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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 110 million 35 4.06%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 88 10.20%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 176 20.39%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 183 21.21%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 130 15.06%
 
150.0 - 159.9 million 141 16.34%
 
160.0 - 169.9 million 55 6.37%
 
170.0 - 179.9 million 11 1.27%
 
180.0 - 190.0 million 7 0.81%
 
More than 190 million 37 4.29%
 
Total:863

I voted 130-140M, pretty sure it will fall somewhere between them.



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130m-140m



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RolStoppable said:

Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m units by September 30th. What are your lifetime sales expectations?

17 months ago the same question was asked, results below. Ignoring the lowest and highest poll options due to high likelihood of lacking sincerity of the voters, ~45% voted for definitely lower lifetime sales than the PS4 (which had shipped 110.4m LTD at that time), ~34% for similar sales as the PS4 and only ~9% expected Switch to outsell the PS4. In other words, even during its fourth year the majority of people still underestimated Switch sales.

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 55.77m by March 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 80 million715.77%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million877.07%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million14812.02%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million32226.16%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million22818.52%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million19115.52%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million604.87%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million282.27%
 
150.0 - 160.0 million211.71%
 
More than 160 million756.09%
 
Total:1,231

Bonus question: What is your favorite Switch release up till now?

I don't know where that thread is, but I probably voted More than 160 million.  I can tell you that I would have been sincere in this prediction for as long as I've been on the forum here.

This time I'm voting 170m-179.9m.  Although I may revise this either up or down in a few weeks.



I went 130 million, I think it will dry up quickly in 2022/2023, especially as we hear about the Super Switch 2.



Alright, let's see... Since Nintendo struggles with shortages and this year won't meet my expectations, I go with these numbers:

2021: 103m
2022: 123m (+20m)
2023: 137m (+14m)
2024: 144m (+7m)
2025: 147m (+3m)
2026 - end of life: 150m (+3m)

So I expect that Switch will end up below PS2 and DS, but at a pretty close gap. Very difficult to me if Switch reaches 150m or not. It would have been much easier without chip shortages...

Next year should be (besides shortages) pretty safe another 20m+ year with the new OLED model and the already very strong first party software support. In 2023 I expect only Metroid Prime 4 as the last big first party title for Switch. The Switch successor should launch holidays '23 or March '24 with the all-new big open world 3D Mario and Mario Kart 9 within its first year.

My favorite Switch release is Zelda BotW, besides Octopath Traveler and Dragon Quest XI.



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Not sure how can anyone go with 130m or lower. Even if the console goes:

End of 2021 - 100m
2022 - 15m
2023 - 7.5m
2024 - 2.5m

That right there is an extreme cliff, and it still ends at 125 million units.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

145-150M if the successor comes out in 2024.



145m or thereabouts is a reasonable prediction i feel. Not sure if it can go much higher, if at all, due to market saturation.

Bonus question:- Smash i guess. Absolute hoot in multiplayer and an excellent single player selection of modes. Probably in my top 5 of all time if i'm honest.



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I voted in the 140 million range. The Switch continues to dominate video game hardware sales. I predict around 144 million, but it could of course get a few million higher than that or even exceed 150 million. We'll see.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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yo33331 said:

There is another thread and poll about this .. why again ?

Because this one goes on the frontpage of the website and gets seen and voted in by ten times more people.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments