Worth noting that many people made that exact same argument for why it would launch in 2020 when it was announced in 2019. "It's the same map, same engine". That sure went well.
But I think it's more likely it will launch in 2022 than not.
I suppose this is true, but I think that saying it'll come out after 5 years of development with many assets and models already done (not saying there wont be new stuff) in the year that Nintendo actually says it will release is much more logical than assuming it will come in the year of a major pandemic when Nintendo hadn't announced it's release window yet based on the assumption that everything would be carried over alone.