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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Nintendo quarterly sales update (To December 31st 2022) Switch 122.55 million

SKMBlake said:
Soundwave said:

If they wanted a bigger sales driver late in the product they probably should have just released a Switch Pro in 2021, the same thing as a PS4 Pro, which would be Switch games just running at higher resolutions.

13.5 million OLED isn't a bad sales booster. 

Another booster would be a Switch Lite OLED

It's not bad, but if you wanted a second half cycle sales booster, probably not the ideal hardware if that is your only focus. OLED screen is great, that screen makes every other Nintendo handheld screen look like total dog shit, but it's kind of limited in how much appeal it can have because it's just (well) a screen. 

My guess is they wanted to do a New 3DS/DSi XL style revision with some upgrades under the hood but Nvidia doesn't offer a off-the-shelf chip that would allow that (you can look at other vendors beside Nintendo that use the Tegra X1 or X2 and see you basically only get what Nvidia gives you, there's not much customization allowed). The New 3DS/DSi XL just used existing parts that weren't made expressly for Nintendo by adding some newer ARM cores and RAM, but the Tegra SoC doesn't allow for that I don't think (you don't see a Tegra X1 or X2 with different CPUs for anyone for example). 

So they just chose to focus on a screen upgrade instead. Hey I wouldn't mind a Switch 4K or something either, but I don't think it's in the cards at this point. It should be launching with Zelda: TOTK or at minimum we should be getting some kind of leaks from devs or manufacturers if something was coming this year (the OLED screen model did leak but they just misunderstood that it wouldn't come with a hardware bump, Switch Lite and Mariko and PS4 Pro and XBox Series X for that matter all leaked well in advance). 

At this point you're better off just leaving things on the table for the proper Switch next-gen successor, the OLED screen itself already feels like a generational upgrade that you'd expect on the next system, why make your job that much harder with the next system. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 08 February 2023

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Soundwave said:
SKMBlake said:

13.5 million OLED isn't a bad sales booster. 

Another booster would be a Switch Lite OLED

It's not bad, but if you wanted a second half cycle sales booster, probably not the ideal hardware if that is your only focus. OLED screen is great, that screen makes every other Nintendo handheld screen look like total dog shit, but it's kind of limited in how much appeal it can have because it's just (well) a screen. 

It's not just the screen, it's a bigger screen, double internal storage, ethernet port, way better stand, better battery life and better speakers, and with a redesigned better dock.

And we saw in the past that revisions with more power don't necessarily appeal to a wider audience, the DSi didn't had a big impact (it's similar to the boost from the OLED model actually - 17 million after 15 months for the DSi vs 13.6 million for the OLED which had shortages), it sold 41 million after 5 years combined with the DSi XL. And I won't even mention the New 3DS.



SKMBlake said:
Soundwave said:

It's not bad, but if you wanted a second half cycle sales booster, probably not the ideal hardware if that is your only focus. OLED screen is great, that screen makes every other Nintendo handheld screen look like total dog shit, but it's kind of limited in how much appeal it can have because it's just (well) a screen. 

It's not just the screen, it's a bigger screen, double internal storage, ethernet port, way better stand, better battery life and better speakers, and with a redesigned better dock.

And we saw in the past that revisions with more power don't necessarily appeal to a wider audience, the DSi didn't had a big impact (it's similar to the boost from the OLED model actually - 17 million after 15 months for the DSi vs 13.6 million for the OLED which had shortages), it sold 41 million after 5 years combined with the DSi XL. And I won't even mention the New 3DS.

Yes, the Switch OLED has other features but I don't think internal storage and ethernet port really push people from "not buying" into the "totally buying this" camp in a big way. I think actually the OLED in general is a decision people make after they've decided they want a Switch. They get to the in store display or get explained the difference and in some cases "hey might as well spend the extra $50 for the better screen", side by side the OLED screen definitely is going to look better than the OG Switch screen when you see it in a store. 

It's hard to know what ultimate impact the DSi XL and New 3DS models had, there could have been higher hardware decline without them. 

But ultimately yeah they're probably not in and of themselves massive hardware drivers, Nintendo didn't really even market or use the improved hardware for much in either case. Without the DSi and New 3DS though it's possible the decline in the 2nd half product cycle you'd see for both would be more pronounced. 



Soundwave said:
SKMBlake said:

It's not just the screen, it's a bigger screen, double internal storage, ethernet port, way better stand, better battery life and better speakers, and with a redesigned better dock.

And we saw in the past that revisions with more power don't necessarily appeal to a wider audience, the DSi didn't had a big impact (it's similar to the boost from the OLED model actually - 17 million after 15 months for the DSi vs 13.6 million for the OLED which had shortages), it sold 41 million after 5 years combined with the DSi XL. And I won't even mention the New 3DS.

Yes, the Switch OLED has other features but I don't think internal storage and ethernet port really push people from "not buying" into the "totally buying this" camp in a big way. I think actually the OLED in general is a decision people make after they've decided they want a Switch. They get to the in store display or get explained the difference and in some cases "hey might as well spend the extra $50 for the better screen", side by side the OLED screen definitely is going to look better than the OG Switch screen when you see it in a store. 

It's hard to know what ultimate impact the DSi XL and New 3DS models had, there could have been higher hardware decline without them. 

But ultimately yeah they're probably not in and of themselves massive hardware drivers, Nintendo didn't really even market or use the improved hardware for much in either case.

I don't think the OLED helped new comers to buy a Switch, rather having the ones with the 2017 model to upgrade to a newer version. Like the PS4 Pro, which sold 1/5 of the Slim.



SKMBlake said:
KrspaceT said:

So there are like, 10 or so Third Party Million Seller titles. I wonder what they were?

There is not much 3rd party games published by Nintendo, is it ?

Like GTA Trilogy for eg, I believe it sold a great amount (it was dicounted)

At least as of last year, 20% of game sales on the Nintendo Switch are third party. 



The Democratic Nintendo fan....is that a paradox? I'm fond of one of the more conservative companies in the industry, but I vote Liberally and view myself that way 90% of the time?

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KrspaceT said:

At least as of last year, 20% of game sales on the Nintendo Switch are third party. 

Those 20% refer to the revenue that Nintendo collects from third parties (read: royalty fees) in comparison to the revenue they earn from first party game sales. In terms of units, it's roughly a 50% split between first and third party games. But since there about a 100 times more third party games than Nintendo games on Switch, the sales of third parties are divided among many, many more titles. Add that there are only a few third parties who invest heavily into individual titles and it's not surprising that cracking the 1m mark represents a high hurdle.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.

RolStoppable said:

it's not surprising that cracking the 1m mark represents a high hurdle.

Don't forget these titled crossing the 1 million mark are the 3rd party titled published by Nintendo, not in genral.

Like Monster Hunter Rise isn't part of it.



SKMBlake said:
RolStoppable said:

it's not surprising that cracking the 1m mark represents a high hurdle.

Don't forget these titled crossing the 1 million mark are the 3rd party titled published by Nintendo, not in genral.

Like Monster Hunter Rise isn't part of it.

Basically, we're talking about Square Enix being too afraid of eating the costs of publishing and localization in the west heh lol.



Switch Friend Code : 3905-6122-2909 

Calendar year sales for Nintendo Switch's games that have sold over 25 million units

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Last edited by ShadowLink93 - on 09 February 2023

RolStoppable said:
Soundwave said:

1. Nintendo already has revised their own forecast down to 18 mill because their holiday season had soft sales, so 19 mill is pretty much out the window. They had revised down to 19 a few months ago from 21 million, so this is the second time they've had to revise downwards. 

2. If a Switch Pro was really releasing, it almost 100% would be releasing with Zelda: TOTK. I don't think people really properly understand how hardware development works either, this isn't like ordering lunch at McDonalds, hardware decisions have to be made years in advance and chip R&D has to be paid for. Nintendo can't just decide this year they need a Switch Pro and have Nvidia whip one out. I think if they were making a Switch Pro, that pretty much needed to release when the Switch OLED did. Otherwise it's what ... Switch OLED ($350) in 2021, Switch Pro ($399?) for 2023 and Switch 2 for 2025 ($399+?) ... I mean this is really overkill and getting into a release schedule that looks like a 90s Sega type of thing with expensive hardware being stacked together. Beyond that, I think Switch OLED IS the Switch Pro (or DSi XL or New 3DS equivalent), likely it was too expensive to change the hardware under the hood so they just chose to emphasize the improved display instead. 

3.) The SNES didn't sell less than the NES because the "graphics improved too much!" (literally a complaint made by no one, ever) it sold less because Sega put up tremendous competition and put them into a real fight. With the N64, Nintendo shot the poor system in the foot, the N64 would've easily outsold the SNES if Nintendo had used CD-ROM and not lost 90% of their 3rd party support straight to Sony. GameCube's success was basically tied to the PS2, Sony had to make mistakes to give Nintendo an opening and they simply didn't give Nintendo anything to work with. The problem with any of those systems wasn't with the chipset being powerful, it was a litany of poor decisions by Nintendo which then got pounced on by hungry competitors (you wanna censor Mortal Kombat? Great for Sega. You wanna kill all your developer support and give it to us by going cart-only? Great for Sony. You want to make a purple console that looks like a child's lunchbox, cell shade Zelda, and hand over your market leadership in the FPS genre? Great for Sony and Microsoft ... none of that is the fault of the chipset inside the machine being powerful or not). 

4.) "Stock prices don't matter" ... I mean yeah, they don't matter to a poster on an internet forum, lol. I'm pretty sure it does matter though to someone running a publicly traded business (of any kind). No company listens to everything every investor wants them to do, but in Nintendo's case, they probably are able to recognize they are likely on a decline pattern of this product generation, nothing "wrong" has happened, time doesn't stop for anything and we're getting up to 6 years, any hardware system is going to struggle to keep sales at peak levels. The issue centrally to Nintendo is they really only have this one hardware outlet now, it's not like there's a new home console and new portable to alternate between to boost business in the interim, so of course they are going to hear more from shareholders when the decline phase of a product cycle starts to become more obvious. 

Nintendo's stock price circa 2013 was in the shitter because it deserved to be in the shitter. They weren't delivering profits or sales. It would be the same if they were PepsiCo. or Nike or whoever. They did also cave to shareholder pressure and did agree to start making smartphone games which they previously said they would never do, so it isn't some factor that has no impact, it obviously does. 

1. I was comparing calendar years.

2. I don't think you are in the position to explain to others how hardware works. The people we have here that do know what they are talking about usually have, to explain things to you. This already shows with your comparison to 1990s Sega where you liken revisions to add-ons that had their own games.

3. The argument I made was not "Graphics improved too much, so sales suffered.", it was "Graphics didn't make people buy the new hardware."

The excuses you make for the SNES, N64 and GC fail the test of logical consistency. Tremendous competition from Sony couldn't stop Switch, nor did the lack of the vast majority of third party support Sony and Microsoft had, nor did anyone else have to mistakes in order to allow Switch to become successful. The same things hold true for the Wii.

4. It would be so nice if you could be intellectually honest for once. What shareholders demanded was that Nintendo's classic games get put on smartphones, Nintendo declined because it would hurt their core business. What Nintendo eventually did with their smartphone games was something else entirely. That's also why all the people who wanted Nintendo to do the same as the shareholders demanded don't call it Nintendo going third party even though that's what Nintendo technically did; they all know that those apps aren't the real Nintendo games.

If you want to insist that shareholders have an influence on Nintendo's decisions, then you have to prove it. But Nintendo does what Nintendo wants to do. It was true back then when their stock was very low, and it will be even more true at the current time where their stock is still very high.

3.) The XBox 360 did start regularly outselling the Wii once they released Kinect, their take on the Wii concept, which must've been a magical coincidence I guess. Switch and PS4/PS5 are not directly comparable as they're very different types of hardware, one is a home console only the other is a hybrid console with a large part of the appeal being it can function as a portable device. The SNES and Genesis were both stationary home consoles that were directly comparable, to make a relevant comparison to that era, you would need to compare a stationary Nintendo console to a Sony or Microsoft one. If Nintendo released a home console with no portable component, you think they would easily put up 120+ million sales and dominate Sony? Obviously probably not. The competition in stationary consoles is much more fierce, with the Genesis, Sega for at least a few years did a tremendous job marketing it, selling it, and even against all odds pulling a Mario-competitor out of their ass in Sonic. 

People who shit on the SNES for "losing" marketshare to the Genesis don't understand how hard Sega came at them, frankly Microsoft could learn some lessons, they are too passive in competing with Sony, Sega was incredibly in your face about it. 

And then they started making dumb management decisions which killed them. Which is basically to say hardware only goes as far as good management decisions will take it, a hardware concept or spec sheet is only one part of the equation. 

4.) Are you speaking for all Nintendo shareholders now? Some wanted, some wanted that, some wanted 800 other different things. Shareholders being upset when Nintendo's business was falling off a cliff isn't shocking or surprising. Nintendo does what they want to do, but I'd also bet "reaching some arbitrary hardware number so Nintendo fanboys on the internet can have meaningless bragging rights" is not even on their list of priorities, certainly not anywhere close to stock price or shareholders. 

Their current internal focus at this stage is likely the Switch successor, that is what their management has to be most focused on because if they are not making the right decisions on that now (honestly probably before now, going back into last year if not sooner), that is the future of the company and it will impact their business massively in 1-2 years from now.