I think somewhere between 16-17 million. But it could go a lot lower if the Switch 2 is planned for early 2024.

15 millions 2023
10 millions 2024 (new model)

Between 14-16 million units.

Seems that 2022 saw a WW decline of around 20%, it will be higher in 2023.

I'm gonna say 4m in Japan, 15-16m globally.
I had been thinking 17-18m but 2022 looks to be about 1.5m lower than what I had expected this year (though Japan was exactly what I expected) so the slowdown is definitely coming.

Unless Nintendo actually takes steps to sell more systems like a HW price drop ($170/$250/$300), SW price drops to $30 or $40 on a bunch of first party games, more impressive bundles over the holidays, put out a big final wave of games consumers would like (i.e. DK, SF, Prime remake, Prime 4, WW/TP, Kid Icarus, 2D Mario, etc). If they really try to actively maximize sales with competitive practices and have a lot of software in the works coming out I could see that blunt the sales drop and Switch selling 17m.

How ? It's sitting at 16.5 million and the full month of December (with usually sales around 1 million per week) has yet to happen

I assume this is for the Calendar year not fiscal. 2022 calendar year will probably hit 20 million shipments on the nose which would be around a 3.5 million decline year over year so a similar decline would mean around 16.5 million. I'm hoping for 17 million though.

Calendar Year Hardware Shipments

What about Software sales? 2022 could hit 240 million and be the peak year for software but from 2023 onward software will decline. i think 2023 will be below 200 million with Zelda TOTK possibly being the last AAA first party release.

Calendar Year Software Shipments

Let me clarify. 17-18m for 2023 had been my thought. But since 2022 looks like right at 20m instead of the 21-22m I had expected, I think I need to adjust my 2023 prediction down to like 15m-16m.

Oh okay now I understand, thanks!

And happy new year!

If no successor arrives, then around 15 million.

It will turn 6 years old soon, so it's only natural that it's slowing down. Its strong evergreen library and new releases like Zelda will ensure it's a gentle slope as opposed to a cliff.