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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - 4k Switch just the beginning - 45 million units sold next FY

Pemalite said:
Mandalore76 said:

I haven't moved any goal posts.  My original statement has never deviated from "dedicated gaming device".  It's in my very first post, and has remained in every post since.  Quote me one where I didn't say it.  I'll wait. 

"No one wants a dedicated gaming device that can make phone calls".

It's literally every Android/iOS gamer ever.

Mandalore76 said:

When the Switch launched, there were tons of people who said that it would not succeed because it was missing streaming features like Netflix, HBO Go, Amazon Prime Video, etc, or even a web browser.  85 million units sold later, it still has none of those features that you can use on your phone, and Nintendo still has a hard time keeping up with demand.  Why?  Because people buy a dedicated gaming device for exactly what it does.  I use the radio in my car every single time I get in the car.  Is the car radio the reason I bought the car?  Does the sale of the car get tallied as a sale of the model/manufacturer, or the sale of a radio?  If my perspective is so wrong, I'm wondering why we aren't tracking iPhone and Android sales on the main page of this video game sales tracking site as dwarfing the sales of the Switch, PS5, and XBox Series as video game devices.

The Switch is a device that will only end up in hundreds of millions of users hands, not billions.
Completely different scales we are talking here.

The second part of this paragraph deals with anecdotals and we know how unviable that is for any kind of evidence to support something, right?

It's anecdotal that we don't track mobile phone sales as video game system sales on a video game sale tracking website, when the entire basis of your argument is that mobile phones are "dedicated gaming devices"?  I consider it extremely relevant to the discussion.

Mandalore76 said:

By the way, every single mobile game screenshot was from the list of Top 10 Highest Grossing Mobile games of all time.  If you don't like that Candy Crush, Monster Strike, Clash of Clans type games have clearly been the highest earners from mobile gamers, that's not my problem.  Yes, the people who have a cell phone regardless for calling and texting are spending ridiculous amounts of cash on gacha games, battle royales, and the like.  I'm fairly certain that's not the reason they bought a phone.  Just as I am fairly certain no one will buy a dedicated gaming device because "oohh, this one can make phone calls".  

I'll also point out that the 3G model of the Vita was the first model to be discontinued, in less than 2 years no less.  

You are right, they are big sellers, but you still skipped a few high profile releases to make the mobile platform seem significant, thankfully I corrected this for you in my prior post. You are welcome.

The Vita isn't an example of anything, overall it was a failed platform, which likely was still profitable, but didn't set the world on fire.

Everytime a company has so far tried to tie a mobile data plan to a "dedicated gaming device", that device has failed.  But any reference to those very specific failures gets handwaved away.  "Oh, you shouldn't even mention every example of a dedicated gaming device that attempted to incorporate mobile data plans as failures to incorporate mobile data plans into dedicated gaming devices because those devices were failures.  So they don't count."

RolStoppable said:

You complain about shifting the goalposts, yet it's the only thing you can do to construct a counter-argument. You turn "dedicated gaming device" into "device that can make phone calls being used for gaming", but nobody here should have to explain it to you in detail that these are two very different things.

The argument was that no one wants a dedicated gaming device that can make phone calls.
Clearly with Billions of gamers on a platform that plays games extremely well... And can conveniently make phone calls... Renders that accusation false.

RolStoppable said:

You didn't demolish his argument because your entire post is based on building a strawman. Yes, you did demolish this strawman, but that will only look good in the eyes of those observers who can't tell what has happened here.

False.

RolStoppable said:

Mandalore76's expansion of the argument that consoles and phones are two completely different markets is correct as well. That too is owed to the significant difference between a dedicated gaming device and a phone that is being used for gaming. People who buy a dedicated gaming device know exactly that they want to play games and as such are willing to pay upfront for games, whereas people who buy phones don't have gaming as a priority and as such are not willing to pay for games upfront. That is why phones couldn't kill handheld consoles, because the fundamentally necessary different payment models to make game development viable result in very different feels for the games themselves. Consequently, mobile gaming isn't being taken seriously on gaming forums, because it fails to provide reasons why it should be taken seriously. Mobile gaming is generating big bucks since over a decade, but not at any point did it manage to lead to a community on this website for the purpose of discussing mobile games despite being assigned with a dedicated subforum for an extended period of time.

Plenty of mobile games pay games up front.

In saying that... We are shifting to an era where even on console we aren't paying for games up front. I.E. Gamepass, xCloud, PS+ and more.


You continue to gloss over the fact that I have stated "Dedicated Gaming Device" in every single one of my posts.  Worse yet, you seem to think that Android and iPhones actually are dedicated gaming devices.  Here's a visual guide to clear this up.

Examples of Dedicated Gaming Devices (Devices designed specifically for playing video games as their primary function):

Examples of Mobile Phones (Devices designed specifically as mobile phones as their primary function):

Mobile phones are not considered "dedicated gaming devices that can conveniently make phone calls".  They are mobile phones first, that yes can do a wide range of other functions.  When a mobile devices sells, we do not track it as a video game system sale, a calculator sale, a calendar sale, etc.  It's a mobile phone.  

Last edited by Mandalore76 - on 10 May 2021

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Realistically, a switch pro will be , nativly, just one that can run 720p handheld and 1080p docked nativley.

HOWEVER.

unlike the other two, nintendo is working with nvidia.
DLSS exists and is frankly almost magic.

720p upscaled to 4k can give near native 4k with only a slight additional power draw.

if the pro has tensor cores... it would be near 4k performance docked.

hell they can use DLSS in a super saver battery mode for portable mode. run 360p or something and DLSS up to 720, and you might get better battery life.



Apparently an OLED company had confirmed Nintendo is at least looking into OLED for the next device.

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2021/05/oled_display_firm_mentions_switch_pro_during_its_q1_investors_call



I know Switch continues to amaze with its sales, but 45 million FY for any piece of gaming hardware is nearly impossible. Even if Switch hit 32 million or more, that would already be the all-time record. And that's about the highest I could possibly see.

And if the Switch somehow surpasses the PS2 lifetime sales, it won't be by more than a few million.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

Wman1996 said:

I know Switch continues to amaze with its sales, but 45 million FY for any piece of gaming hardware is nearly impossible. Even if Switch hit 32 million or more, that would already be the all-time record. And that's about the highest I could possibly see.

And if the Switch somehow surpasses the PS2 lifetime sales, it won't be by more than a few million.

Not to mention the fact that it wouldn't even be possible from a supply perspective.



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Kakadu18 said:

You clearly don't know what a dedicated gaming device is. Smartphones are not dedicated gaming devices.

Anyone can use any device as a "dedicated gaming device".

Either way, consoles are no longer dedicated gaming devices, we moved away from that during the 7th gen where consoles became media-centers.

And lastly... You don't have the authority to tell anyone to do anything.

Mandalore76 said:

You continue to gloss over the fact that I have stated "Dedicated Gaming Device" in every single one of my posts.  Worse yet, you seem to think that Android and iPhones actually are dedicated gaming devices.  Here's a visual guide to clear this up.

Examples of Dedicated Gaming Devices (Devices designed specifically for playing video games as their primary function):

Examples of Mobile Phones (Devices designed specifically as mobile phones as their primary function):

Mobile phones are not considered "dedicated gaming devices that can conveniently make phone calls".  They are mobile phones first, that yes can do a wide range of other functions.  When a mobile devices sells, we do not track it as a video game system sale, a calculator sale, a calendar sale, etc.  It's a mobile phone.  

Here is the kicker... And I know it's a shocker. But consoles these days come with a multitude of additional "features" like media players, web browsers, apps like Youtube/Netflix and more.

They aren't dedicated gaming devices and haven't been for years... It all comes down to how someone uses the device, if all they use the device for is gaming... Then by it's literal definition, it's a dedicated gaming device and thus the underlying form factor/operating system and/or technology is redundant.

Sorry for the late reply, had a few horrific jobs.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:



And lastly... You don't have the authority to tell anyone to do anything.

What do you mean?



Kakadu18 said:
Pemalite said:



And lastly... You don't have the authority to tell anyone to do anything.

What do you mean?

Sorry misquote, that was towards Rol.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

Pemalite said:
Kakadu18 said:

What do you mean?

Sorry misquote, that was towards Rol.

Dont use my thread to abuse you authority as mod by pointing out you have a bigger willy than Rol, its not done

Unless this isnt flexing your modauthority in that case keep pummeling Rol



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Pemalite said:
Kakadu18 said:

You clearly don't know what a dedicated gaming device is. Smartphones are not dedicated gaming devices.

Anyone can use any device as a "dedicated gaming device".

Either way, consoles are no longer dedicated gaming devices, we moved away from that during the 7th gen where consoles became media-centers.

And lastly... You don't have the authority to tell anyone to do anything.

Mandalore76 said:

You continue to gloss over the fact that I have stated "Dedicated Gaming Device" in every single one of my posts.  Worse yet, you seem to think that Android and iPhones actually are dedicated gaming devices.  Here's a visual guide to clear this up.

Examples of Dedicated Gaming Devices (Devices designed specifically for playing video games as their primary function):

Examples of Mobile Phones (Devices designed specifically as mobile phones as their primary function):

Mobile phones are not considered "dedicated gaming devices that can conveniently make phone calls".  They are mobile phones first, that yes can do a wide range of other functions.  When a mobile devices sells, we do not track it as a video game system sale, a calculator sale, a calendar sale, etc.  It's a mobile phone.  

Here is the kicker... And I know it's a shocker. But consoles these days come with a multitude of additional "features" like media players, web browsers, apps like Youtube/Netflix and more.

They aren't dedicated gaming devices and haven't been for years... It all comes down to how someone uses the device, if all they use the device for is gaming... Then by it's literal definition, it's a dedicated gaming device and thus the underlying form factor/operating system and/or technology is redundant.

Sorry for the late reply, had a few horrific jobs.

 It doesn't help you or anyone to be pedantic the fact is yes single media went the way of the dodo, modern phones are multimedia so are PC's and consoles and that happened a damn site early than Phones but it doesn't take away there underlying purpose people aren't paying scalpers for the multimedia functions of the next gen they aren't being sold on how good their web browser is .

Now  my point toward the OP is why would you turn the Switch into a pseudo 5G mobile phone when the market lure and money is in the billions of people already there in the ecosystem and it's been open for your business for years ,



Research shows Video games  help make you smarter, so why am I an idiot