In 2016 Nintendo only released very few games, their Switch launch year lineup was in active development. Super Mario Odyssey, Xenoblade Chronicles 2, Arms, Fire Emblem Warriors, Splatoon 2 (this game has more differences than you give it credit). Only BotW was crossgen and MK8DX got alot of new content. Unless you expect three or more crossgen releases and an actual ton of ports, not just two (which won't even make any sense, since it's likely backwards compatible) it's not reasonable to expect the Switch 2 in 2023.

Telling someone they haven't thought this through is no way to have a polite discussion, first of all. Secondly, Wii didn't have a pandemic the previous year or more that caused massive delays on everything. Switch 2022 lineup is so good because many of it's games were originally planned for 2021, just as many 2021 games were meant to come out 2020 before Covid. If they have games to release, it's not like they just aren't going to release them. I think by mid 2022 the Covid delays should be mostly wrapped up and we will see a significant drop in major first party games coming from then on as most studios will be fully into making Switch 2 games.

You're listing some games here that came out 7+ months after launch though. It just seems silly that because Nintendo has announced a lot of games coming in 2022 that the following 2 years are going to be completely barren.

Look at the day-one 1st party launch titles for the last 3 Nintendo consoles:

3DS:
nintendogs + cats:
Pilotwings Resort

WiiU:
New Super Mario Bros U
Nintendo Land

Switch:
BOTW
1-2-Switch
Snipperclips

Nintendo don't launch a system with an army of content and just because they are releasing Splatoon 3, Kirby, Arceus and BOTW 2 next year doesn't mean that they won't be able to launch a system Holiday 2023. They only need one big game to launch and then follow up in the following months with more content just as they did with Switch. Saying they can't have a lineup of content for Switch 2 starting Holiday 2023 continuing through to Summer 2024 because of 2022 releases is worrying.

If Nintendo have no unannounced major titles that can launch Holiday 2023 to Summer 2024 to support a new Holiday 2023 system launch I would be incredibly worried.

My point was cross gen games can carry consoles early on, which 2017 was. Especially in the first half of that year.

1. You most certainly do when you're launching a brand new console with a userbase starting at 0. ESPECIALLY if you're Nintendo and you rely completely on your own 1st party output to sell your system.

2. If that were true, the Wii U and 3DS would have sold extremely well right out of the gate despite their piss poor launch lineups and we wouldn't have gotten the Switch in 2017, if at all.
It took a huge price cut just 5 months after launch + 3D Land and Mario Kart 7 for the 3DS to finally get going. The Wii U NEVER got going, long software droughts being one of the main culprits why. It's launch lineup was completely barren and boring outside of New Super Mario Bros. U, and by that point the New Mario series had worn out its welcome. And the hardware just plain sucked.

The Switch, as unique and great as it is, would have done MUCH worse at launch if it didn't have Breath of the Wild as its launch title. That fucking game shipped more than the system itself!!! It was the Killer App that the Switch absolutely needed to have in order for it to have a chance and Nintendo knew it. Then it had Mario Kart immediately afterwards, then Splatoon 2 to entice Japanese buyers, and the newest 3D Mario game for the holiday season along with stellar B-C tier titles sprinkled here and there. That Year 1 lineup for the Switch is among the best Year 1 lineups for any system in history and it absolutely lit the fuse for the Switch to explode the way it has. Without it, the Switch would not be selling at the level it is now. 

As for the OLED. People want it because it's an upgraded version of an already cool and desirable console with a crap ton of great games. Simple as that. A mid-gen upgrade is very different from a brand new console.

Do you not remember the WiiU's first year first party wise? Nintendo Land, NSMBU, Pokemon Rumble, WWHD, W101 and SM3DW, the WiiU is ironic as it was the third parties who turned up for its first year, this happened because as Nintendo highlighted the demands of HD development were more than expected so this isn't really a good argument as decades ago development didn't have the demands of HD and above.

We're not going to have a 6 year cycle with Switch as things stand it's going to be more a 7-8 year one for it.

It worked for the Switch for 2 main reasons.

1) It wasn't backwards compatible.

2) The Wii U was a piece of garbage that nobody owned outside of the diehard Nintendo fans who are going to buy any and everything they put out anyway.

To the dedicated and casual gaming audience OUTSIDE of Nintendo, all of those games were all brand new experiences. 

Yes absolutely, BOTW catapulted the Switch. It was a cross-gen game. I'm not saying line-up isn't important, but I think the shear amount of content that Nintendo apparently need to get ready for Day One is being overstated here. Like you say BOTW was the only big game day-one for Switch.

The insinuation that because Nintendo has a strong 2022 lineup it's impossible for them to get ready for a Console launching in Nov 2013 and do the same as they did with the Switch and support it over the next 8+ months with a steady stream of titles is silly. 

They only need one big title to launch it is it really impossible to see something like this because they have 4 games launching in 2022?:

Mario Kart 9 - Holiday 2023
Pokemon (Switch + Switch 2(BC)) - Holiday 2023
Some other title (Paper Mario? Fire Emblem? Xenoblade? DKC?) - Feb-March 2024
Super Mario Odyssey 2 - Summer 2024
- more steady releases etc.

They can easily have a short lull in releases in the first 10 months of 2013 and then be ready to punch out some games over the next 12 months to launch a system.

Obviously they can have a line up of games in Switch 2's first year. But no new games from quite a few franchises unless the already announced games for next year are already almost the entire lineup for the year and we won't get any Mario platformer or Fire Emblem game etc. so that those can release on the next system. But even then the Switch 2 would lack it's own Zelda and Splatoon games for way to long. Smash Bros. too, no way a new one is launching before 2025. A Luigi's Mansion game could be a first year title though and Metroid Prime 4, maybe Mario Party.

I just don't see them launching the Switch successor right after the year of a new 3D Zelda game. Because of the pandemic they pushed many games back. I think they also delayed the next console.

I do think they should not have an empty, barren year before the launch of a new system again and with a different lineup in 2022 I might have agreed with a 2023 launch, but now with a Zelda game.

All of Dulfite's arguments completely ignore though, that Furukawa said in 2020 that the Switch was in the middle of it's life. Following that 2024 would be the logical launch year for the next system, not 2023. A 6 year life cycle would not be longer than usual, which is what Furukawa said the Switch would have.

Games that take 4-5 years to make aren't being crunched on by a 200+ team the whole time. Years 1-2, sometimes even year 3 have a small team doing the big picture stuff. Not a bunch of coding going on. Those games meant to come out in 2021 that are delayed until 2022 were likely in their last year of development prior to Covid, so they had a lot of code/art/voice acting/etc. to do. Whereas games due on Switch 2 in 2023, if that happens, were only in years 1-3 at maximum as of 2020.