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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 101M, PS5 Tops 17M - Global Hardware Dec 19 to 25

trunkswd said:
Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

Can PS4 still outsell the Game Boy?

Unless shipped far more PS4 consoles to retail this holiday than we are seeing, there is pretty much no chance the PS4 outsells the Game Boy.

PS4 sales have been so low the last year I bet Sony will discontinue it this year.



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The Wii reached 101mil at a crawling pace while the Switch just flew past it with no brakes.

Last edited by Kakadu18 - on 08 January 2022

trunkswd said:
Ninten78 said:

How long of a life do you see the console having?

I think it's safe to say Nintendo won the 9th gen.

Pretty much no chance the PS5 or Xbox Series X|S will outsell the Switch. Combined PS and Xbox sales have been relatively stable for the past 3 generations with combined sales of around 170 million. I'd expect Xbox to eat into PS sales this generation due to its far stronger first-party lineup than the last generation.

As for how long of a life do I see the Switch having? I wouldn't expect a Switch successor until March 2023 at the earliest. Holiday 2023 or 2024 for the Switch successor seems to be the most likely window for it to launch. 

At the end of 2023 I can see Switch sales of around 135-140 million. Sales of 20-22 million this year and 15-18 million next year.

My thoughts exactly,  That's why when people assume that the PS5 will reach PS4 sales because of its stellar start, I feel that they aren't looking at the bigger picture.  I don't see any way that Xbox Series doesn't outsell the XB1, so unless people expect some massive growth of the PS/Xbox ecosystem over the last few generations, I see the PS5 falling a bit short of the PS4's lifetime sales.

I could be wrong though, since we obviously don't know exactly what will play out yet; maybe Sony goes with PS5 for 10 years before its successor, but not likely.  I think Switch's sales by the end of this year will be beyond what the PS5 will reach.



Sogreblute said:
trunkswd said:

Unless shipped far more PS4 consoles to retail this holiday than we are seeing, there is pretty much no chance the PS4 outsells the Game Boy.

PS4 sales have been so low the last year I bet Sony will discontinue it this year.

That is entirely possible as Sony focuses on making as many PS5 consoles as possible. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

archbrix said:
trunkswd said:

Pretty much no chance the PS5 or Xbox Series X|S will outsell the Switch. Combined PS and Xbox sales have been relatively stable for the past 3 generations with combined sales of around 170 million. I'd expect Xbox to eat into PS sales this generation due to its far stronger first-party lineup than the last generation.

As for how long of a life do I see the Switch having? I wouldn't expect a Switch successor until March 2023 at the earliest. Holiday 2023 or 2024 for the Switch successor seems to be the most likely window for it to launch. 

At the end of 2023 I can see Switch sales of around 135-140 million. Sales of 20-22 million this year and 15-18 million next year.

My thoughts exactly,  That's why when people assume that the PS5 will reach PS4 sales because of its stellar start, I feel that they aren't looking at the bigger picture.  I don't see any way that Xbox Series doesn't outsell the XB1, so unless people expect some massive growth of the PS/Xbox ecosystem over the last few generations, I see the PS5 falling a bit short of the PS4's lifetime sales.

I could be wrong though, since we obviously don't know exactly what will play out yet; maybe Sony goes with PS5 for 10 years before its successor, but not likely.  I think Switch's sales by the end of this year will be beyond what the PS5 will reach.

We could see the combined PS and Xbox sales this generation being higher than in previous generations. But I wouldn't expect it to be that much higher. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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archbrix said:
trunkswd said:

Pretty much no chance the PS5 or Xbox Series X|S will outsell the Switch. Combined PS and Xbox sales have been relatively stable for the past 3 generations with combined sales of around 170 million. I'd expect Xbox to eat into PS sales this generation due to its far stronger first-party lineup than the last generation.

As for how long of a life do I see the Switch having? I wouldn't expect a Switch successor until March 2023 at the earliest. Holiday 2023 or 2024 for the Switch successor seems to be the most likely window for it to launch. 

At the end of 2023 I can see Switch sales of around 135-140 million. Sales of 20-22 million this year and 15-18 million next year.

My thoughts exactly,  That's why when people assume that the PS5 will reach PS4 sales because of its stellar start, I feel that they aren't looking at the bigger picture.  I don't see any way that Xbox Series doesn't outsell the XB1, so unless people expect some massive growth of the PS/Xbox ecosystem over the last few generations, I see the PS5 falling a bit short of the PS4's lifetime sales.

I could be wrong though, since we obviously don't know exactly what will play out yet; maybe Sony goes with PS5 for 10 years before its successor, but not likely.  I think Switch's sales by the end of this year will be beyond what the PS5 will reach.

On top of this, with each passing generation, games get easier to access with more ways to play. There will be people buying a Steam Deck in 2022 that would normally have bought a console. There are many people gaming with Xcloud, Stadia, Amazon, that would otherwise have bought a console. Home console sales are doomed to decrease over generations, but their respective companies profits will only increase.

Hardware sales will one day be meaningless in regards to which company truly dominates.



archbrix said:
trunkswd said:

Pretty much no chance the PS5 or Xbox Series X|S will outsell the Switch. Combined PS and Xbox sales have been relatively stable for the past 3 generations with combined sales of around 170 million. I'd expect Xbox to eat into PS sales this generation due to its far stronger first-party lineup than the last generation.

As for how long of a life do I see the Switch having? I wouldn't expect a Switch successor until March 2023 at the earliest. Holiday 2023 or 2024 for the Switch successor seems to be the most likely window for it to launch. 

At the end of 2023 I can see Switch sales of around 135-140 million. Sales of 20-22 million this year and 15-18 million next year.

My thoughts exactly,  That's why when people assume that the PS5 will reach PS4 sales because of its stellar start, I feel that they aren't looking at the bigger picture.  I don't see any way that Xbox Series doesn't outsell the XB1, so unless people expect some massive growth of the PS/Xbox ecosystem over the last few generations, I see the PS5 falling a bit short of the PS4's lifetime sales.

I could be wrong though, since we obviously don't know exactly what will play out yet; maybe Sony goes with PS5 for 10 years before its successor, but not likely.  I think Switch's sales by the end of this year will be beyond what the PS5 will reach.

Yeah, Microsoft kinda screwed up Xbox One from the start. Xbox Series will have many more exclusives, deals, and we have Series S as a cheap alternative to next-gen gaming.



I have a Youtube channel... A Twitter, and... Yeah.

PS+Xbox sales will grow from previous generations. Sony is supplying almost as many PS5s as they did PS4 but they are nowhere close to satisfying demand. And Xbox will obviously grow. Neither will reach Switch numbers of course.



The Wii has been overtaken and there's probably still at least 40 million switches left to be sold, very impressive.

archbrix said:
trunkswd said:

Pretty much no chance the PS5 or Xbox Series X|S will outsell the Switch. Combined PS and Xbox sales have been relatively stable for the past 3 generations with combined sales of around 170 million. I'd expect Xbox to eat into PS sales this generation due to its far stronger first-party lineup than the last generation.

As for how long of a life do I see the Switch having? I wouldn't expect a Switch successor until March 2023 at the earliest. Holiday 2023 or 2024 for the Switch successor seems to be the most likely window for it to launch. 

At the end of 2023 I can see Switch sales of around 135-140 million. Sales of 20-22 million this year and 15-18 million next year.

My thoughts exactly,  That's why when people assume that the PS5 will reach PS4 sales because of its stellar start, I feel that they aren't looking at the bigger picture.  I don't see any way that Xbox Series doesn't outsell the XB1, so unless people expect some massive growth of the PS/Xbox ecosystem over the last few generations, I see the PS5 falling a bit short of the PS4's lifetime sales.

I could be wrong though, since we obviously don't know exactly what will play out yet; maybe Sony goes with PS5 for 10 years before its successor, but not likely.  I think Switch's sales by the end of this year will be beyond what the PS5 will reach.

Yep, the sales of them are very highly linked to how well the other does so unless people buying both becomes more common it'll be difficult for the PS5 to outsell the PS4.



Switch has passed the Wii now, but we pretty much knew that would happen in the past weeks.
PS4 seems to have sold more in North America this week than Europe. Unless Sony has a large restock soon, it seems the PS4 will finish about 1 million or more behind the Game Boy+Game Boy Color.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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