting bigger which means there's a much bigger install base in the 2nd half then the 1st half of the consoles life to purchase games. Despite 2022 selling way less Hardware sales-wise compared to 2020 with a 35% decrease in consoles sold, software sales were still pretty much the same level. We could assume that the Switch has around 20% more in its  sales lifecycle assuming it reaches around the 150M, so software assuming that it declines less it could certainly sell another 40% before the lifecycle is over.

If they wanted a bigger sales driver late in the product they probably should have just released a Switch Pro in 2021, the same thing as a PS4 Pro, which would be Switch games just running at higher resolutions.

That would've given a bigger boost at this point than an OLED model, but my guess is Nvidia was not willing to give them a new chip design in a "hey we'll just throw some extra CUDA cores and a new ARM CPU onto a SoC for you!" type of thing without it being basically as expensive as a full blown new successor chip. Nintendo could do that with the DS and 3DS (DSi and New 3DS) models because the ARM cores were easy to swap out/add-on to but Nvidia doesn't work that way. You don't see like a custom Tegra X1 processor for anyone (not just Nintendo) that has more CUDA cores and an updated CPU or something like that. 

So it kinda is what it is. You're gonna see late generation decline because it's normal. That Pokemon game for example I believe is the fastest selling Nintendo game ever in 1 quarter (like ever), but you can see it still didn't prevent them from missing their hardware target for the holiday season. That's because at this point you're basically just selling Pokemon games to people who already have a Switch, you've basically saturated the number of new people that would buy in for a new Pokemon with so many previous Pokemon games. And that too is entirely normal at this stage of the product cycle. 

Scarlet/Violet sales are absolutely insane, even by Pokemon standards.
It's the fastest selling game on any Nintendo system ever, and is already the 4th highest selling series entry after less than a month and a half.
Truly monstrous performance.

Strong sales for Kirby, Switch Sports, and Splatoon 3, and surprisingly decent for Bayo 3 considering its niche status.
Xenoblade 3 deserves better, but for what it is, not bad.

Definitely lower hardware and total software than I expected, but still decent numbers. I do hope that a revision is in the cards for 2023 though (otherwise a successor should launch in 2024). A 4k revision releasing with TOTK would be big.

A price drop coinciding with a TOTK OLED edition might also do good numbers, at least briefly. Really curious to see Nintendo's forecast for the next FY.

SV numbers were basically what I expected. Nice to see Kirby & Switch Sports still pulling in great numbers and MK8 DX hit a nice even 52 million. Maybe 60 million by the end of 2023, though that remains to be seen. Nice to see Bayo 3 hit a million. I think we will see Mario Odyssey surpass SWSH. Not sure if SV can reach RGB numbers or even surpass SWSH, considering how Pokemon games can fall off a cliff (SM and now BDSP). Of course, SV is in a different situation from those two.

Not too surprised BDSP fell off a cliff, but I was expecting a bit more out of it. Still really wish they launched Arceus in holiday 2022 and SV in holiday 2023. Can't imagine they would've had anything bigger than SV for this coming holiday anyways. Maybe they are trying to wrap up SV before the next system launches.

It's looking increasingly likely that if the Switch is going to have a chance at passing the DS and PS2 to become the best selling system of all-time, it's going to need some type of enhanced hardware revision along the lines of a Switch Pro to give its sales a shot in the arm and boost its legs. But this late into the Switch's life cycle and with its successor due at some point within the next 2 years, I'm not sure if Nintendo wants to do that. If they did, I think that would be a mistake.

Since there's a possibility that following the launch an enhanced hardware revision immediately with the launch of Switch 2 just one year later might bite them in the rear and make customers unhappy about the premature investment. Sony and Microsoft waited 3-4 years between the launches of the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X before they launched the PS5 and Xbox Series.

Plus, if they wait TOO long to launch Switch 2, they run the risk of messing with software development schedules as well as dating its hardware even moreso than the Switch was already dated in 2017 in terms of specs and performance.

At this point, I think the smarter move on their part would be to just ride the Switch out. Get as much as they can get out of its remaining life cycle as they can while shifting gears towards the launch of their next system and putting all hands on deck for that.

As such, the Switch will most likely finish somewhere in the 140-150 million range. Maybe it can leg it out to just past 150 million. But not much else after that. Ultimately falling just short of the DS and PS2. But still an absolute freaking juggernaut.

145 by March 2024
160 by March 2025
170 life time

@PAOerfulone To be fair, releasing the GBC only a couple of years before GBA didn't stop the GBA from being a big success (that system had its legs cut short due to the PSP releasing, otherwise it probably would've been back to back 100 million sellers). A Switch Pro when TOTK releases and then Switch 2 near the end of 2025 wouldn't be too bad, imo. Also helps that Nintendo has been releasing Switch revisions every 2 years or so thus far.

But still, I agree that I can see Nintendo riding out the Switch with a successor launching late 2024 even though I'd prefer Pro in 2023 and a successor in 2025.

GBC launched in 1998 and the GBA in 2001, so almost three years apart, but beyond that there are a lot of differences. The Game Boy was 12 years old by the time 2001 rolled around and badly in need of a real upgrade. The Game Boy Color also cost $99. 

Switch would be problematic if they did something like release a $350-$399 Switch Pro at this point and then tried to sell people on a $399 Switch 2 like two years later and also having an OLED Switch two years prior to the Pro for $350 also. 

It would be way too much hardware, it's getting more like Sega territory with Sega CD + 32X + Saturn all being considerably pricey at that. 

Honestly the DSi XL probably hurt the 3DS early on too ... 2010 was too late in the game to be releasing a $200 model DS and then ask a lot of people to buy a $250 3DS 12 months later. Certainly it wasn't the only issue, but I don't think it helped that they released a new model DS that was relatively pricey just a year before the 3DS. 

You gotta be careful about oversaturating the market with too much hardware especially if the hardware price is expensive.