| Zippy6 said: So sell-through for the first quarter is now 5.4m after Sony shipped a record 6.3m in the Jan-March quarter. Sony are now forecasting 25m shipped for the Fiscal Year ending March 31st 2024. Even if Sony beat the all-time record again with 6.4m Jan-March 2024 this 25m forecast would still mean 24.9m shipped for the Calendar Year 2023. Basically it would seem any prediction under 20m can now be thrown out of the window. There is even the potential for selling double the amount of certain predictions in here. |
It definitely looks like a 20m+ year now. My original prediction was the 18-20m bracket because I didn't expect Sony to be able to get rid of their production shortages for the full extent of twelve months. But their revised forecast for the January to March quarter (which became news only after this thread was created) already showed the general direction for calendar year 2023 and Sony's forecast for the current fiscal year cements it.
With Microsoft being as weak as they are, there's not much of a reason to doubt that Sony can meet their forecast, even if Sony's first party "games as a service" initiative flops for the most part or even entirely. Speaking of Microsoft, the prediction thread for them was based on them having a ~9.5m year in 2022, but I've noticed that later on VGC adjusted down in the ballpark of 1m units. Originally I had pegged 2023 as a 10-11m year for Microsoft (a modest increase), but by now even being up at all looks like a serious challenge. And being flat would now mean ~8.5m instead of ~9.5m. In other words, it's possible that Xbox gets outsold by PS by a full 3:1 ratio in favor of Sony in 2023.
Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV will outsell Super Smash Bros. Brawl. I was wrong.
