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Forums - Sales - Global Hardware August 8-14 - PS5 and Switch Sales Rise

yo33331 said:
zorg1000 said:

It's impressive to be a member for 10 years without posting then randomly deciding to become a troll.

So first of all, when I started posting to the forum it was the year 2018, just because you see me now, doesn't mean I am posting from this year.

So I've started posting since my 7th year here not 10 ..

Second, I have not been posting prior to that, because I only visited the site to follow the sales trends, and the comparison charts and articles, read them, and close the website. Just didn't feel the need to comment or write whatever. Now I have more time and more desire to write and to read other's comments and thoughts.

Third, just because I think the Switch time has come to go down from the king's chair does not mean I am a troll.

If I was a troll I wouldn't give good sales predictions for PS4, but I gave. Two years ago, back when most of the people were thinking PS4 would reach 130 or even 140M. It's Sony's fault this didn't happen but this is other topic..

So giving my honest opinions, predictions and thoughts doesn't make me a troll.

Just because I don't give the Switch more than 130M lifetime (as the sales are now in this moment in it's lifecycle) doesn't mean I am trolling.

If I wanted to troll I could give it 110M lifetime for example. Or give it 10M for next year. But this is not my prediction.

Also If I was a troll I could go and speak wrong things about all the other consoles as well. But I am not doing this.

So just because I am not giving the insane numbers decent percent of the people here are giving for the Switch and likely you too (150-170M) don't make me a troll.

But otherwise.. I am happy that you are impressed :) I will continue to impress!

Your post history says otherwise, first post was Jan 2020, but regardless you're not a troll for going a long time without posting or because you think Switch will sell under 130 million.

You are a troll because of the constant mentioning of the fabled "cliff" in the recent weeks/months.

You are a troll for comparing a potential modest decline in year 5 as a similar situation to Wii.

You are a troll because claims like this are not based in reality.

You are a troll because when people present data that disputes your claims, you ignore them.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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yo33331 said:
zorg1000 said:

Your post history says otherwise, first post was Jan 2020, but regardless you're not a troll for going a long time without posting or because you think Switch will sell under 130 million.

You are a troll because of the constant mentioning of the fabled "cliff" in the recent weeks/months.

You are a troll for comparing a potential modest decline in year 5 as a similar situation to Wii.

You are a troll because claims like this are not based in reality.

You are a troll because when people present data that disputes your claims, you ignore them.

Well okay, maybe I've made mistake because I started to follow some threads on the forum in 2018 .. whatever.. again you are wrong. That's not 10 years. That's 9 years .. even 8 and a half.

No I am not mentioning the cliff in the recent weeks. Most of the cases are just answers to someone and most of them are not including the word "cliff" just the effect of a cliff. Also most of the discussions about this was a thread for the last week of june sales, where many people argued therefore I had to write many answers about that in that thread. In other articles or threads I've been just quoting or saying my predictions. Which is not wrong.

You can't call me troll because of a year 5 comparisons with other consoles or stating that it can go the way other consoles have gone .. This is my opinion and point. It is different from yours. This is not making me a troll. Everything is possible in this life for everything and everyone. It can go in many ways from here on. I just picked the one possible way for the things to happen

Reality is subjective for every different person. Everyone have different reality in his life. Everyone sees the things differently. Deal with it. For me the reality now is a decent decline for the system in the future. For you is not. Cool. I don't have problem with your different opinion/statement/prediciton - you have.

I have the full right to ignore whoever I want and everyone also has this right as well. No one is obliged to anyone. However on a predictions and opinions you have no data to present because every person thinks differently. If you are referring to the Switch handheld/home use/buy ratio then there is no real official data coming from Nintendo from this. Therefore you can't say that I have ignore some data. Other cases with data being proved I don't remember. As I said other than this all have been personal opinions of me or other people.

Also It's not only me who is on this page for the Switch. I've seen a few more people too recently. You aren't saying anything for them. Why ? Also there are some threads with polls and there the percent that are giving not so good numbers for Switch going ahead is not small. So you call everyone from these people a troll ?

Or wait only me because I express my opinion on my prediction, But because most of them haven't yet expressed their predictions on the matter they are not trolls ? So everyone has the right to vote. But if you express your prediction and it's different from some other person you are a troll ?

Not a cliff, just the effect of a cliff. If that is a concept that makes sense to you than I'm not sure any rational discussion can be had.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Cliffs don't just happen, there has to be a powerful cause, and there is no such cause with the Switch.

It has a new model coming up and room for further revisions in the future, its software schedule is strong and shows no sign of drying up, its trajectory shows robust legs.



yo33331 said:

You've given good reasons. And good explanations. That's why I agreed with your post.
I've already explained my stance and reasons on the matter before. I can just add also that for different reasons all consoles have either started to fall of quickly after their year 4th/5th or (if cliff haven't been presented) just haven't done so good numbers per year(after the 4th/5th year).
We will see soon enough.. starting january. It's just right around the corner .. some 4 months more ..

If for some reason I am wrong about all this, I will come out as a man, and say it. I am not afraid of fail. However till the moment hits I am staying on my position.

Also to remind that the condition of my prediction(that I wrote when I originally first made that prediction in the thread from june) have to be fulfilled and this is for the both of the new systems to be in full stock. If they are not for the most of the next year then Switch decline may not go down to 15M. Because for me, one of the driving force for possible decline for the Switch is the full availability for the new systems and giving more choices to the customers than this and last year.

What exactly is going to happen in January that will cause a significant decline?

This is what I'm talking about, opinions/predictions have to be based on something to be taken seriously, otherwise it's just random nonsense.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

yo33331 said:
zorg1000 said:

What exactly is going to happen in January that will cause a significant decline?

This is what I'm talking about, opinions/predictions have to be based on something to be taken seriously, otherwise it's just random nonsense.

Starting next year I am expecting Switch weekly sales to begin to decline. If of course the stock is full of the next gen consoles.

And further in the year Switch numbers to gradually decline month on month, making around 15M for the year. And the numbers for both of the new consoles to rise with that. What will happen will be the result of my prediction coming true or not true. Well the result will not be clear in January, however this is the point I am expecting from which on Switch will begin gradually decline and the problem with the stock for the new console to mostly be fixed, being shipped way more than now. If you want more and detailed explanations, I have already done many of them in that june thread that I mentioned. I am not writing everything again here.

What you are describing here is a natural sales curve, not a cliff. NSW going down in its 6th year is expected. PS5/XBS going up in their 2nd year is expected.

PS5/XBS are entirely irrelevant to NSW sales and vice versa. NSW launched with great sales during the PS4/XBO peak. PS5/XBS launched to great sales in the NSW peak. They do not impact each other.

Once you erase PS5/XBS from your analysis than you will come to a more realistic prediction for NSW.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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eva01beserk said:
Elputoxd said:

On this forum, there is always a cliff for all consoles that are not PlayStation. It's an obsession some users have. I'm still waiting for the Series X/S cliff people talked about earlier in the year...

In the real world outside of people's imagination, Series is tracking to sell 10-11 million consoles and going to beat Xbox 360's 2009 out of the gate but here, the cliff is always around the corner.

Also Switch is going to sell more than 15M next year.

Xbox 1 also beat the 360 aligned at the begining. Guess what happen next? 

Xbox One was already selling much less than Xbox 360 at this point week on week. Good try, though. Series is selling much more than the 360. There is no cliff to be seen for the next 2 years. It's going to sell more in 2022 and 2023 simply because of the increase in supply. 

Even if Series started selling less than the 360 in 2024 (highly, highly doubtful), the difference would have to be very big for the 360 to keep up. Series is going to sell 10-11 million this year, the 360 didn't reach those sales until it had been three years on the market, in 2022 Series could sell 14 or 15 million (which the 360 never reached).

Last edited by Elputoxd - on 28 August 2021

yo33331 said:
zorg1000 said:

What exactly is going to happen in January that will cause a significant decline?

This is what I'm talking about, opinions/predictions have to be based on something to be taken seriously, otherwise it's just random nonsense.

Starting next year I am expecting Switch weekly sales to begin to decline. If of course the stock is full of the next gen consoles.

And further in the year Switch numbers to gradually decline month on month, making around 15M for the year. And the numbers for both of the new consoles to rise with that. What will happen will be the result of my prediction coming true or not true. Well the result will not be clear in January, however this is the point I am expecting from which on Switch will begin gradually decline and the problem with the stock for the new console to mostly be fixed, being shipped way more than now. If you want more and detailed explanations, I have already done many of them in that june thread that I mentioned. I am not writing everything again here.

Do you think the PS/Xbox and Switch have a significant impact on eachother's sales? Thus far there hasn't been anything indicating that.



Elputoxd said:
eva01beserk said:

Xbox 1 also beat the 360 aligned at the begining. Guess what happen next? 

Xbox One was already selling much less than Xbox 360 at this point week on week. Good try, though. Series is selling much more than the 360. There is no cliff to be seen for the next 2 years. It's going to sell more in 2022 and 2023 simply because of the increase in supply. 

Even if Series started selling less than the 360 in 2024 (highly, highly doubtful), the difference would have to be very big for the 360 to keep up. Series is going to sell 10-11 million this year, the 360 didn't reach those sales until it had been three years on the market, in 2022 Series could sell 14 or 15 million (which the 360 never reached).

Comong man we are on a sales website. What would that kind of lie get you anyways? It took 3 years for the 360 to pass the x1. And people like to forget that the 360 was never a great seller. It was just on the market for the longest any console has ever been.

The problem with the x1 is that it sold its highest the very first year. After that it was decline every year. And while the series dosent indicate any sort of decline like the x1 did it still premature to be calling increases. Especially with ms focusing all marketing on gamepass and not the Xbox. Also the complete lack of games that has plagued the xbox for over a decade. We still dont know if the wait is to long next year and we see the same kind of decline the x1 did.



It takes genuine talent to see greatness in yourself despite your absence of genuine talent.

eva01beserk said:
Elputoxd said:

Xbox One was already selling much less than Xbox 360 at this point week on week. Good try, though. Series is selling much more than the 360. There is no cliff to be seen for the next 2 years. It's going to sell more in 2022 and 2023 simply because of the increase in supply. 

Even if Series started selling less than the 360 in 2024 (highly, highly doubtful), the difference would have to be very big for the 360 to keep up. Series is going to sell 10-11 million this year, the 360 didn't reach those sales until it had been three years on the market, in 2022 Series could sell 14 or 15 million (which the 360 never reached).

Comong man we are on a sales website. What would that kind of lie get you anyways? It took 3 years for the 360 to pass the x1. And people like to forget that the 360 was never a great seller. It was just on the market for the longest any console has ever been.

The problem with the x1 is that it sold its highest the very first year. After that it was decline every year. And while the series dosent indicate any sort of decline like the x1 did it still premature to be calling increases. Especially with ms focusing all marketing on gamepass and not the Xbox. Also the complete lack of games that has plagued the xbox for over a decade. We still dont know if the wait is to long next year and we see the same kind of decline the x1 did.

I said Xbox One was already selling less week on week than the 360 at this point and you can chek it out. It's not my problem if you don't know how to read:

Week ending August 19, 2006 (Xbox 360): 73k

Week ending August 23, 2014 (Xbox One): 54k (LESS THAN THE 360 WEEK ON WEEK)

Week ending August 14, 2021 (Xbox Series X/S): 123K

Then X1 had a very low advantage over the 360 for around a year and a half because of the price cut and then it started selling less than te 360 again. There is no reason to think Series is going to start selling less week on week than the 360 until at least 2024.

Edit: for the record, this is my current prediction:


Xbox 360 vs Xbox Series X/S

Year 1: 1.1M vs 3M
Year 2: 6.8M vs 10.5M
Year 3: 7.9M vs 12.5M
Year 4: 11.16M vs 13M
Year 5: 10.36M vs 12.5M
Year 6: 13.5M vs 10.5M
Year 7: 13.9M vs 9M
Year 8: 10.6M vs 8M
Year 9: 6.2M vs 5M
Year 10: 2.5M vs 3.2M
Year 11: 988k vs 1.4M

I expect Series to sell a bit more than the 360 (88M)



zorg1000 said:
peachbuggy said:

Interesting, i just thought it was a CliffyRick alt. Oh well, at least we have someone else to keep us entertained until the inevitable ban hammer falls.

That's what I thought too until I saw the join date. Perhaps Rick somehow hijacked another members account.

Not outside the realm of possibilities



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