It definitely looks like a 20m+ year now. My original prediction was the 18-20m bracket because I didn't expect Sony to be able to get rid of their production shortages for the full extent of twelve months. But their revised forecast for the January to March quarter (which became news only after this thread was created) already showed the general direction for calendar year 2023 and Sony's forecast for the current fiscal year cements it.

With Microsoft being as weak as they are, there's not much of a reason to doubt that Sony can meet their forecast, even if Sony's first party "games as a service" initiative flops for the most part or even entirely. Speaking of Microsoft, the prediction thread for them was based on them having a ~9.5m year in 2022, but I've noticed that later on VGC adjusted down in the ballpark of 1m units. Originally I had pegged 2023 as a 10-11m year for Microsoft (a modest increase), but by now even being up at all looks like a serious challenge. And being flat would now mean ~8.5m instead of ~9.5m. In other words, it's possible that Xbox gets outsold by PS by a full 3:1 ratio in favor of Sony in 2023.

Yes the adjustments down have certainly had a big effect on predictions for Xbox. -30% hardware revenue in the first quarter and MS's forecast for the next quarter seem to imply they expect hardware to be down YoY again. It's looking like they may need a very strong holiday quarter, +25% or more YoY, with Starfield and Forza just to match last year.

Generally it seems PlayStation was under-estimated due to not expecting such high shipments were possible or that unmet demand was that high. Xbox was over-estimated due to not expecting such a poor start to the year and in general the Switch predictions seem like the most accurate, barring any coming surprises from Nintendo that could change this.

26mil for this year if they hit their forecast for the next fiscal year.
Seems more likely than ever.

The results are in. VGChartz currently estimates the PS5 sold 21.636m units in 2023. My prediction of 19-20m in this thread was under the mark.

@ShadowLink93 and @NobleTeam360 were the closest posts I saw with 20.5m and 20-21m predictions respectively.

Multiple people predicted under 14m sales.

Ignoring the top two and bottom two poll options to weed out trolls and jokes responses the average prediction from the polled users would be 19.2m so PS5 outperformed VGChartz user expectations by 12.5%

14M or less wasn’t a completely unreasonable guess for those who expected supply issues to continue. Thankfully that wasn’t the case.

PS5 obliterated a lot of our predictions here, especially with its record breaking calendar Q1.

As far as Sony's fiscal report goes, looks like PS5 will be at ~17m or so after the holiday quarter with one to go.  Most of us expected Sony to miss its 25m target, but the Playstation 2 will keep the crown for biggest PS fiscal year after all, with the PS1 probably hanging on to second place at 21.6m.

I hit the nail on this one, amazing Year for Sony. It will fall short of 25M, but can still hit ~23M, perhaps even 24M with some extreme level of luck. 

I'm curious, now that it's been about a year what are your thoughts on this and current expectations for the PS5?

Unlike the Switch's this one was closer to an unskewed normal distribution with even tails. In this case, 59% underpredicted it and 24% overpredicted it, which is about the opposite of the Switch's distribution, though more evenly distributed as I noted before.

I chose '16-17.9M' because I thought it would be in the 17-17.5M range.
What's funny is that despite being wrong by more than 4M units by the end, the last three quarters were roughly what I had expected. It was that absolutely monster first quarter that threw me off.