I get the feeling that devs may struggle to put 9th Gen multiplats on Switch 2 in the same way 8th gen multiplats like RE4 Remake aren't coming to Switch 1 right now. Which means they wouldn't really be under any pressure to get the system out earlier for the sake of 8th gen releases.
Switch is still doing well, so they can just keep going for years.

But I could still see it happening during 2024 holiday season.

I expect 2023 was the original target pre-2020 but that will for sure have gotten delayed so I'll go with some time in 2024 since if 2023 was still the year it'd already be either officially confirmed or all but officially confirmed at this point. With the sales decline quickening now I think 2025 is quite unlikely since they're not gonna want revenue and profit to drop too much before releasing a successor and the Switch's momentum will decline a lot by 2024, especially the 2nd half. I also really hope it's not 2025 since the hardware is already showing its age a ton and I don't want Japanese games to be held back by it any longer than needed.

Next year likely

Yeah there is all that, plus they won't want to cut off sales at all for Holiday 2023 by announcing anything before the end of the year. Also presumably we'll get a couple big titles on the Switch next holiday - Prime 4 and a 2D Mario would be the most obvious and those would probably be the last really major first party titles to come to the Switch.

It seems to make the most sense for them to announce the successor roughly 4-5 months ahead of the launch to give people enough time to get excited and save up to buy it and to market it but not so much time that they're gonna lose a lot of Switch sales.

So I think the earliest we get an announcement would be Jan 2024 for a May/June launch (doing another March launch just wouldn't make sense with the timing unless its March 2025), or otherwise late-Spring/early-Summer 2024 announcement for a November 2024 launch.

March 2025 doesn't seem too likely because Switch HW sales are indeed dropping now so unless they plan on doing a couple price drops sales will definitely be a good bit below 15m in 2024. Sure they're gonna be enormous amounts of software but I doubt they have another round of major game releases planned for the Switch as those should be going to the successor and I expect after TotK that Prime 4 and a 2D Mario would be the last big games on the system with a few more medium sized releases, so old SW might be selling a ton in 2024 but I wouldn't expect them to have any major new games in 2024 on the Switch, and if that is the case waiting to 2025 to release a successor wouldn't make sense.

So basically Q1 or Q2 2024 announcement and a Q2 or Q4 2024 launch seems like the most obvious choices.

Not this year, i doubt. There would be much more rumors if it was the case. At the very least it's not until holiday this year... but again i feel like 2024 will be the year. It is time for sure but i feel like Switch had some wasted potential with the amount of ports they made. I truly hope they will slow down the amount of ports and remaster on the next system, hopefully Switch will be backward compatible to avoid that.

You got these gen numbers to low. PS5 and XBS are considered 9th gen.

Q1 2024, february.

A couple things: it looks like VGC is less optimistic about a Switch 2 releasing this year than many YouTube personalities. That doesn't surprise me. This bunch here is a bit more educated, particularly when it comes to hardware sales, of course. Secondly, there is a strong group who believe 2025 or later (possibly never) will be the release timing of the Switch successor. I don't think this is out of the realm of possibility, particularly if there is a delay or Nintendo is indeed taking the Apple route.

Finally, the vast number of people believe that 2024 is the launch year of the Switch 2 with half believing it will launch in the first half of the year, just as the Switch did, and the other half expecting it in the second half of the year, as is more traditional for console releases. Personally I think the holiday timing makes the most sense as it is a tried and true launch period. Announcing a system to release in Q1 of a given year will certainly tank sales in the prior Q4. I suppose it's possible to announce in Q1 for a release in Q2, but I still think it's a bad look. The Switch was announced for a Q1 launch well in advance and it wasn't like the announcement was going to cause the WiiU to falter any more than it already was.

I just don't think Nintendo is in a do or die period this year or even early next year. There is plenty of software already in the pipeline that will keep folks interested in 2023 and though sales are starting to lag, I wouldn't say they are in a rapid decline. That may come, especially if Nintendo decides not to pursue aggressive bundles or price cuts, but at this point I feel like we're in a typical 4th year pattern, hardly a time for panic, but certainly a time for action.

Came so close to buying a switxh lite yesterday. Changed my mind last second. They're too expensive for what they're worth .

You're right. I edited my post now.