drkohler said:
Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30. I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report... |
You are assuming manufacturing capability is constant, which is unlikely (though I agree I think it's likely higher now than it was previous quarter)
However the main problem is you are assuming manufacturing & shipping are directly linked... a console made Jan 1st won't necessarily be on store shelves exactly 6 weeks later (or whatever the average shipping time is)
There are still big shipping problems at the moment due to the pandemic but these problems peaked for tech in late December/early Jan, which may have meant more of the 3.3m consoles shipped were manufactured further back in time (they just didn't get to stores until much later than usual) Also very common thing for a company to do is to ship out as much as possible in fiscal Q4 as it's the end of the year & they want to meet targets & look good, then Q1 they relax a bit..... PS4 was also hard to find for first half of 2014 (though not as bad as PS5) but Sony still shipped less in Q1 than they did in Q4.
I'm not saying the PS5 won't need adjustments, maybe it is undertracked, but you are taking a single figure (3.3m shipped in Q4) and assuming it's a given they will ship the same or more in the next quarter.
