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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

Nintendo Switch shipped 92.87m by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 110 million 35 4.06%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 88 10.20%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 176 20.39%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 183 21.21%
 
140.0 - 149.9 million 130 15.06%
 
150.0 - 159.9 million 141 16.34%
 
160.0 - 169.9 million 55 6.37%
 
170.0 - 179.9 million 11 1.27%
 
180.0 - 190.0 million 7 0.81%
 
More than 190 million 37 4.29%
 
Total:863

At present I expect ~130m. If Switch makes good headway in the next 12 months, IE: 21m+, I definitely will have to adjust upwards.



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I voted for 140-149. That is my prediction if Nintendo does not do a Pro Switch model. If we get a Pro model, I think we should get more than that.

Difficult to say, since a lot can change these numbers but Switch still has at least 2 full years of support, if not 3. I'm sure we will see a price cut at some point in late 2022 or in 2023. Especially with a Pro model.



     

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As of this moment, I go with a tentative 160-169 million option. If Nintendo plays their cards rights, (and that's a big IF), the Switch should go on to be the best selling system of all time.

BQ: Over 4 1/2 years after it came out and with all of these amazing games we've had since then... My #1 Switch game is STILL Breath of the Wild.



cycycychris said:

I voted for 140-149. That is my prediction if Nintendo does not do a Pro Switch model. If we get a Pro model, I think we should get more than that.

Difficult to say, since a lot can change these numbers but Switch still has at least 2 full years of support, if not 3. I'm sure we will see a price cut at some point in late 2022 or in 2023. Especially with a Pro model.

This is why i find it surprising that 64 people vote less than 130. it should end up above 100 this year. Next year should be around 20 so is not hard to get to 130.



I voted for 140-149 million. Like others have said, the switch will (most likely) be around 105 million by the end of this fiscal year, and assuming Nintendo isn't lying about the switch having a longer lifespan than normal then 30 million more should be easy over the next two years. There has to be a price cut eventually, along with "Nintendo Select" titles selling for $20, which will bring in lower income/late adopters. If they don't release a successor until 2025 then I think 150 million+ is a possibility, but I'm guessing (based on nothing but my gut instinct) that it will come out in 2024, which will cut sales a bit.



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More than 160 million



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~140M-145M, assuming a successor in late 2023/early 2024.

Super Mario Odyssey is still my favorite Switch game to date.



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It'll end up in the 140s or 150s. Should be around 125 by end of next year, or at least very close to it, which should put it at around 140 by end of 2023. Assuming a Spring or Holiday 2024 release for successor.

So probably over 150m. Worst case scenario, like if sales fall a bit more than expected next year despite the crazy software lineup and then it hits "the cliff" in 2023 then maybe it'd end up at 140-145m. Don't really see a case for anything under 140m, and 160m is very unlikely unless they do a Switch Pro or like a not expensive Switch Pro Home and push off the successor for a bit.

Will be interesting to see if Nintendo does much in the way of hardware price cuts. During this gen they have mostly sworn off price cuts entirely, with even old ports priced at $60, no price cuts on the Lite even though it is struggling now. It'd obviously help sales out a bunch in the later years if they introduce the Nintendo Selects or whatever it's called now and offer a bunch of first party games at $30, and if the Lite eventually hits like $130, and the OLED eventually at like $250 (assuming the original will get discontinued). But these days it is hard to know if Nintendo will even bother doing any aggressive pricing on software and hardware.

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 10 November 2021

150m at this point.



165 people so far have voted less than 130.