Hard to believe that Bloomberg report of Switch production increasing tbh, it seems like all indications are pointing towards demand slowing down after Nintendo dropped their forecast again. The switch should be on the decline so it might be time to consider price cuts or new models. A Switch TV-only console would be nice and IMO more appealing than the Switch lite since many Switch players play a lot of local multiplayer games like MK,Smash,etc and may only care about the TV experience of the Switch so it could be another cheap option. The much higher sales of the Switch/Oled compared to the Lite show that many people prioritize playing on the TV.

Definitely a strong quarter for its age but factors like the lowered forecast show that it's very much in the decline phase now since with software notably down compared to the last holiday quarter even with the massive launch of Pokemon SV and 33m software sales forecast for the current quarter down from 55m last year indicates that software will start declining now as well so the successor should release in 2024. 2025 would see sales momentum and thus Nintendo's revenue and profit drop too much at the rate the decline is going. It'll do well this year for sure probably landing in the 13-15m range hardware wise and about 180m software wise but 2023 will be the last big year for the Switch.

Also Europe dropping harder than the Americas and Japan is pretty notable since it needs to do better than that there to surpass the PS2 due to its European sales while great not being amazing like it has been for the other two. The chance it does surpass it has gone down a lot lately so around 150m lifetime is looking increasingly likely. It's still possible it reaches 160m but I view that as quite unlikely now. I hope it does get there though since it'd be very cool for the record to get broken.

And man over 50m for MK8 is ridiculous. It's gonna easily go past 60m and might even finish in the 70's. Switch software in total has already surpassed the DS now so there will be a big gap by the end of 2024 with it joining the PS2/PS4 tier.

Europe could still sell high enough numbers, the Switch just needs a price cut if it wants any chance of doing that. Europe is typically a lot more reactive to price cuts in NA and Japan since  Nintendo doesn't market to every country in Europe so 3rd party distributors typically sell the Switch at a higher price than the price found in the U.S. & Japan. We'll have to see if Nintendo implements an aggressive price cut in the future.

Very surprising that New Super Mario Bros U Deluxe hasn't hit a million after three quarters.

It managed 1.45m.

On topic: These results reaffirm that 2023 needs to see a Switch revision, because price cuts are off the table due to rampant inflation anyway. Likewise, a Nintendo Direct is due, because eventually Nintendo has to show something of Tears of the Kingdom as well as have more than "Pikmin 4 is coming in 2023" when we look beyond the release date of Tears of the Kingdom.

Regarding the revised forecasts, Nintendo is going safe with hardware, but as usual too safe with software. This quarter may not have any big Nintendo release, but expecting a 40% decline year over year is a bit much.