Sony should do a lot more for components shortages.

It says mexican gamers prefer sports and shooting games so is not a surprise that Xbox would be competitive there. 

You think that XBox is going to gain 20 million customers this gen without taking any from Sony?  They both cater to the exact same console purchaser.  They both had to release Pro versions last gen to get to 116m PS4's and 50m XBox One's.  That was early adopters double dipping on a major hardware revision to boost lifetime sales.  That netted PS4 a 30m lifetime increase over the PS3, while XBox One netted around a 30m decrease from the 360 (resulting from not having a headstart, not having a pricepoint advantage, and massive self-inflicted PR flops early on).  Yet you assume that Microsoft can gain back 20m console sales without affecting PS5 sales in the slightest?  As I've said in previous posts, I have no doubt that PS5 will have healthy sales later in the gen.  But, to assume that 100m console purchases are just sitting on the sidelines right now waiting for a PS5 to drop in their lap is to live in a bubble of wishful thinking.  The XBox Series is clearly being boosted by sales of the Series S to customers who aren't going to wait for PS5 or Series X to be readily available.  A large portion of those customers aren't going to buy a PS5 when it happens to have plentiful stock down the line, because it's a big ask for the general consumer to invest in 2 highpriced consoles within years of each other.  They might even trade in their Series S for the Series X later, since they will already have been building up a catalogue of games for that system.  You don't have to think that the XBox Series will surpass the PS5 in lifetime sales to acknowledge that a boost in Series sales will definitely cut into the PS5's lifetime sales.  That's the caveat of 2 console manufacturers consistently developing similar hardware with the largest software sales coming from the same 3rd party games available on both systems.  The sales #'s of PlayStations and XBoxes has shown that play out for the past 3 generations.  It's illogical to assume that this gen will have a radically different sales correlation between the two.

I have a number of friends from the UK (and I’m based out of the US) and in both countries a story I am hearing frequently from those friends is getting tired of waiting for a PS5 and just switching back to Xbox. Obviously this is anecdotal, but I think the US and UK are two countries where this has a chance of snowballing out of Sony’s control, if they don’t get stock fixed soon.

Two of my friends that switched to PS4 last gen went and bought a Series X this week. If Xbox can keep them on shelves, this is going to keep happening

Without COD being exclusive it's very unlikely that XS would dominate to that level.  I mean, it would take everything to go right for Microsoft and probably some bad luck for Sony as well, but even without any of that exclusivity I fully expect XS to beat the PS5 in NA, so I'd say at least a modicum of a chance exists.

My issue wasn't so much whether or not the XS would be able to achieve that, but the very lopsided comparison you made:  While the XS could at least approach 360 dominance in NA, the PS5 selling as much as the PS2 in Japan is a complete pipe dream.

Xbox 360 sold nearly 50 Million units compared to the PS3's 29 Million units in NA. There is zero chance the Series X/S achieves a 25M+ swing without complete Call of Duty exclusivity and Sony fumbling the PS5 from here on out. 

Quote it. I'll eat crow if Xbox Series X/S wins NA by 20M+ units without complete Call of Duty exclusivity or Microsoft acquiring Take Two Interactive and making GTA6 exclusive. That's what it will take for that era of Xbox dominance to return. 

Yeah, the 360 had 50M in NA to PS3 30M. That is quite a gap. But Xbox winning NA this gen over PS seems not only quite doable, but actually likely. How much it pulls ahead of PS5 is yet to be decided.

Can I specify which crows? I have these crows in my back yard that annoy me basically every day, because they are competing with a Hawk over the tree. This has been going on for MONTHS. I hear their horrible HAAA noise followed by the Hawk's SQUEEE noise, back and forth, sometimes for hours in a row. It's maddening. If you lose, can you please eat my back yard crows? Not only will you have my favor, but also this Hawk's favor.

Xbox outselling the PS5 in NA isn't the same as the Series X/S dominating the PS5 like the Xbox 360 did to the PS3. I mean, the former is a lot more plausible, despite being a bit unlikely, but it wouldn't be the most surprising thing to happen. Without COD exclusivity, how will the Series X/S approach 360 dominance in NA, which is a 20M+ lead? Mind you, it's not approaching 360 level dominance with a 5M - 10M lead over the PS5 by the end of this generation. Xbox would need to handily outsell the PS5 in NA whenever it gets massive drops of stocks, and not just during shortages, for that to happen.

That's not even considering how much more popular Sony IP's are compared to the PS3 era. Take Miles Morales, a PS5 launch title that outsold Call of Duty Vanguard on the PSN charts in December 2021, after the theatrical release of No Way Home. SpiderMan 2 will be massive in NA and is scheduled to launch in 2023, which could also coincide with another SpiderMan theatrical release, whereas the COD that is scheduled to be released in 2023 is reportedly delayed into 2024. That hypothetical scenario is already setting up the Xbox Series X/S to be dominated in NA on a level that the Xbox 360 never experienced. Series X/S cannot afford to lose any year in NA if they want to achieve Xbox 360 level dominance.