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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 13-19 - Switch Outsells PS3 - Switch Sells 375K, PS5 Sells 203K, XS Sells 140K

Kyuu said:
drkohler said:

Adjustments will be interesting..

Per June 30, Sony manufactured roughly 11.1M consoles (all of which were sold-in). If vgchartz keeps insisting on a weekly 200k sales, that would result in roughly 9.7M sold through by June 30. A gap of 1.4M or a full 7 "vgchartz weeks" in transit? Somehow I doubt it..

May I ask where you got the 11.1 million shipment figure from? This would extend PS5's lead over PS4 by 600k (2.7 million PS4's vs 3.3 million PS5's as of the end of their 3rd quarter).

Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30.

I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report...



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PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch Sales Comparison Charts Through June 19

Here we see data representing the global sales through to consumers and change in sales performance of the three current platforms (PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch) and three legacy platforms (PlayStation 4, Xbox One, and Nintendo 3DS) over comparable periods for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021.  Also shown is the market share for each of the consoles over the same periods.

Year to Date Sales Comparison (Same Periods Covered)

Market Share (Same Periods Covered)

2018 – (Week ending January 13 to June 23)

2019 – (Week ending January 12 to June 22)

2020 – (Week ending January 11 to June 20)

2021 – (Week ending January 9 to June 19)

"Year to date" sales for 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 sales are shown in series at the top of the table and then just below a comparison of 2021 versus 2020 and 2021 versus 2019 is displayed.  This provides an easy-to-view summary of all the data.

Total Sales and Market Share for Each Year

Microsoft

  • Xbox One – Down Year-on-Year 1,400.639 (-76.2%)
  • Xbox Series X|S – n/a

Nintendo

  • Nintendo Switch - Up Year-on-Year 219,869 (2.2%)
  • Nintendo 3DS – Down Year-on-Year 253,466 (-90.4%)

Sony

  • PlayStation 4 – Down Year-on-Year 3,824,036 (-77.8%)
  • PlayStation 5 – n/a


VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

drkohler said:
Kyuu said:

May I ask where you got the 11.1 million shipment figure from? This would extend PS5's lead over PS4 by 600k (2.7 million PS4's vs 3.3 million PS5's as of the end of their 3rd quarter).

Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30.

I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report...

Bold: that's already enough to know what you mean. No real number or proof, all are meaningless.



drkohler said:
Kyuu said:

May I ask where you got the 11.1 million shipment figure from? This would extend PS5's lead over PS4 by 600k (2.7 million PS4's vs 3.3 million PS5's as of the end of their 3rd quarter).

Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30.

I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report...

You are assuming manufacturing capability is constant, which is unlikely (though I agree I think it's likely higher now than it was previous quarter)

However the main problem is you are assuming manufacturing & shipping are directly linked... a console made Jan 1st won't necessarily be on store shelves exactly 6 weeks later (or whatever the average shipping time is)

There are still big shipping problems at the moment due to the pandemic but these problems peaked for tech in late December/early Jan, which may have meant more of the 3.3m consoles shipped were manufactured further back in time (they just didn't get to stores until much later than usual) Also very common thing for a company to do is to ship out as much as possible in fiscal Q4 as it's the end of the year & they want to meet targets & look good, then Q1 they relax a bit..... PS4 was also hard to find for first half of 2014 (though not as bad as PS5) but Sony still shipped less in Q1 than they did in Q4.

I'm not saying the PS5 won't need adjustments, maybe it is undertracked, but you are taking a single figure (3.3m shipped in Q4) and assuming it's a given they will ship the same or more in the next quarter.



HoangNhatAnh said:
drkohler said:

Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30.

I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report...

Bold: that's already enough to know what you mean. No real number or proof, all are meaningless.

The irony is that this very site is just one big assumption as well with no "real" number or proof unless taken from official sources, hence the constant adjustments month after month, quarter after quarter when real or more reliable data comes in. 

Based on all the adjustments in the last quarter, drkohler's estimate is entirely possible and is in no way better or worse than VGChartz estimates. There have been times when they even made adjustments in the multimillions. Either way, we will all find out in about a months time when Sony announces their quarterly numbers. 



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drkohler said:
Kyuu said:

May I ask where you got the 11.1 million shipment figure from? This would extend PS5's lead over PS4 by 600k (2.7 million PS4's vs 3.3 million PS5's as of the end of their 3rd quarter).

Last fiscal year report Jan-Mar showed 4.5M to 7.8M units manufactured, 3.3M per that quarter. If we assume manufacturing has't decreased and not yet increased, we get another 3.3M units, so 11.1M by June 30.

I saw a stealth adjustment on the front page. it was 9.19M + 200k = 9.34M now, so a downward stealth edit of 50k. I'd guess somehow you are insisting on the wrong direction (unless the Sony fj report was "stacked" which I find unlikely). Can't wait to see the next quarterly report...

Oh so it's an educated guess then; not that I necessarily disagree with your estimates.

PS4's shipments in its 3rd quarter were down 300k (3M vs 2.7M quarter on quarter) so there's no guarantee we won't see a similar trajectory with PS5. Though it is less likely with the high demand, strong lineup, and Chinese launch taken into account.



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PS5 vs Xbox Series X|S vs Switch Launch Sales Comparison Through Week 32

This weekly mini-series compares the aligned launch sales of the PlayStation 5, Xbox Series X|S, and Nintendo Switch. 

It should be noted the Nintendo Switch and Xbox Series X|S had a worldwide launch, while the PlayStation 5 launch was split over the course of two weeks. Also, the Nintendo Switch launched in March 2017, while the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S launched during the holidays in November 2020.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Global:

  1. PS5: 9,336,682
  2. Switch: 6,483,106
  3. XSX|S: 5,556,055

Through the first 32 weeks available worldwide the PlayStation 5 is ahead of the Switch and Xbox Series X|S by a fair margin. The PS5 is ahead of the Switch by 2.85 million units and is 3.78 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 0.93 million units.

The PS5 has sold 9.34 million in 32 weeks worldwide, while the Switch sold 6.48 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 5.56 million units. 

Looking at the marketshare through 32 weeks, the PlayStation 5 currently leads. The PS5 has a 43.7 percent marketshare, the Switch sits at 30.3 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 26.0 percent.

The Switch didn't reach current PS5 sales until week 40.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch US:

  1. PS5: 3,572,154
  2. XSX|S: 2,758,375
  3. Switch: 2,380,435

Through the first 32 weeks available in the US the PlayStation 5 is ahead of the Switch and Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 0.81 million units and is 1.19 million units ahead of the Switch. The Xbox Series X|S is ahead of the Switch by 0.38 million units.

The PS5 has sold 3.57 million in 32 weeks in the US, while the Xbox Series X|S sold 2.76 million units and the Switch 2.38 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 32 weeks, the PlayStation 5 currently leads. The PS5 has a 41.0 percent marketshare, the Xbox Series X|S sits at 31.7 percent, and the Switch at 27.3 percent.

The Switch didn't reach current PS5 sales until week 40 and current Xbox Series X|S sales until week 37.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Europe (31 weeks):

  1. PS5: 3,315,846
  2. Switch: 1,751,211
  3. XSX|S: 1,613,066

The PlayStation 5 has been available for one week less than the Xbox Series X|S in Europe. After 31 weeks the PS5 is ahead of the Switch by 1.56 million units and is 1.70 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The Switch is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 138,145.

The PS5 has sold 3.32 million in 31 weeks in Europe, while the Switch sold 1.75 million units and the Xbox Series X|S 1.61 million units. 

Looking at the marketshare through 31 weeks, the PlayStation 5 currently leads. The PS5 has a 49.6 percent marketshare, the Switch sits at 26.2 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 24.2 percent.

The Switch didn't reach current PS5 sales until week 44.

PS5 Vs. Xbox Series X|S Vs. Switch Japan:

  1. Switch: 1,826,226
  2. PS5: 838,621
  3. XSX|S: 53,912

Through the first 32 weeks available in Japan the Switch is ahead of the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S by a wide margin. The Switch is ahead of the PS5 by 0.99 million units and is 1.77 million units ahead of the Xbox Series X|S. The PS5 is ahead of the Xbox Series X|S by 0.78 million units.

The Switch has sold 1.83 million units in 32 weeks in Japan, while the PS5 has sold 0.84 million units, and the Xbox Series X|S 0.05 million units.

Looking at the marketshare through 32 weeks, the Switch currently leads. The Switch has a 67.2 percent marketshare, the PS5 sits at 30.8 percent, and the Xbox Series X|S at 2.0 percent.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YoutubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Gap Charts | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

HigHurtenflurst said:

You are assuming manufacturing capability is constant, which is unlikely (though I agree I think it's likely higher now than it was previous quarter)

However the main problem is you are assuming manufacturing & shipping are directly linked... a console made Jan 1st won't necessarily be on store shelves exactly 6 weeks later (or whatever the average shipping time is)

A fiscal report reports how many gadgets were made in the period it applies to. It is completely irrelevant if any other gadgets are still around or where the gadgets are heading in what way. The number given is 3.3 mio units. Any speculation of a production increase (or less likely decrease) is just that, a speculation. Although such a change would likely have been newsworthy and I haven't seen anything (except the 14.2mio units Sony wants to ship this fj so at some point they have to ramp up manufacturing).

How Sony is shipping at this time is another wide open field for speculation. I do not think it has been "business as usual" as in previous generations, as stock is sold out everywhere. I could imagine that some % of stock is flown in where stock has been too low for a too long period. The problem is if there is no stock for too long a time, people might get pissed first, then disinterested. That is something Sony/MS certainly would want to avoid.



Anyone remember all that talk about a cliff?

trunkswd said:

Looks like PS5 is soon to run into a cliff.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

drkohler said:
HigHurtenflurst said:

You are assuming manufacturing capability is constant, which is unlikely (though I agree I think it's likely higher now than it was previous quarter)

However the main problem is you are assuming manufacturing & shipping are directly linked... a console made Jan 1st won't necessarily be on store shelves exactly 6 weeks later (or whatever the average shipping time is)

A fiscal report reports how many gadgets were made in the period it applies to. It is completely irrelevant if any other gadgets are still around or where the gadgets are heading in what way. The number given is 3.3 mio units. Any speculation of a production increase (or less likely decrease) is just that, a speculation. Although such a change would likely have been newsworthy and I haven't seen anything (except the 14.2mio units Sony wants to ship this fj so at some point they have to ramp up manufacturing).

How Sony is shipping at this time is another wide open field for speculation. I do not think it has been "business as usual" as in previous generations, as stock is sold out everywhere. I could imagine that some % of stock is flown in where stock has been too low for a too long period. The problem is if there is no stock for too long a time, people might get pissed first, then disinterested. That is something Sony/MS certainly would want to avoid.

The fiscal report is about money, the 3.3 million is the figure Sony counts as sold, manufacturing capability is an internal matter that they don't (and don't have to) report, though sometimes companies choose to release certain figures or extra information for general information, similar to press releases.

Shipping issues & the extra high level of demand are indeed not business as usual, but the fiscal year still ends at the same time, & it's trying to get higher figures for that end-of-year report still applies. There may have been airfrieght but it's a fantastically expensive solution, consoles are not food, they don't spoil so if it's shipped late you can still sell it. As you say it's speculation but IMO Sony wouldn't resort to airfreight except in extreme situations like the Evergiven situation, and even then it wouldn't amount to a large portion of units sold.

At the moment it's a wait & see till Sony's release anyway... personally I suspect the shipment figure will be similar to the previous quarter give or take 300k. Whether that means adjustments are neccessary I don't know, just remember this is still the early phase of PS5 life, even with it being hard to find the shipments are likely to exceed sales as it slowly becomes available for sale in more countries/regions & even stores. (given how hard it is to find though a stock level of 1m+ seems unlikely)

Mostly likely there will also be a press release to wait for when Sony estimates 10 million sales.... They do their own estimates of sales to consumers & usually make a press release at those kind of milestones. For PS4 this was Aug 13th 2014, about 6-7 weeks after they had shipped 10 million btw.