They always sell out what's shipped, that's on Microsoft.

Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30.

I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report...

Bold: that's already enough to know what you mean. No real number or proof, all are meaningless.

You are assuming manufacturing capability is constant, which is unlikely (though I agree I think it's likely higher now than it was previous quarter)

However the main problem is you are assuming manufacturing & shipping are directly linked... a console made Jan 1st won't necessarily be on store shelves exactly 6 weeks later (or whatever the average shipping time is)

There are still big shipping problems at the moment due to the pandemic but these problems peaked for tech in late December/early Jan, which may have meant more of the 3.3m consoles shipped were manufactured further back in time (they just didn't get to stores until much later than usual) Also very common thing for a company to do is to ship out as much as possible in fiscal Q4 as it's the end of the year & they want to meet targets & look good, then Q1 they relax a bit..... PS4 was also hard to find for first half of 2014 (though not as bad as PS5) but Sony still shipped less in Q1 than they did in Q4.

I'm not saying the PS5 won't need adjustments, maybe it is undertracked, but you are taking a single figure (3.3m shipped in Q4) and assuming it's a given they will ship the same or more in the next quarter.

The irony is that this very site is just one big assumption as well with no "real" number or proof unless taken from official sources, hence the constant adjustments month after month, quarter after quarter when real or more reliable data comes in. 

Based on all the adjustments in the last quarter, drkohler's estimate is entirely possible and is in no way better or worse than VGChartz estimates. There have been times when they even made adjustments in the multimillions. Either way, we will all find out in about a months time when Sony announces their quarterly numbers. 

A fiscal report reports how many gadgets were made in the period it applies to. It is completely irrelevant if any other gadgets are still around or where the gadgets are heading in what way. The number given is 3.3 mio units. Any speculation of a production increase (or less likely decrease) is just that, a speculation. Although such a change would likely have been newsworthy and I haven't seen anything (except the 14.2mio units Sony wants to ship this fj so at some point they have to ramp up manufacturing).

How Sony is shipping at this time is another wide open field for speculation. I do not think it has been "business as usual" as in previous generations, as stock is sold out everywhere. I could imagine that some % of stock is flown in where stock has been too low for a too long period. The problem is if there is no stock for too long a time, people might get pissed first, then disinterested. That is something Sony/MS certainly would want to avoid.

Anyone remember all that talk about a cliff?

Looks like PS5 is soon to run into a cliff.

The fiscal report is about money, the 3.3 million is the figure Sony counts as sold, manufacturing capability is an internal matter that they don't (and don't have to) report, though sometimes companies choose to release certain figures or extra information for general information, similar to press releases.

Shipping issues & the extra high level of demand are indeed not business as usual, but the fiscal year still ends at the same time, & it's trying to get higher figures for that end-of-year report still applies. There may have been airfrieght but it's a fantastically expensive solution, consoles are not food, they don't spoil so if it's shipped late you can still sell it. As you say it's speculation but IMO Sony wouldn't resort to airfreight except in extreme situations like the Evergiven situation, and even then it wouldn't amount to a large portion of units sold.

At the moment it's a wait & see till Sony's release anyway... personally I suspect the shipment figure will be similar to the previous quarter give or take 300k. Whether that means adjustments are neccessary I don't know, just remember this is still the early phase of PS5 life, even with it being hard to find the shipments are likely to exceed sales as it slowly becomes available for sale in more countries/regions & even stores. (given how hard it is to find though a stock level of 1m+ seems unlikely)

Mostly likely there will also be a press release to wait for when Sony estimates 10 million sales.... They do their own estimates of sales to consumers & usually make a press release at those kind of milestones. For PS4 this was Aug 13th 2014, about 6-7 weeks after they had shipped 10 million btw.

No, the 3.3M number is the units manufactured. A qr/fj report is a lot more complex than you think. Sony has always reported manufactured consoles, though of course nobody forced them to reveal that unique number, MS hasn't for years now. Aa fj report essentially contains the value of everything down to the last screw manufactured). Sony simply reports this number for bragging against competition. 3.3M consoles were manufactured in the Jan to Mar quarter, end of story. How this number transfers into value in the report is impossible to tell. Certainly the manufacturing costs go into the - part of the report. Sold numbers go into the + part, unsold numbers probably are in the inventory part of the report (at what value is anyone's guess).