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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Nintendo Switch sell in 2022?

 

How many units will Nintendo Switch sell in 2022?

12-15M 2 6.45%
 
15-18M 2 6.45%
 
18-22M 11 35.48%
 
22-25M 12 38.71%
 
25M+ 4 12.90%
 
Total:31
         

How many units will Nintendo Switch sell in 2022?

12-15M 0 $0.00 0%
 
15-18M 2 $750.00 6.45%
 
18-22M 12 $2,602.00 38.71%
 
22-25M 15 $4,210.75 48.39%
 
25M+ 2 $78.24 6.45%
 
 
Totals: 31 $7,640.99  
Game closed: 03/31/2022

Switch will decline more next year than it has this year, I can see it selling up to 24m but no more. Going to vote 18-22m but it'll be the higher end of that. Switch peaked in 2020 and decline will accelerate from now on. 20-22m



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Before Nintendo revised their forecasting down from 25.5 mil. to 24 mil. I predicted 2021 with 26.5 mil. sell-through (I thought Nintendo was lowballing with 25.5. mil. shipped, and it's also calendar year vs. fiscal year) and 22.5 mil. for 2022. After the revision, I predict 25 mil. for 2021 (still think Nintendo is lowballing) and 24 mil. sell-through for 2022.

It's a bit cheap but I just added the lost 1.5 mil. because of chip-shortages to 2022, that's why my new prediction for 2022 is actually higher than before. Ultimately, it depends on how big the chip shortages will be in 2022. Also, calendar vs. fiscal year is always confusing for me, although, my predictions are made for the calendar years, my mind actually thinks more in line with Nintendo's fiscal years and reports and so I guess my prediction resembles more fiscal years.



The Wii experienced a baby drop of 2.3m down to 22.52m in 2009 from its peak of 24.82 in 2008.  It's first significant drop was a 5.33m decrease to 17.19 in 2010.  If 2021 is the initial baby drop from its 2020 peak, then I don't expect the Switch's first significant drop to be greater than the Wii's 5m drop.  Of course it all depends on how many Switches Nintendo is able to sell by the end of this holiday season.  But, I decided to be bold and went with the 22-25m option in the poll.



22-25. It will have an insane amount of exclusives and massive ones. It will have a full year with OLED and should be more in stock. If sales drop too much they could still cut the price and i doubt they will let it die like that by losing 5-6 millions compared to 2021.



I voted 18-22m, but I expect it to be at the higher end of that, probably around 21-22m. I imagine chip shortages will continue to cause difficulty with producing more units than that, and considering sales have already likely peaked, I can't see it going any higher than this year regardless of the stock issues. Still, Switch continues to hold its momentum, and has a ton of major releases already announced for 2022, so it'll still do really well.



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The Switch has been very unpredictable. 2022 could be as low as 18 million units, but could be around 25 million as well depending on supply and demand.
I voted 18-22 million and I think right around 20 million will be the total. PS5 and Switch will be closer in 2022 because Switch will sell less compared to 2021 and PS5 will sell more.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

25.5



I'm too broke to bet but I would guess 20-22M. Some big games are landing next year.

Pokemon, BotW2, Prime4



I voted 22-25m. Demand for OLED will still be going strong for at least the beginning of 2022 if not the whole year. More importantly 2022 is going to have an incredible year for software. Switch sales are going to stay strong.



I think it will be in the 22 - 25 range, possibly closer to 22. Obviously, I expect 2022 to be lower than 2021, but I think it should still be above 20m. I'm of the opinion that we will get another Switch model in Holiday 2022.