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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 110 million 35 4.06%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 88 10.20%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 176 20.39%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 183 21.21%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 130 15.06%
 
150.0 - 159.9 million 141 16.34%
 
160.0 - 169.9 million 55 6.37%
 
170.0 - 179.9 million 11 1.27%
 
180.0 - 190.0 million 7 0.81%
 
More than 190 million 37 4.29%
 
Total:863
RolStoppable said:
yo33331 said:

There is another thread and poll about this .. why again ?

Because this one goes on the frontpage of the website and gets seen and voted in by ten times more people.

mine is also on the frontpage of the website, and to date has more views than yours. Mine also was voted by way more people, however I reset the poll since the new figures came in. Mine has many more posts than yours.

And besides are doing battle of threads or what ? There is no need of two threads with the same name and topic ...

Last edited by yo33331 - on 08 November 2021

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yo33331 said:
RolStoppable said:

Because this one goes on the frontpage of the website and gets seen and voted in by ten times more people.

mine is also on the frontpage of the website, and to date has more views than yours. Mine also was voted by way more people, however I reset the poll since the new figures came in. Mine has many more posts than yours.

And besides are doing battle of threads or what ? There is no need of two threads with the same name and topic ...

I wasn't talking about the Hot Topics list, but the Poll of the Week on the frontpage. That's a huge difference which can be easily seen in the number of votes. Your poll received ~20 votes over the course of the last few days while the frontpage poll got more than 100 votes in under ten hours.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
yo33331 said:

mine is also on the frontpage of the website, and to date has more views than yours. Mine also was voted by way more people, however I reset the poll since the new figures came in. Mine has many more posts than yours.

And besides are doing battle of threads or what ? There is no need of two threads with the same name and topic ...

I wasn't talking about the Hot Topics list, but the Poll of the Week on the frontpage. That's a huge difference which can be easily seen in the number of votes. Your poll received ~20 votes over the course of the last few days while the frontpage poll got more than 100 votes in under ten hours.

Still, this is not a reason for everyone to make new threads, if so everyone could now make, and there will be tons of duplicate new threads.

Also as I already said, mine had many more votes, but I reset the poll.



yo33331 said:

Still, this is not a reason for everyone to make new threads, if so everyone could now make, and there will be tons of duplicate new threads.

Also as I already said, mine had many more votes, but I reset the poll.

Not everyone can do this, only poll admins and there are only two on this website. I toggled the banner on for you to see, but I'll turn it off again within a day.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:
yo33331 said:

Still, this is not a reason for everyone to make new threads, if so everyone could now make, and there will be tons of duplicate new threads.

Also as I already said, mine had many more votes, but I reset the poll.

Not everyone can do this, only poll admins and there are only two on this website. I toggled the banner on for you to see, but I'll turn it off again within a day.

As a poll admin, can you not make yo33331's poll "poll of the week"?



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padib said:

As a poll admin, can you not make yo33331's poll "poll of the week"?

I can, but that's the only thing I could do. I cannot edit the poll or the original post with the numbers and content I want to have in there. Additionally, the thread isn't supposed to be a longrunning one (like his one is), but a snapshot in time like the preceding polls of this kind that I've run in 2020.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

160-165 mill
BQ: TLZ BOTW.



34 years playing games.

 

150



Here's my forecasted sales by year

End of 2021: 103 Million

End of 2022: 122 Million (19 Million Year)

End of 2023: 136 Million (14 Million Year)

End of 2024: 143 Million (7 Million Year) Switch 2 Launch

End of 2025: 146 Million (3 Million Year)

Total: ~147 Million

My prediction seems to be the slightly more pessimistic case of a drop off and the Switch still reaches close to 150 Million. Anyone who says switch will sell under 130 Million clearly doesn't know what they're talking about. Unlike alot of people im expecting the switch to fall just short of 20M in 2022. I'm expecting a bigger drop-off in 2023 since that may be the year where rumors and a switch 2 announcement are coming out and we may see a slower 2023 lineup as Nintendo is preparing for Switch 2, so I expect a pretty gradual decline. Than 2024 I expect switch 2 to release but interest in the switch may still be there since it is cheap with a killer library, plus Nintendo may not want to drop the ball on the Switch too early just in case the Switch 2 doesn't work out, kinda like how the 3DS was to the Switch. So I expect a big decline but still a solid 7 million. 2025 and after most people will probably already move on from the Switch as I expect another 4 million before all said and done, bringing the grand total to 147 Million, falling just short of DS/PS2 but easily within reach of those two.



I'm pretty sure it'll fall somewhere between 140-170 million so I'll go with 150-159.9 million since it's the most interesting range. Also it's funny that despite the Switch repeatedly exceeding expectations over the years slightly over half of the votes are for cliff scenarios since the decline would have to be pretty damn steep to not reach 140m let alone 130m at this point.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

This is a purposely pessimistic projection I made back in April to show what the likely minimum for the Switch is now and it should exceed the 2021 number by at least a bit so 2022 and onwards will have to be even lower than this to not reach 140m.

Last edited by Norion - on 08 November 2021