In a few years time you'll either be a prophet and a genius or the one to make one the dumbest predictions ever.

I see a 0.5% chance of your prediction coming true.

It looks like it won't reach 118 million either. The Gameboy is safe at 3rd for now. lol (Switch will pass it).

I can see PS5 losing sifnificant marketshare in NA and Japan like he says, but I definitely can't imagine it falling quite that hard in one generation. 85-90m would be the floor for PS5 in my mind even if that did happen. It's already struggling for relevancy in Japan, so half that prediction is on track.

Then again, there's also a crazy chance if this chip shortage goes on long enough and Xbox/Gamepass gains momentum at just the right time, a chunk of the current unsually high demand for PS5 could shift over to XSX in the interim, and those potential sales we're projecting could end up as lost marketshare because they didn't fulfill the demand in time. Timing is also a key part of business.

Voted 100.0 - 109.9 million.

We're having a similar discussion in two threads so I'll just reply here.

There is no way in hell PS5 sells less than 80 million. Switch doesn't directly compete with it as they're so different and it certainly isn't stopping PS5 selling like crack so far, while Xbox is only offering real competition in America, and even there PS5 is still beating the Series so far.

Between acquisitions, moneyhatting, but mostly just having too strong a base to skip, third party support isn't going anywhere either, while Sony's first party is the strongest it has ever been.

Their marketing is on point too and has already established the system as insanely desirable, to the point where it's sold out all over the planet.

I can potentially see PS5 sales growing immensely year 3 and 4, assuming all the shortages can be mostly over by 2023.

SNY could just remain on 7nm/6nm as Apple and PC moves on to 5nm and 3nm, grabbing up as much freed up production as possible.

SNY may have already locked up more 5nm or 3nm expanded production by now for the future Slim or Pro model.

SNY could delay a Slim model if even bother to make one at all.

SNY could always have launch and Slim hardware inside the existing PS5 shell and most people won't know or care which they have.

SNY could have the existing and Slim model on sale until Slim production could cover all demand, though both models must be priced the same.

SNY could skip Slim altogether and only have a Pro model if there's not enough 5nm or 3nm to go around.

SNY may not bother with Pro at all and just have a 5 year gen.

Lot's of different possible outcomes depending on how long this shortage goes on vs how quickly present and future production can expand.

If Game Pass disrupts the PS5's momentum, especially in regions like Europe, NA & RoTW, you can bet it will eat into Switch sales too. 

I'm predicting 130+ Million LTD.

I think it will be a longer generation, Sony will be more aggressive with price cuts/revisions & COVID in 2020 reintroduced a ton of people who stopped gaming back into video games. PSVR2 is the wild card here especially if Sony has some sort of online functionality in the works (IE. PS Home compatibility with PSVR2).

I think the PS5 will sell around 125M, if not more. Despite a year of sold out stock, i see no evidence that demand is decreasing, or that people are abandoning the console for the Switch or XBX/S, thiugh a bit of that might be happening. The advantage for the PS5 is the large install base on the PS4, most of who will want to eventually upgrade to the PS5. And this is being made more enticing and easier by the PS5 having backwards compatibility so no one has to give up their games to do so. Its in fact one reason i got my PS5 so earlier as normally I wait 2-3 years to get one.

If supplies problems are solved in time, 130-135M, Sony invested heavily on PS5, even sacrificing PS4 production and final years sales to keep its production as high as possible.
Obviously if supplies problems last too long, this will affect lifetime sales, as late sales can only partially make up for too many missed sales in the golden period, eventually potential buyers will start waiting for PS6. Even in this worst case, I guess Sony will do anything financially viable to make PS5 outsell PS4, so let's say 125M to play safe.

130-135M

PS5 is selling faster than PS4 and has more demand. Next FY prediction is 23M which is already bigger than any FY PS4 had. I also think the PS brand is even stronger this gen, XB will lose marketshare and PS will gain it.