25 million+

Between 15 and 18 million
I think it's getting to the point where everyone who wants a switch will already have one.

I’m thinking 22M. What’s it doing this year, 27-ish? So a mild drop seems right.
22 sucks though because you have 18-22 and 22-25 lol. So which one to pick. I’ll say it’ll do 22.01 and pick the latter.

20-22m.

A lot of people are saying that Switch is yet to receive a price cut, but with components being scarce, prices will remain the same or will rise.

Software possibly will do a few bumps but nothing like 2020 or 2021.
We are reaching to saturation point despite fans saying otherwise.

I think you underestimate software bump, especially if BOTW2 releases.

And there are still many people who want to upgrade to the OLED model.

And also there is still room for another upgrade, like a OLED Lite

And about the saturation, I would've thought the same if I didn't end up buying a Switch Lite 2 weeks ago despite having an OG Switch from early 2017.

Over 22mil. I don't see how it would drop below 20mil already and since we just got a new model and the software lineup is huge. And since I'm optimistic I went with the 22-25mil option.

It will depend on the chip shortage but I dont see them selling less than 22million, provided they can provide enough units, especially for the OLED model.

It's hitting saturation soon, I think. Plus it doesn't have a revision that entices original buyers enough to buy a newer version. The OLED is great for new people, but only the most hardcore of hardcore will buy it if they already own a functioning original Switch. Plus with the new Covid variant factories will once again be losing production capabilities as companies won't want disease to spread (no matter how lethal or not it is, people freak out about everything now). Count on the media to keep focusing on Covid, increasingly, leading up to the 2022 Midterms. Ideally I wouldn't have to bring up politics in this thread, but politics can absolutely impact production capabilities, so I'm sticking with my 15-18 million prediction and wagered 700 made up VGChartz currency on it.

I plan to buy a made up island with my winnings. It will have a ski resort at the top of the half dormant/half covered in snow volcano with a Blue slope leading all the way down to the beach and a ramp that let's you get some mad air jumping into the ocean before gently landing on the Black Pearl and having 30 variations of identical Jack Sparrows amusing you with their counterproductive chatter and actions.

Switch will decline more next year than it has this year, I can see it selling up to 24m but no more. Going to vote 18-22m but it'll be the higher end of that. Switch peaked in 2020 and decline will accelerate from now on. 20-22m

Before Nintendo revised their forecasting down from 25.5 mil. to 24 mil. I predicted 2021 with 26.5 mil. sell-through (I thought Nintendo was lowballing with 25.5. mil. shipped, and it's also calendar year vs. fiscal year) and 22.5 mil. for 2022. After the revision, I predict 25 mil. for 2021 (still think Nintendo is lowballing) and 24 mil. sell-through for 2022.

It's a bit cheap but I just added the lost 1.5 mil. because of chip-shortages to 2022, that's why my new prediction for 2022 is actually higher than before. Ultimately, it depends on how big the chip shortages will be in 2022. Also, calendar vs. fiscal year is always confusing for me, although, my predictions are made for the calendar years, my mind actually thinks more in line with Nintendo's fiscal years and reports and so I guess my prediction resembles more fiscal years.