By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Sales Discussion - Famitsu sales: Week 40, 2021 - (27th Sept - 3rd Oct)

kenjab on 07 October 2021
Kakadu18 said:
noshten said:

It's actually a very small gap when you consider that Switch it 2020 didn't achieve anywhere near it's potential sales,

Switch 2020 Q4: 2.002.858
Switch 2019 Q4: 1.975.243
Switch 2018 Q4: 1.755.871
Switch 2017 Q4: 1.598.575

With OLED, Pokemon Remakes, Mario Party, SMT V I expect this Quarter for hardware to reach at least 2.2 million could end up a lot higher if Nintendo have been able to maintain production targets of 30 million for the FY. There is also a New Horizon direct that I expect to have an impact. 

Overall 2021 is heading for peak hardware and on Famitsu with just 2.1 million needed to surpass 6 million: 

My Prediction:

Week: Total Sales / OLED Sales

  • Week 41: 230K / 170K
  • Week 42: 170K / 120K
  • Week 43: 150K / 90K
  • Week 44: 150K / 90K
  • Week 45: 150K / 90K
  • Week 46: 100K / 50K
  • Week 47: 100K / 50K
  • Week 48: 100K / 50K
  • Week 49: 250K / 150K
  • Week 50: 250K / 170K
  • Week 51: 300K / 180K
  • Week 52: 250K / 170K

TOTAL: 2300K / 1380K

I'm not really sure which week Pokemon drops but I'm guessing it's 49, basically with-out the OLED I could have easily pictured this year, I expect Nintendo to ship less than 1.5 million OLEDs to Japan. The item to be the hottest video game gift for the holidays leading to high price not only in Japan but also in China, South Korea & Taiwan. If demand is not satisfied in neighboring countries I can foresee a situation where many OLEDs end up overseas similarly to PS5. 

I don't think OG Switch will suddenly become unpopular if you can't get your hands on OLED but want Switch for the holidays, the Lite will drop down to around 15-20% of hardware sales for Nintendo in Japan after OLED launches, I actually think it demand for it will take the biggest hit overall and could end up fewer than 500K sales this Q. With OLED launches it just replaces the demand there was for the OG Switch. I think if Nintendo really wanted to sell the Lite at high numbers in Japan they would need to drop the price of it by at least 30%.

Next year I expect the OLED to phase out the OG in Japan as production scales up to meet demand. 

We will see, but that's what I anticipate will happen. 

Pokémon is on the 19th November, week 46.

41: Week ending Oct 10
42: Week ending Oct 17
43: Week ending Oct 24
44: Week ending Oct 31
45: Week ending Nov 7
46: Week ending Nov 14
47: Week ending Nov 21

So it will come out week 47.



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

Around the Network
Kakadu18 on 07 October 2021
kenjab said:
Kakadu18 said:

Pokémon is on the 19th November, week 46.

41: Week ending Oct 10
42: Week ending Oct 17
43: Week ending Oct 24
44: Week ending Oct 31
45: Week ending Nov 7
46: Week ending Nov 14
47: Week ending Nov 21

So it will come out week 47.

Was going by my calendar, not famitsu's weird way to count it.



The_Liquid_Laser on 07 October 2021

I would assume that Trails in the Dark will get a Switch version sometime next year. Switch has already gotten Trails 3&4. I can't blame them for releasing the PS4 version first either. There are only 3 months left, and the Switch version might have delayed release until after the holidays. So, they just release the PS4 version now, so that it can be available during the holidays. That's how I see it anyway.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Doctor_MG on 07 October 2021
Alex747 said:

Let's compare software sales of both the PS5 and WiiU to get an idea about the PS5 artificial hardware sales.

15 (all) PS5 games across 9 months of sales
-23./17. [PS5] Resident Evil Village # (Capcom) {2021.05.08} (Â¥7.990) - 53.953
-29./00. [PS5] Demon's Souls (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.12} (Â¥7.900) 51.796
-28./00. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales # (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.12} (Â¥5.900) - 43.692
-19./02. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade (Square Enix) {2021.06.10} (Â¥8.980) - 23.491
-17./03. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.06.11} (Â¥7.900) - 17.850
-28./19. [PS5] Judgment (Sega) {2021.04.23} (Â¥1.800) - 14.749
-05./00. [PS5] Ghost of Tsushima: Director's Cut (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.08.20} (Â¥7.900) - 13.745 / NEW
-26./09. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2021.06.24} (Â¥8.200) - 12.785
-23./15. [PS5] Returnal (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.04.30} (Â¥7.900) - 9.148
-19./00. [PS5] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.13} (Â¥8.800) - 6.045 / NEW
-21./00. [PS5] Godfall # (Playism) {2020.11.12} (Â¥7.900) - 5.342 / NEW
-25./00. [PS5] Assassin's Creed: Valhalla # (Ubisoft) {2020.11.12} (Â¥8.400) - 4.227 / NEW
-22./00. [PS5] Guilty Gear: Strive # (Arc System Works) {2021.06.11} (Â¥7.800) - 3.547 / NEW
-19./00. [PS5] Yakuza: Like a Dragon (Sega) {2021.03.02} (Â¥5.990) - 2.861 / NEW
-20./00. [PS5] Outriders (Square Enix) {2021.04.01} (Â¥7.980) - 2.431 / NEW
Total: 265,662

Two of Wii U's games just on launch day
-02./00. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (Â¥5.985) - 163.528 / NEW
-04./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (Â¥4.800) - 106.388 / NEW
Total: 269.916


I'm not sure what you mean about artificial hardware sales, but I also think that digital cannot be discounted. The Wii U as a platform did not have strong digital sales, but the PS4 (and subsequently the PS5) do. That said, even if digital/physical is a 50/50 split, the PS5 is still underperforming. 



Farsala on 07 October 2021

04./00. [PS4] Melty Blood: Type Lumina # (Delight Works) {2021.09.30} (¥6.800) – 18.833 / NEW
06./00. [NSW] Melty Blood: Type Lumina # (Delight Works) {2021.09.30} (¥6.800) – 11.604 / NEW

Pretty sad to see another same day launch fail to surpass the PS4 version, currently a dead console. Maybe quite a few Switches went to China.



Around the Network
Agente42 on 07 October 2021
Doctor_MG said:
Alex747 said:

Let's compare software sales of both the PS5 and WiiU to get an idea about the PS5 artificial hardware sales.

15 (all) PS5 games across 9 months of sales
-23./17. [PS5] Resident Evil Village # (Capcom) {2021.05.08} (Â¥7.990) - 53.953
-29./00. [PS5] Demon's Souls (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.12} (Â¥7.900) 51.796
-28./00. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales # (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.12} (Â¥5.900) - 43.692
-19./02. [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Remake Intergrade (Square Enix) {2021.06.10} (Â¥8.980) - 23.491
-17./03. [PS5] Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.06.11} (Â¥7.900) - 17.850
-28./19. [PS5] Judgment (Sega) {2021.04.23} (Â¥1.800) - 14.749
-05./00. [PS5] Ghost of Tsushima: Director's Cut (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.08.20} (Â¥7.900) - 13.745 / NEW
-26./09. [PS5] Scarlet Nexus (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2021.06.24} (Â¥8.200) - 12.785
-23./15. [PS5] Returnal (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2021.04.30} (Â¥7.900) - 9.148
-19./00. [PS5] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.13} (Â¥8.800) - 6.045 / NEW
-21./00. [PS5] Godfall # (Playism) {2020.11.12} (Â¥7.900) - 5.342 / NEW
-25./00. [PS5] Assassin's Creed: Valhalla # (Ubisoft) {2020.11.12} (Â¥8.400) - 4.227 / NEW
-22./00. [PS5] Guilty Gear: Strive # (Arc System Works) {2021.06.11} (Â¥7.800) - 3.547 / NEW
-19./00. [PS5] Yakuza: Like a Dragon (Sega) {2021.03.02} (Â¥5.990) - 2.861 / NEW
-20./00. [PS5] Outriders (Square Enix) {2021.04.01} (Â¥7.980) - 2.431 / NEW
Total: 265,662

Two of Wii U's games just on launch day
-02./00. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} (Â¥5.985) - 163.528 / NEW
-04./00. [WIU] Monster Hunter 3 Ultimate # (Capcom) {2012.12.08} (Â¥4.800) - 106.388 / NEW
Total: 269.916


I'm not sure what you mean about artificial hardware sales, but I also think that digital cannot be discounted. The Wii U as a platform did not have strong digital sales, but the PS4 (and subsequently the PS5) do. That said, even if digital/physical is a 50/50 split, the PS5 is still underperforming. 

Japan has a 50/50 split where?



The_Liquid_Laser on 07 October 2021
Farsala said:

04./00. [PS4] Melty Blood: Type Lumina # (Delight Works) {2021.09.30} (¥6.800) – 18.833 / NEW
06./00. [NSW] Melty Blood: Type Lumina # (Delight Works) {2021.09.30} (¥6.800) – 11.604 / NEW

Pretty sad to see another same day launch fail to surpass the PS4 version, currently a dead console. Maybe quite a few Switches went to China.

Kinda doesn't matter, because the Switch games always have better legs.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Farsala on 07 October 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Farsala said:

04./00. [PS4] Melty Blood: Type Lumina # (Delight Works) {2021.09.30} (¥6.800) – 18.833 / NEW
06./00. [NSW] Melty Blood: Type Lumina # (Delight Works) {2021.09.30} (¥6.800) – 11.604 / NEW

Pretty sad to see another same day launch fail to surpass the PS4 version, currently a dead console. Maybe quite a few Switches went to China.

Kinda doesn't matter, because the Switch games always have better legs.

I certainly hope so as the Switch is now closing in on a 2.5x install base lead, a lead that will only grow as the PS4 has been replaced by the PS5.



TheBraveGallade on 07 October 2021
noshten said:

As expected the franchise is going to struggle to reach 75K this year, so over 25% decline YoY since they launched  Hajimari no Kiseki last year which debuted with 83K and managed over 104K lifetime sales. I don't think Kuro no Kiseki will be above 10K next week as the second weeks of Falcom games are usually over 80% drops. 

imagine being a domestic focused dev that still only realeses on PS at this point.

like come on, it doesn't even make finantial sense!

go steam, or switch, hell even mobile, or try to capture the western fanbase. even going for the latter there is almost no reason for a less then triple A dev(who can actually leverage the power difference) to go PS only...



curl-6 on 07 October 2021

The calm before the OLED storm.
PS5 less than half last week, Xbox Series significantly up. Guess some new supply arrived for the latter but not the former.
PS4 is a zombie at this point and all but spent in terms of hardware sales, but the 9 million or so Japanese gamers who have one seem quite content to keep playing it for now.