| Norion said: Definitely a strong quarter for its age but factors like the lowered forecast show that it's very much in the decline phase now since with software notably down compared to the last holiday quarter even with the massive launch of Pokemon SV and 33m software sales forecast for the current quarter down from 55m last year indicates that software will start declining now as well so the successor should release in 2024. 2025 would see sales momentum and thus Nintendo's revenue and profit drop too much at the rate the decline is going. It'll do well this year for sure probably landing in the 13-15m range hardware wise and about 180m software wise but 2023 will be the last big year for the Switch. Also Europe dropping harder than the Americas and Japan is pretty notable since it needs to do better than that there to surpass the PS2 due to its European sales while great not being amazing like it has been for the other two. The chance it does surpass it has gone down a lot lately so around 150m lifetime is looking increasingly likely. It's still possible it reaches 160m but I view that as quite unlikely now. I hope it does get there though since it'd be very cool for the record to get broken. And man over 50m for MK8 is ridiculous. It's gonna easily go past 60m and might even finish in the 70's. Switch software in total has already surpassed the DS now so there will be a big gap by the end of 2024 with it joining the PS2/PS4 tier. |
Europe could still sell high enough numbers, the Switch just needs a price cut if it wants any chance of doing that. Europe is typically a lot more reactive to price cuts in NA and Japan since Nintendo doesn't market to every country in Europe so 3rd party distributors typically sell the Switch at a higher price than the price found in the U.S. & Japan. We'll have to see if Nintendo implements an aggressive price cut in the future.
