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Forums - Sales Discussion - How many units will Nintendo Switch sell in 2022?

 

How many units will Nintendo Switch sell in 2022?

12-15M 2 6.45%
 
15-18M 2 6.45%
 
18-22M 11 35.48%
 
22-25M 12 38.71%
 
25M+ 4 12.90%
 
Total:31
         

How many units will Nintendo Switch sell in 2022?

12-15M 0 $0.00 0%
 
15-18M 2 $750.00 6.45%
 
18-22M 12 $2,602.00 38.71%
 
22-25M 15 $4,210.75 48.39%
 
25M+ 2 $78.24 6.45%
 
 
Totals: 31 $7,640.99  
Game closed: 03/31/2022

Voted for 22m-25m. I don't foresee a scenario where Switch sells less than 20m in 2022, even with chip shortages. They'll sell everything they ship, so I expect it to be pretty much flat with this year since I believe that there will be sufficient demand for it. I don't think we'll see Switch slow down next year with the OLED being such a sought after item and the software they plan to drop in 2022: BOTW2, Splatoon 3, Pokemon Legends Arceus (included for calendar, not fiscal), Rabbids, 3D Kirby, Bayo 3, Triangle Strategy, AW, Turtles... and that's just what we know. I don't think that saturation is going to greatly affect sales just yet.



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It should drop next year but the question is how big will it be. After two 29 million years the DS only had a small drop to 27 million so it's possible something similar could happen for the Switch. I dunno how likely that is though so for now I'll go with 20-22m but I wouldn't be surprised if it does 23-25m either.



archbrix said:

Unfortunately, it's almost a prerequisite for Zelda games to suffer at least one delay from their official announced release date.  I'm hoping that BOTW2 bucks the trend, though.

I think there are plenty of examples where that did not happen. Majora's Mask, Wind Waker, Spirit Tracks, A Link Between Worlds. I'm not saying it's not possible, but they have the world built, they have the assets done (for the most part). Unless there is a very large departure when it comes to the world I couldn't see how five years wouldn't be enough time for them. 



Doctor_MG said:
archbrix said:

Unfortunately, it's almost a prerequisite for Zelda games to suffer at least one delay from their official announced release date.  I'm hoping that BOTW2 bucks the trend, though.

I think there are plenty of examples where that did not happen. Majora's Mask, Wind Waker, Spirit Tracks, A Link Between Worlds. I'm not saying it's not possible, but they have the world built, they have the assets done (for the most part). Unless there is a very large departure when it comes to the world I couldn't see how five years wouldn't be enough time for them. 

Worth noting that many people made that exact same argument for why it would launch in 2020 when it was announced in 2019. "It's the same map, same engine". That sure went well.

But I think it's more likely it will launch in 2022 than not.



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Zippy6 said:
Doctor_MG said:

I think there are plenty of examples where that did not happen. Majora's Mask, Wind Waker, Spirit Tracks, A Link Between Worlds. I'm not saying it's not possible, but they have the world built, they have the assets done (for the most part). Unless there is a very large departure when it comes to the world I couldn't see how five years wouldn't be enough time for them. 

Worth noting that many people made that exact same argument for why it would launch in 2020 when it was announced in 2019. "It's the same map, same engine". That sure went well.

But I think it's more likely it will launch in 2022 than not.

Indeed. In fact, I was one that was pretty sure that it would launch this year, in time for Zelda's 35th anniversary.  Should have known better...



Zippy6 said:

Worth noting that many people made that exact same argument for why it would launch in 2020 when it was announced in 2019. "It's the same map, same engine". That sure went well.

But I think it's more likely it will launch in 2022 than not.

I suppose this is true, but I think that saying it'll come out after 5 years of development with many assets and models already done (not saying there wont be new stuff) in the year that Nintendo actually says it will release is much more logical than assuming it will come in the year of a major pandemic when Nintendo hadn't announced it's release window yet based on the assumption that everything would be carried over alone. 



Doctor_MG said:
Zippy6 said:

Worth noting that many people made that exact same argument for why it would launch in 2020 when it was announced in 2019. "It's the same map, same engine". That sure went well.

But I think it's more likely it will launch in 2022 than not.

I suppose this is true, but I think that saying it'll come out after 5 years of development with many assets and models already done (not saying there wont be new stuff) in the year that Nintendo actually says it will release is much more logical than assuming it will come in the year of a major pandemic when Nintendo hadn't announced it's release window yet based on the assumption that everything would be carried over alone. 

Not to mention the fact that Breath of the Wild has been the strongest selling title in the history of the franchise, and the Switch has been selling like a beast for over 4 years without even needing a pricecut.  In this instance, Nintendo actually had the incentive to not rush out a sequel within a couple of years.  If Nintendo stands firm that the Switch is at the midpoint of its lifecycle, it makes more sense to have held Breath of the Wild 2 back a bit to be a sales driver for the 2nd half of that lifecycle.



Mandalore76 said:

Not to mention the fact that Breath of the Wild has been the strongest selling title in the history of the franchise, and the Switch has been selling like a beast for over 4 years without even needing a pricecut.  In this instance, Nintendo actually had the incentive to not rush out a sequel within a couple of years.  If Nintendo stands firm that the Switch is at the midpoint of its lifecycle, it makes more sense to have held Breath of the Wild 2 back a bit to be a sales driver for the 2nd half of that lifecycle.

Good points, but also if it is the mid-cyle, and Zelda is still to be considered a pillar for a launch period, we could see BotW2 as the pillar for the srart of the 2nd cycle, and I am pretty sure Nintendo would not want to lose any momentum either as of next year when the bell curve inevitable starts bending down. So Nintendo would need to buck the trend and BotW2 would be their best candidate. It's a highly popular franchise for them right now.



padib said:
Mandalore76 said:

Not to mention the fact that Breath of the Wild has been the strongest selling title in the history of the franchise, and the Switch has been selling like a beast for over 4 years without even needing a pricecut.  In this instance, Nintendo actually had the incentive to not rush out a sequel within a couple of years.  If Nintendo stands firm that the Switch is at the midpoint of its lifecycle, it makes more sense to have held Breath of the Wild 2 back a bit to be a sales driver for the 2nd half of that lifecycle.

Good points, but also if it is the mid-cyle, and Zelda is still to be considered a pillar for a launch period, we could see BotW2 as the pillar for the srart of the 2nd cycle, and I am pretty sure Nintendo would not want to lose any momentum either as of next year when the bell curve inevitable starts bending down. So Nintendo would need to buck the trend and BotW2 would be their best candidate. It's a highly popular franchise for them right now.

Yes, that's the gist of what I was saying.  Release it now as the sales driver for the rest of Switch's lifecycle, rather than 2 years ago when it wasn't as needed from that perspective.