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Forums - Politics Discussion - Brazil's 2022 Presidential Election

Bofferbrauer2 said:

From what I get as an outside observer (correct me if I'm wrong), Lula won the first round with almost 50%, so chances are he'll win the election.

However, it looks like Congress will have a big push towards Bolsonaro's parties, so I don't know if this would be any hindrance to Lula if he'll be elected.

The congress is really bad, but we there is a workaround: To buy the establishment with position on ministries and laws that please them 

In Brazil there is a group of congressperson with no clear position on ideological spectre (although deep down most of them are conservative). They are generally single-issue politicians, relatives of other politicians and delegates of some industries who are there to protect the interest of their working classes. 

Those politicians have a name, we call them The Big Center (Centrão), because they can vote with whoever is on government, as long their demands are met. It's like selling you soul to devil, but this is what it is. Lula is very used to deal with them anyway 

In other hand, the Senate this year is clear and obviously right wing and borderline fascist. There was almost no center elected. Those parties aren't on politics just to farm some money and laws to please their own material and financial interests, their intent is to destroy the left wing parties. They will vote against Lula even on propositions they would otherwise vote along if they were proposed by Bolsonaro, because their main concern will be dehydrate the state as much as possible so they can win presidential elections in 2026

To give context, Bolsonaro has now enough majority of senate to nuffily most of Supreme Court decisions, and even to dissolve the Court itself as they can now judge the Ministers of the Supreme Court for crimes of responsibility and misuse of laws. 

The Senate is now, by all means, the rulers of Brazil. 



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mZuzek said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

From what I get as an outside observer (correct me if I'm wrong), Lula won the first round with almost 50%, so chances are he'll win the election.

However, it looks like Congress will have a big push towards Bolsonaro's parties, so I don't know if this would be any hindrance to Lula if he'll be elected.

At this point it's just about getting rid of Bolsonaro, people tend to vote for whoever sides with the current president so the president has to change before the congress.

Anyway. Lula has a 5% lead on Bolsonaro, which is quite decent, but both the next candidates (Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes) sided with Bolsonaro this year and they amassed 7% of the vote, if we assume most of their voters go with Bolsonaro on the second round, well... Let's just hope they don't. It's kinda weird because Ciro Gomes has traditionally always sided with the left-wing candidates, his voters always go with the left-wing option on the second round, no idea why he did what he did this year and unsurprisingly it lost him a lot of votes. Which again points to his few voters now siding with Bolsonaro.

I'm sure Tebet will side with Lula

She's might be a ruralist, but she's not a fascist

I was thinking she would be neutral, mas she made sure that she will speak her mind in an matter of two days at best

The question is... will her votes go for Lula? Personally I don't care, they can vote null if they please, they just can't go for Bolsonaro



So, Brazilian friends, what's your opinion on what the runoff is looking like, with Lula getting 48 percent of the general election vote, Bolsonaro getting 43% of the vote? It doesn't sound like people expected Bolsonaro to do as well in the general election as he did.



SanAndreasX said:

So, Brazilian friends, what's your opinion on what the runoff is looking like, with Lula getting 48 percent of the general election vote, Bolsonaro getting 43% of the vote? It doesn't sound like people expected Bolsonaro to do as well in the general election as he did.

Highly concerned, but trying to stay optimistic. It seemed throughout their campaign that Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet were siding with Bolsonaro, but Ciro has now asked people to vote for Lula and it seems Simone might follow. So maybe there is hope after all. Lula only needs less than 2% more votes so maybe it will be fine.



mZuzek said:
SanAndreasX said:

So, Brazilian friends, what's your opinion on what the runoff is looking like, with Lula getting 48 percent of the general election vote, Bolsonaro getting 43% of the vote? It doesn't sound like people expected Bolsonaro to do as well in the general election as he did.

Highly concerned, but trying to stay optimistic. It seemed throughout their campaign that Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet were siding with Bolsonaro, but Ciro has now asked people to vote for Lula and it seems Simone might follow. So maybe there is hope after all. Lula only needs less than 2% more votes so maybe it will be fine.

I'm trying to stay optimistic as well. Good luck to Brazil... and the rest of us.



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SanAndreasX said:

So, Brazilian friends, what's your opinion on what the runoff is looking like, with Lula getting 48 percent of the general election vote, Bolsonaro getting 43% of the vote? It doesn't sound like people expected Bolsonaro to do as well in the general election as he did.

Late reply, but in the first round the right has outperformed polls in the last 3-4 elections so I kind of feared that might happen. Second round polls are more reliable though and it seems Lula will win so far (maybe 51 - 46 or so, being realistic, so basically Trump vs Biden).



 

 

 

 

 

Best of luck to those in Brazil! Hopefully Lula pulls through!



Oh shit here we go. This will be a tight one folks (but hopefully not too tight).



 

 

 

 

 

Lots of reports coming in throughout the country, mostly in regions that favour Lula, that the military police are stopping buses so that people can't vote. Not just reports, videos too. All kinds of censorship going on against Lula, they're tearing down posters, telling people not to support him "so Brazil can remain safe" and all in the name of Jesus and what not, borderline threatening people if they vote "wrong".

...

Honestly, even if Lula wins, which seems more unlikely given what's happening right now, I'm not so sure he'll actually become president. I thought already in 2018 that electing this piece of shit was leading us into a military dictatorship, and it took longer than expected but it sure feels closer than ever now.

It's terrifying.



Oh there's also some videos where the literal fucking army is on the streets.