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It'll end up in the 140s or 150s. Should be around 125 by end of next year, or at least very close to it, which should put it at around 140 by end of 2023. Assuming a Spring or Holiday 2024 release for successor.

So probably over 150m. Worst case scenario, like if sales fall a bit more than expected next year despite the crazy software lineup and then it hits "the cliff" in 2023 then maybe it'd end up at 140-145m. Don't really see a case for anything under 140m, and 160m is very unlikely unless they do a Switch Pro or like a not expensive Switch Pro Home and push off the successor for a bit.

Will be interesting to see if Nintendo does much in the way of hardware price cuts. During this gen they have mostly sworn off price cuts entirely, with even old ports priced at $60, no price cuts on the Lite even though it is struggling now. It'd obviously help sales out a bunch in the later years if they introduce the Nintendo Selects or whatever it's called now and offer a bunch of first party games at $30, and if the Lite eventually hits like $130, and the OLED eventually at like $250 (assuming the original will get discontinued). But these days it is hard to know if Nintendo will even bother doing any aggressive pricing on software and hardware.

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 10 November 2021