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I'm pretty sure it'll fall somewhere between 140-170 million so I'll go with 150-159.9 million since it's the most interesting range. Also it's funny that despite the Switch repeatedly exceeding expectations over the years slightly over half of the votes are for cliff scenarios since the decline would have to be pretty damn steep to not reach 140m let alone 130m at this point.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

This is a purposely pessimistic projection I made back in April to show what the likely minimum for the Switch is now and it should exceed the 2021 number by at least a bit so 2022 and onwards will have to be even lower than this to not reach 140m.

Last edited by Norion - on 08 November 2021