VGC estimates that the Xbox Series X|S sold through 7.6m by the end of September. Lifetime sales expectations? | |||
| Less than 30 million | 47 | 5.84% | |
| 30.0 - 39.9 million | 28 | 3.48% | |
| 40.0 - 49.9 million | 34 | 4.22% | |
| 50.0 - 59.9 million | 107 | 13.29% | |
| 60.0 - 69.9 million | 188 | 23.35% | |
| 70.0 - 79.9 million | 171 | 21.24% | |
| 80.0 - 89.9 million | 153 | 19.01% | |
| 90.0 - 99.9 million | 33 | 4.10% | |
| 100.0 - 110.0 million | 22 | 2.73% | |
| More than 110 million | 22 | 2.73% | |
| Total: | 805 | ||
Oneeee-Chan!!! said:
Wouldn't you say that a 3.3 percent difference is within the margin of error? I find it interesting that the numbers he's claiming for Xbox differ from VGC by over 10 percent. |
Even more reason to not trust these numbers.
| Evilms said:
|
Well ok then. Guess the Switch had a ton of unsold stock then.
Expect it to drop around the 60-69.9 mark and thinking more closer to 70M. Markedly better than last generation due to a better launch, more affordable SKU and stronger first party effort.
Last edited by hinch - on 17 November 2021
It kinda feels relevant to this thread: Masahiro Sakurai finally got his Xbox Series X:
https://twitter.com/Sora_Sakurai/status/1459712059344445441?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
So one unit more sold.
We're starting to get new figures suggesting the Xbox Series S is performing on par or above the Series X so at the end, if its purpose as a complementary console works (to the PS5 or the Switch), it can gain a lot of attraction
| src said: 1st year sales are small for consoles compared to their LTD. XB1 outpaced 360 in its first year as well, but was unable to come close to the 360 in year 3-5. PS4 for instance had 4 years close to 20M. The bulk of console sales were in those years. Right now, the PS: XB split is same as PS4:XB1 for everything I have seen. The TSMC estimates for each chip had PS5 at 16 million and XB at 8 million (estimates from chip die sizes). |
Why do you use PS:XB split as a base to predict how Series X|S will perform? Especially considering that right now both Sony and Microsoft sell everything they produce and at least Series X and PS5 both go out of stock the minute they become available. Using this split will not say anything about the demand for both consoles. Why not compare Xbox One vs Xbox Series X|S launch aligned, especially considering that this forum has a dedicated thread that has this data updated weekly and it definitely says way more about real state of things than some vague PS:XB split.
406,148 
The_Liquid_Laser said:
You can click on the link on my sig to go back to our original discussion. I said 130m was the max for PS5 + X|S, IIRC. Right now, I am not totally confident in my X|S prediction or even my PS5 prediction if you break them down separately.. That is why I bet PS5 + X|S numbers. If X|S is higher than PS5 will be lower and vice versa. At this point I wouldn't be terribly shocked if X|S goes 30m or 70m. I could see either possibility. But PS5 numbers will adjust to compensate. |
30m for XS would mean it's sold over a quarter of its lifetime sales in its first 11 months, all while being supply constrained, and before any of its big games arrive. That is highly unlikely.
curl-6 said:
30m for XS would mean it's sold over a quarter of its lifetime sales in its first 11 months, all while being supply constrained, and before any of its big games arrive. That is highly unlikely. |
Generation 9 is very different from Generation 8. Generation 8 was extremely predictable. Anyone could have predicted the outcome before PS4 and XB1 were ever released. Sony basically won the generation the moment they made this video.
Generation 9 is not so easy to predict. It is a generation where the gaming landscape will radically change. It is more like Generation 5. Both the CD-Rom and Sony's entrance changed the gaming landscape quite a bit, especially on the business side. This would have been very hard to predict back in the day, because Sega CD and Phillips CDi were both big missteps. Also, Nintendo was undefeated and was sticking with cartridges. None of that changed the fact that disc based gaming was going to become the new norm.
We are now at the point where disc based gaming is on its way out. When Generation 10 starts, a high powered disc based console is going to look like a dinosaur. It's going extinct. It's being replaced by hybrid consoles and subscription services. Both of these formats are fighting hard to be the new norm. At least one of them will be the new norm, with a good chance that both will become the new norm.
All of the console sales happening this year are misleading. Generation 9 will not progress like Generation 8 did. Things are being massively shook up. Eventually, the data is going to show that gamers' tastes are changing. These powerful disc based consoles are on the way out.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
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406,148
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Generation 9 is very different from Generation 8. Generation 8 was extremely predictable. Anyone could have predicted the outcome before PS4 and XB1 were ever released. Sony basically won the generation the moment they made this video. Generation 9 is not so easy to predict. It is a generation where the gaming landscape will radically change. It is more like Generation 5. Both the CD-Rom and Sony's entrance changed the gaming landscape quite a bit, especially on the business side. This would have been very hard to predict back in the day, because Sega CD and Phillips CDi were both big missteps. Also, Nintendo was undefeated and was sticking with cartridges. None of that changed the fact that disc based gaming was going to become the new norm. We are now at the point where disc based gaming is on its way out. When Generation 10 starts, a high powered disc based console is going to look like a dinosaur. It's going extinct. It's being replaced by hybrid consoles and subscription services. Both of these formats are fighting hard to be the new norm. At least one of them will be the new norm, with a good chance that both will become the new norm. All of the console sales happening this year are misleading. Generation 9 will not progress like Generation 8 did. Things are being massively shook up. Eventually, the data is going to show that gamers' tastes are changing. These powerful disc based consoles are on the way out. |
Even if your proposed paradigm shift were to happen, both PS5 and Xbox Series already have disc-less digital models and subscription services.
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