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Forums - Sales Discussion - The PlayStation 5 shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

 

The PlayStation 5 shipped 13.4m units by September 30th. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 70 million 46 5.22%
 
70.0 - 79.9 million 26 2.95%
 
80.0 - 89.9 million 57 6.46%
 
90.0 - 99.9 million 90 10.20%
 
100.0 - 109.9 million 160 18.14%
 
110.0 - 119.9 million 158 17.91%
 
120.0 - 129.9 million 201 22.79%
 
130.0 - 139.9 million 49 5.56%
 
140.0 - 150.0 million 29 3.29%
 
More than 150 million 66 7.48%
 
Total:882

I'm predicting 130+ Million LTD.

I think it will be a longer generation, Sony will be more aggressive with price cuts/revisions & COVID in 2020 reintroduced a ton of people who stopped gaming back into video games. PSVR2 is the wild card here especially if Sony has some sort of online functionality in the works (IE. PS Home compatibility with PSVR2).

Last edited by PotentHerbs - on 03 November 2021

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I think the PS5 will sell around 125M, if not more. Despite a year of sold out stock, i see no evidence that demand is decreasing, or that people are abandoning the console for the Switch or XBX/S, thiugh a bit of that might be happening. The advantage for the PS5 is the large install base on the PS4, most of who will want to eventually upgrade to the PS5. And this is being made more enticing and easier by the PS5 having backwards compatibility so no one has to give up their games to do so. Its in fact one reason i got my PS5 so earlier as normally I wait 2-3 years to get one.

Last edited by fauzman - on 04 November 2021

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If supplies problems are solved in time, 130-135M, Sony invested heavily on PS5, even sacrificing PS4 production and final years sales to keep its production as high as possible.
Obviously if supplies problems last too long, this will affect lifetime sales, as late sales can only partially make up for too many missed sales in the golden period, eventually potential buyers will start waiting for PS6. Even in this worst case, I guess Sony will do anything financially viable to make PS5 outsell PS4, so let's say 125M to play safe.



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130-135M

PS5 is selling faster than PS4 and has more demand. Next FY prediction is 23M which is already bigger than any FY PS4 had. I also think the PS brand is even stronger this gen, XB will lose marketshare and PS will gain it.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Dallinor said:

So less than the PS3?

The console that's currently having stock issues and will be over 5 million ahead in the same timeframe?

Give us even ballpark region or yearly figures for that to be possible.  

Yep, less than PS3.  I am very confident saying "less than 80m".  If I have to pick between "less than 70m" or "70-79m", then I'm yet sure which.  I voted "70-79m" though. 

PS5 is going to get Blockbustered.  Blockbuster was the king of video rental and then it got hit by Netflix and Redbox at the same time.  Playstation is going to lose marketshare to both Gamepass and Switch at same time.  It will get Blockbustered.

Regional breakdown will be something like this (optimistically for PS5):
Japan 5m
Row 12m
NA 23m
Europe 35m
Total 75m

Not happening. PS5 is going to sell 50-60 million in Europe alone. People over here just don't care for Xbox no matter what. Always been this way.  Microsofts only realistic chance is NA.



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It's too early to tell but I'd say between 120-130 million is realistic.



TheTony316 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Yep, less than PS3.  I am very confident saying "less than 80m".  If I have to pick between "less than 70m" or "70-79m", then I'm yet sure which.  I voted "70-79m" though. 

PS5 is going to get Blockbustered.  Blockbuster was the king of video rental and then it got hit by Netflix and Redbox at the same time.  Playstation is going to lose marketshare to both Gamepass and Switch at same time.  It will get Blockbustered.

Regional breakdown will be something like this (optimistically for PS5):
Japan 5m
Row 12m
NA 23m
Europe 35m
Total 75m

Not happening. PS5 is going to sell 50-60 million in Europe alone. People over here just don't care for Xbox no matter what. Always been this way.  Microsofts only realistic chance is NA.

The fabled Switch cliff has apparently moved to the PS5.



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Zippy6 said:
TheTony316 said:

Not happening. PS5 is going to sell 50-60 million in Europe alone. People over here just don't care for Xbox no matter what. Always been this way.  Microsofts only realistic chance is NA.

The fabled Switch cliff has apparently moved to the PS5.

Yeah and it's even less likely in this case since the PS5 getting almost every major third party game and various popular exclusives keeping sales strong for several years is guaranteed.



VR is also a wildcard here. VR was too compute limited last gen, but with AR/VR devices to be released in the coming decade there's going to be a notable increase in adoption.

PSVR2 is the only console VR atm and Playstation has a strong VR exclusive lineup.



It will depend on when the next generation starts.

If ps6 is coming in 2027, 130-140million.

If ps6 is coming in 2028, 140-155million.



My prediction in 2021.

SW: 30m

PS5 16m

XBS: 7.5m