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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 110 million 35 4.05%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 88 10.19%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 176 20.37%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 183 21.18%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 130 15.05%
 
150.0 - 159.9 million 142 16.44%
 
160.0 - 169.9 million 55 6.37%
 
170.0 - 179.9 million 11 1.27%
 
180.0 - 190.0 million 7 0.81%
 
More than 190 million 37 4.28%
 
Total:864

Alright, let's see... Since Nintendo struggles with shortages and this year won't meet my expectations, I go with these numbers:

2021: 103m
2022: 123m (+20m)
2023: 137m (+14m)
2024: 144m (+7m)
2025: 147m (+3m)
2026 - end of life: 150m (+3m)

So I expect that Switch will end up below PS2 and DS, but at a pretty close gap. Very difficult to me if Switch reaches 150m or not. It would have been much easier without chip shortages...

Next year should be (besides shortages) pretty safe another 20m+ year with the new OLED model and the already very strong first party software support. In 2023 I expect only Metroid Prime 4 as the last big first party title for Switch. The Switch successor should launch holidays '23 or March '24 with the all-new big open world 3D Mario and Mario Kart 9 within its first year.

My favorite Switch release is Zelda BotW, besides Octopath Traveler and Dragon Quest XI.



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Not sure how can anyone go with 130m or lower. Even if the console goes:

End of 2021 - 100m
2022 - 15m
2023 - 7.5m
2024 - 2.5m

That right there is an extreme cliff, and it still ends at 125 million units.



My bet with The_Liquid_Laser: I think the Switch won't surpass the PS2 as the best selling system of all time. If it does, I'll play a game of a list that The_Liquid_Laser will provide, I will have to play it for 50 hours or complete it, whatever comes first. 

145-150M if the successor comes out in 2024.



145m or thereabouts is a reasonable prediction i feel. Not sure if it can go much higher, if at all, due to market saturation.

Bonus question:- Smash i guess. Absolute hoot in multiplayer and an excellent single player selection of modes. Probably in my top 5 of all time if i'm honest.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

I voted in the 140 million range. The Switch continues to dominate video game hardware sales. I predict around 144 million, but it could of course get a few million higher than that or even exceed 150 million. We'll see.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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160-165 mill
BQ: TLZ BOTW.



34 years playing games.

 

150



Here's my forecasted sales by year

End of 2021: 103 Million

End of 2022: 122 Million (19 Million Year)

End of 2023: 136 Million (14 Million Year)

End of 2024: 143 Million (7 Million Year) Switch 2 Launch

End of 2025: 146 Million (3 Million Year)

Total: ~147 Million

My prediction seems to be the slightly more pessimistic case of a drop off and the Switch still reaches close to 150 Million. Anyone who says switch will sell under 130 Million clearly doesn't know what they're talking about. Unlike alot of people im expecting the switch to fall just short of 20M in 2022. I'm expecting a bigger drop-off in 2023 since that may be the year where rumors and a switch 2 announcement are coming out and we may see a slower 2023 lineup as Nintendo is preparing for Switch 2, so I expect a pretty gradual decline. Than 2024 I expect switch 2 to release but interest in the switch may still be there since it is cheap with a killer library, plus Nintendo may not want to drop the ball on the Switch too early just in case the Switch 2 doesn't work out, kinda like how the 3DS was to the Switch. So I expect a big decline but still a solid 7 million. 2025 and after most people will probably already move on from the Switch as I expect another 4 million before all said and done, bringing the grand total to 147 Million, falling just short of DS/PS2 but easily within reach of those two.



I'm pretty sure it'll fall somewhere between 140-170 million so I'll go with 150-159.9 million since it's the most interesting range. Also it's funny that despite the Switch repeatedly exceeding expectations over the years slightly over half of the votes are for cliff scenarios since the decline would have to be pretty damn steep to not reach 140m let alone 130m at this point.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

This is a purposely pessimistic projection I made back in April to show what the likely minimum for the Switch is now and it should exceed the 2021 number by at least a bit so 2022 and onwards will have to be even lower than this to not reach 140m.

Last edited by Norion - on 08 November 2021

At present I expect ~130m. If Switch makes good headway in the next 12 months, IE: 21m+, I definitely will have to adjust upwards.