I think even without a Pro model Switch could top 14.2 million next year just on the strength of its evergreen library and continued support.

Switch Vs DS

Switch's FY6 should beat DS, and after that DS falls off a cliff.

As far as outpacing DS in the long run, it all depends on when Switch is replaced, but it will almost definitely sell over 17.52 this year.

If Switch 2 doesn't release until March 2024 then i expect the next two years to go something like this

@ShadowLink93 I think 17.50 is too high with a successor launching in March 2024. ~14M seems reasonable with the successor in March 2024.

Personally I think 2024 is too early for a successor and hope for a 2025 launch or at least Holiday 2024.

In hindsight, launching the lower cost Series. S looks like a genius decision. Obviously we can never know this, but I wonder how things would have worked out without the supply constraints.

Also, it would be interesting to know how many of those series S units are a second console in an Xbox household. I have one, for use In my secondary gaming setup in my bedroom. I have a Series X in the basement. It is not likely that I would have two of the current gen systems this early in the generation if it weren't for the lower price point.

Another thing that I think really works out well for Microsoft for a business standpoint is that while I was mostly a physical media buyer until a couple of years ago, the existence of the all digital system in my household has caused me not to buy a single physical game in this generation. But, they still get the PR win of not forcing people into digital. Works out really well for them.

So I think Game pass and the all digital nature of the series S work together to kill off physical media sales on Xbox, without forcing anybody to take that route.

Yeah I wouldn't go quite as high as 17.5 for year 7.
With revisions/price cuts I can see 15m being doable.

17.5m for FY7 is a little on the high side.  However, if you put in 15.5m for FY7 and 10m for FY8, then the Switch passes DS LTD at that point.  That looks extremely doable to me.