The only reason these hardware numbers should be considered disappointing is if you expected the first batch of OLED shipments to be included, otherwise it's a really solid quarter.

The Switch OLED launched only 8 days after this shipment number. Surely OLED launch numbers ARE included in the shipped data. Consoles take more than 8 days to go from being shipped to being ready for sale at retailers.

This is why Shipped is always at least hundreds of thousands higher than Sell-through even if a console is completely sold out, because delay from being marked as shipped to being available for buyers.

Of course we know that OLED shipments weren't insanely high as week 2 plummeted and then bounced back in week 3. I'm sure this includes at least the week 1 stock for OLED's.

They aren't, Nintendo breaks down shipments by model and they did not include OLED shipments.

211104_4e.pdf (nintendo.co.jp)

Bottom of page 10: "Sales units of Nintendo Switch include the Nintendo Switch - OLED Model, which started shipping from
the second quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31, 2022."

They combined Switch + Switch OLED sales in the graph, only Lite is separate. 

Shipments aligned the Nintendo Switch is 10.57m above PS4, 5.28m above Wii and 14.88m behind NDS.

Cool, thanks for the correction. I find it kind of odd that they don't seperate the two though.

Nintendo Switch is the 7th best selling videogame console ever and it could jump to 5th in the next quarter.

It could be because of the form factor. As in Switch Lite is a dedicated handheld while the other two are both the same. So they want to differentiate the numbers for people buying dedicated handheld over those buying the hybrids.

Fire Emblem, Xenoblade, and the next 3D Mario could just as easily come out for the Switch next year. Three Houses was 2 1/2 years ago, so we're almost due for a new one. And we're coming up on 4 years for both Odyssey AND Xenoblade 2. Sequels to both of those are due to come out sooner rather than later. It's not like Monolith Soft and EPD Tokyo have been resting on their laurels this entire time waiting for the dev kits.

When has Pokemon EVER released at launch? Even Black/White, which you'd think would be the PERFECT launch title for the 3DS, was still a DS exclusive despite the fact that the 3DS was already out. And GOD KNOWS the 3DS desperately needed a game like that right out of the gate. 

Besides, Fire Emblem, Xenoblade, and Paper Mario are B-C tier titles. They're not the kind of games that are going to sell a system by themselves, which is what you'd be asking them to do. Those are the big guns, the S-A tier titles. (Animal Crossing, 3D Zelda, Splatoon, Smash Bros.) Most of which came out just recently or are about to come out next year and we won't be seeing their next installments after that any time soon. And THOSE are the kind of games the Switch 2 needs to get off the ground. Mario Kart 9 is the biggest one of them all, but that won't be enough. The Switch had 4 of those titles in just the 1st year to go along with the strong B-C tier stuff behind them + a plethora of 3rd parties which is the biggest reason why the Switch took off the way that it did. It wasn't just Breath of the Wild. Breath of the Wild got people to check out the house, all the other stuff like Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Super Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2, backed up by Xenoblade 2, Mario + Rabbids, Sonic Mania, Skyrim, etc. got those people to buy it.

Yes they could, just as easily for Switch 1, Switch 2 or cross-gen. Any of them. But as you say could be ready for 2023 which means they could be used to launch a new system in 2023 if Nintendo chose to. Nintendo can get big games ready for Nov 2023 and throughout 2024 to support a new system launch.

Yes that's why I put (Switch + Switch 2 (BC)), as in backwards compatible so you can play it on either.

I don't really have a lot to say about the rest of your post because I agree with the majority of what you said.